UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

[Snowfall]

Correct. and to me that is the biggest takeaway from these 2 attacks.
the damage inflicted is an aside, a major aside, but this is the bigger of the two takeaways.

It sure as hell will make Russians question whether their government is actually capable of protecting them.

 

[Snowfall]

Worth noting that Russia only had six of these irreplaceable Soviet-era AWACS aircraft. Well, now 4.
I believe this means Moscow can no longer maintain constant, 24/7 over-the-horizon ballistic missile early warning coverage, at least for a portion. Specifically, if I recall correctly, there is one that is supposed to be above Moscow at all times. This would fulfil the role of air detection, and a component of over-the-horizon ballistic missile coverage. There are still other assets to the wider system, so this isn’t mission-critical.

All of these developments are even worse when you realize they’re not capable of producing more with the extent of sanctions and import restrictions.

 

[Sentry]

All of these developments are even worse when you realize they’re not capable of producing more with the extent of sanctions and import restrictions.

It's not just the sanctions/import restrictions. Russia simply doesn't have the same level of technical expertise the USSR had.

 

[Peter Griffin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929885787744809206

What an odd thing to tweet

 

[Snowfall]

What an odd thing to tweet

Probably in response to their new strategic plan which came out yesterday. People in England have been complaining about wasteful spending in regards to the proposal so my guess is they’re trying to influence more people to share that opinion.

 

[Snowfall]

It's not just the sanctions/import restrictions. Russia simply doesn't have the same level of technical expertise the USSR had.

I think they forgot Ukraine built a large portion of their military equipment .

 

[TruthandJustice]

What an odd thing to tweet

Another words, Britain should be at defcon 2 right now. We all know what happens when Russia explicitly says they are not going to attack.

 

[PeacePlease]

Didn't want to put this in the reports section but wanted to bring attention to this. Thoughts and assessments?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930025359384142114

 

[HoldFast]

Didn't want to put this in the reports section but wanted to bring attention to this. Thoughts and assessments?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930025359384142114

Russia can't win the war they already have on their plate. I'm a little out of the loop on the rhetoric against Latvia, so I welcome more information. At this point, I really doubt they would try to invade a standing NATO member....over what? What's the objective to expend even more blood and treasure that they don't seem to have.

 

[Sentry]

Didn't want to put this in the reports section but wanted to bring attention to this. Thoughts and assessments?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930025359384142114

Doubt this means anything, nonetheless it's a bit odd.

 

[Snowfall]

Didn't want to put this in the reports section but wanted to bring attention to this. Thoughts and assessments?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930025359384142114

Any other sources on this? I haven’t seen any discussion elsewhere.

 

[Gaijin]

Any other sources on this? I haven’t seen any discussion elsewhere.

Looks like it was taken from here

Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two)

Hlib Parfonov

jamestown.substack.com

Although I can't find anything beyond that

 

[alphaecho]

Looks like it was taken from here

Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two)

Hlib Parfonov

jamestown.substack.com

Although I can't find anything beyond that

I don't know if this source is reliable.

Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two) - Jamestown

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank...

jamestown.org

 

[Gaijin]

I don't know if this source is reliable.

Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two) - Jamestown

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank...

jamestown.org

Nor do I - just posting what the Twitter chap used as a reference

 

[Sentry]

I don't know if this source is reliable.

Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two) - Jamestown

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank...

jamestown.org

Nor do I - just posting what the Twitter chap used as a reference

Jamestown is quite reliable for what they do.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Russia can't win the war they already have on their plate.

I think this kind of says it. Russia is in a slog over Ukraine. What chance do they have against the entire Nato alliance?

 

[Sentry]

I think this kind of says it. Russia is in a slog over Ukraine. What chance do they have against the entire Nato alliance?

This is what German intelligence had to say:

Russia is preparing for a major conflict with the West, as indicated by the reorganisation of the Russian army, troop movements, and missile deployments in the western part of the country, as well as the expansion of Russian arms production.
The latter could lead to Russia doubling its military strength over the next five years compared to the present day, especially in conventional arms, according to a secret report.
"It can no longer be ruled out" that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory "from 2026 onwards," such as in the Baltic states or Finland, the report cited by Business Insider says.

German intelligence warns of Russian attack on NATO from 2026, media says

The German intelligence services have prepared an analysis of the military threat from Russia for the government, which predicts that "from 2026 onwards", it may attack the territory of NATO member countries.

www.pravda.com.ua

Russia could attack NATO by 2030, German intelligence chief warns

A group of German intelligence officials warned the Bundestag against Russia's "aggressive actions," with the conflict having the potential to spill out into NATO countries. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Danish intelligence:

The threat assessment states that Russia has already managed to increase its capacity to modernize military equipment and has significantly increased its military production.
According to Danish intelligence, Russia is already able to free up resources for its armament against NATO, “not least because of the financial and material support it receives from outside.”
The Ministry noted that if the fighting in Ukraine stops and NATO does not rearm at a sufficient pace, Russia will be able to wage a local war against a neighboring country in about six months.
In about two years, it will pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries, i.e., it will be ready for a regional war against several states in the Baltic Sea region.
And Russia could be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent, in which the United States would not be involved, in about five years.

Local war in six months and Russian aggression against the EU in five: Danish intelligence forecast

If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years

militarnyi.com

 

[alphaecho]

Just yesterday.

Britain is moving into "war preparedness" mode, Prime Minister Starmer has said"When we are threatened by countries with advanced militaries, the best deterrent is to be prepared and to demonstrate that we can defend the peace with force," he said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929494635648295108

 

[Snowfall]

This is what German intelligence had to say:

German intelligence warns of Russian attack on NATO from 2026, media says

The German intelligence services have prepared an analysis of the military threat from Russia for the government, which predicts that "from 2026 onwards", it may attack the territory of NATO member countries.

www.pravda.com.ua

Russia could attack NATO by 2030, German intelligence chief warns

A group of German intelligence officials warned the Bundestag against Russia's "aggressive actions," with the conflict having the potential to spill out into NATO countries. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Danish intelligence:

Local war in six months and Russian aggression against the EU in five: Danish intelligence forecast

If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years

militarnyi.com

I guess the biggest problem I still have with these statements is that it’s quite obvious Russia is going to need to rebuild its military since it’s been so heavily depleted. Of course they’re going to move some things being built into stockpiles since they’ve effectively depleted a large portion of the Soviet stockpile. They expanded the military district in the northwestern portion of the country in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO since they now have a thousand extra miles of border to patrol. All of these things make logical sense without constituting a threat, does that mean they don’t need to prepare? Of course not, but it seems more likely to me that these statements are being used to justify the defense spending needed to achieve this preparedness than as a result of actual need. What scares me more than anything is if both sides are reading each others movements as a threat creating one where wasn’t necessarily there in the first place.

 

[Tok'ra Operative]

How Russia Responds to Ukraine’s Drone Attack Depends on Trump

Trump needs to “defuse this situation,” said a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA.

foreignpolicy.com

I think we may have to return to Yellow Alert immediately - maybe even Orange. With Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal now in danger of being rendered kaput, the Russians are more likely then ever to launch a nuclear attack. Plus there's also the risk that NATO could feel more confident in taking preemptive action of their own.