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UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

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7gtz said:
Nate Vance is J.D. Vance's cousin.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1929161350296862923
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Don't know whether to applaud a successful strike or be appalled by the fact that JD's family not only has access to what seems like highly classified intel, but feels at ease blabbing it on Twitter.

Also, shouldn't it be "horrible" rather than "incredible" given that JD seems firmly on Putin's side in this war?
 
HoldFast said:
With all the classified intel leaking out from staff from the US Gov, I'm not suprised at all. Foreign governments have realized that if they want their plans to succeed, don't tell the US. Access to classified intel in the US needs an audit.
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Precisely. Trust takes years to build and seconds to destroy - especially in matters of life and death, such as these. Besides, it's common knowledge the MAGA movement is riddled with Russian agents of influence, and some of these agents may be strolling around the West Wing as we speak. No self-respecting enemy of Russia would (or should) take these odds.
 
Russia has (had?) somewhere around 50 operational Tu-95's. If even as low as 4 or 5 (reports go as high as 40, but that's absurd) are destroyed entirely, that's 10% of its fleet of those airframes. 10 destroyed? 20%. That's just Tu-95's.We (US) operate 19 B-2 Bombers. Losing just one of them sitting on a runway to a drone swarm operation that included smuggling trucks with hidden compartments full of drones to within miles of their location would be a catastrophe of a magnitude that I'm not eloquent enough to convey. It would be an intelligence failure, a force protection failure, a leadership failure, and a strategy failure.A 10% (20%? More?) reduction overnight in a strategic capability is not a small reduction in capability and won't be taken lightly. Russia will respond, and it'll be a big response. What exactly it is I'm not sure. It's not as though they weren't already hucking cruise missiles at cities, but I expect something beyond that. No, I'm not saying THAT and you know what I mean. Regardless, don't let this get set aside as "just another thing" from the War in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929218610850931166
 
PeacePlease said:
What do ya'll think. Does NATO particularly European members sleep easier tonight or does this change their posture a bit?
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Well, it was done with indigenous Ukrainian weapons, and not NATO supplied ones, so that was brilliant on the strategic effect. Russia can't really blame NATO for this one.

With the damage/destruction of strategic assets, I'm personally at a 4.
 
Interestingly, this firmly meets one of the nuclear doctrine triggers:

19. The conditions that enable the possibility of nuclear weapons employment by the Russian Federation are as follows:
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a) receipt of reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;

b) employment of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, against facilities and (or) military formations of the Russian Federation located outside its territory;

c) actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would disrupt response actions by nuclear forces;

d) aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) the Republic of Belarus as participants in the Union State with the employment of conventional weapons, which creates a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity;

e) receipt of reliable data on the massive launch (take-off) of air and space attack means (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned, hypersonic and other aerial vehicles) and their crossing of the state border of the Russian Federation.[11]
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Source
 
Russia only have ~55/60 functional TU-95s. The claim is 27 of them there hit, then a variety of TU22s, A50 and il-76 make up the other 14. Costs don't matter when it comes to strategic bombers with no production capacity, you could have a billion dollars and you could replace exactly 0 airframes because the factories that made them no longer exist.
As of 2025, Russia is producing about 4 Tu-160M bombers per year, using old Soviet-era airframes. No brand-new bombers are being built. Other strategic bombers like the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 are being modernised, not newly produced. The next-gen PAK DA is still in development.

en.defence-ua.com

russia Plans to Receive Four Tu-160 Bombers in 2025, Each Capable of Carrying 12 Missiles, But No New Aircraft Will Be Produced | Defense Express

What we should know about russia's plans to strengthen its strategic aviation
en.defence-ua.com en.defence-ua.com
 
Sidney Reilly said:
I don't think Ukrain should have had to notify the President of the United States of America when executing espianage and guerrilla attacks. That's just one step that could compromise the mission.

Look (if proven true) at who was possibly running former President Biden's administration toward the end. Who knows how mush top secret information was exposed by who knows how many people that shouldn't have had the access to it (again if proven true).

I know the relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine, particularly concerning intelligence sharing and military support, is complex. Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has the right to defend itself and conduct operations it deems necessary for its national security without asking permission or telling anyone.
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Or simply plausible deniability so that the implications of this attack in the near term are limited to the Ukraine Russian war.

Let’s hope Russia keeps calling this a terrorist attack and not a multinational support of a terrorist attacks against Russias strategic deterrence.

I think they will. Russia can’t escalate against the US conventionally risking dragging us and nato directly into Ukraine.

Risking an escalate to deescalate tactical strike is risky beyond belief. I guess we might see exactly what escalate to deescalate means for Putin and Russia. At this point I think they might be separate entities.

Ukraine seems to have pulled off a pretty creative and audacious strike.
Good for them.

Will be interesting to see how this impacts negotiations.

It will snap Russia to go postal or set down and negotiate quietly.
Expect a lot of bluster from Moscow these next few days.



One thing is for sure it has demonstrated how clearly and dramatically the way tech is changing the way wars will and can be fought.
My very first thought when I saw how deep in Russia these strikes hit were drawn to the large farms that Chinese entities have purchased near USAF bases in the states. Seems the potential is not just for eavesdropping.
My second was how we are going to have to be on guard for expansion of the patriot act rules.
 
PeacePlease said:
What do ya'll think. Does NATO particularly European members sleep easier tonight or does this change their posture a bit?
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Honestly if I was the government of Ukraine I would worry about decapitation strikes in response to this. That’s basically all the Russians have left to escalate short of tactical nukes and direct attacks on the west.
 
Socom7 said:
Don't know whether to applaud a successful strike or be appalled by the fact that JD's family not only has access to what seems like highly classified intel, but feels at ease blabbing it on Twitter.

Also, shouldn't it be "horrible" rather than "incredible" given that JD seems firmly on Putin's side in this war?
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He was going off of Public information and Ukrainian claims when he made that statement. Don't know where you got the notion that it is classified info when that number had been going around everywhere... And you might want to go and watch some interviews with the guy, he is not on good speaking terms with JD because of the War in Ukraine, not to mention yanno the fact that he went and fought hard with the Ukrainians.
 
-Surely a successfull attack which should be a huge reminder about the implications of the improvements of the tech around FPV drones.
-Not a game changer strategically speaking for Russia, strategic bombers are not meant to be used in retaliation in Russian’s nuclear doctrine.
-Wording is essential in Russian declarations (terrorist attack).
-Could lead to a quieter and more cooperative Russia during the next encounters towards a peace/truce.
-Could remember Putin how weak they are speaking about counter intelligence and how low is the quality of his military leaders compared to the West and china

After 3 years it should be pretty clear that Putin has no interest in expanding this war to the west.
Even less in using a nuke.
There had been frankly much more worrying situations in the past 3 years.
Including jeopardizing the EWS infrastructure.

And honestly…I just hope not to see again a rush to increase the DEFCON level on this community over this…as it happened with India and Pakistan.
 
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