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UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

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GBS61 said:
MESSAGE FROM THE UKRAINIANS:

"Stop your fake partisanship, you elected a president who wants to screw us! Go fuck yourself, Americans."

I agree with them; they are indeed angry.
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So I take it they would not like to become a US state like Alaska. Wouldn't that be a hoot. Ukraine on the western side and Alaska on the eastern side.
 
7gtz said:
1) Russia will not respect it.
2) Plays into their hands by putting the territorial integrity of Ukraine into question.
Put it this way. If a hypothetical superpower invaded the U.S. and they take California and Texas, would you as a U.S. citizen want there to be a vote to be held there supervised by a third power? Or would you ask the invaders to GTFO?
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I don't think we would ask. :ROFLMAO: You're forgetting one thing, America is a superpower while Ukraine is not. Wither we like it or not russia is and the jest I'm getting from this thread is advocation for boots on the ground combat between superpowers. I don't think that will end well.

Now maybe the US and EU could just keep supplying Ukraine with war material and let them continue to try to bleed russia till every Ukrainian from 16 to 60 is dead or maimed. Is this what we are advocating for?
 
OReid said:
There is no comparison, Ukraine has gotten screwed. I don’t like it but now it’s a question of what is doable. That Putin this week as far as I can tell has only talked about territory and not EU or NATO membership might be a hint. It’s slim I know this is a process not a done deal.
There has to be some inkling of security guarantees for Ukraine
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I can’t see Putin actually agreeing to that. They’ve sold the war to the Russian people as about NATO attempting to expand, so there’s no way they’d sign an agreement that wouldn’t outright forbid it or they wouldn’t be able to justify it to the population.
 
william said:
I don't think we would ask. :ROFLMAO: You're forgetting one thing, America is a superpower while Ukraine is not. Wither we like it or not russia is and the jest I'm getting from this thread is advocation for boots on the ground combat between superpowers. I don't think that will end well.

Now maybe the US and EU could just keep supplying Ukraine with war material and let them continue to try to bleed russia till every Ukrainian from 16 to 60 is dead or maimed. Is this what we are advocating for?
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I can tell you Ukraine doesn’t give two shits about what the United States think it should do with its territory.
 
william said:
I don't think we would ask. :ROFLMAO: You're forgetting one thing, America is a superpower while Ukraine is not.
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When I said "hypothetical superpower", I meant an imaginary country more powerful than the U.S.
You're reinforcing my point. This undermines the rules base world order that has been established and sets a terrible precedent that with the use of force you can change borders.
Nobody is advocating for boots on the ground with Russia. But I'd also correct you when you say that Russia is a superpower. The only part of them that is at par with the U.S. and China is their nuclear arsenal. In terms of literally everything else, the U.S. & China would steamroll Russia. It cannot be considered a superpower anymore.
 
7gtz said:
When I said "hypothetical superpower", I meant an imaginary country more powerful than the U.S.
You're reinforcing my point. This undermines the rules base world order that has been established and sets a terrible precedent that with the use of force you can change borders.
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I'm sorry to say but the use of force certainly can change boarders. Israel and Vietnam come to mind.
7gtz said:
Nobody is advocating for boots on the ground with Russia. But I'd also correct you when you say that Russia is a superpower. The only part of them that is at par with the U.S. and China is their nuclear arsenal. In terms of literally everything else, the U.S. & China would steamroll Russia. It cannot be considered a superpower anymore.
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I disagree with this statement. I would refer you here Armageddon’s New Arms Race: The 2025 Nuclear Buildup
 
7gtz said:
the U.S. & China would steamroll Russia.
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I don't know if China could "steamroll" Russia. While both do rely on throwing cannon fodder at the enemy, and China does outnumber Russia, I think Russia is slightly ahead of China militarily. Both countries do suffer from corruption, but Russia has a pretty good edge on rocket technology.

Given some more time, though, and China will be militarily equivalent to Russia.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I don't know if China could "steamroll" Russia. While both do rely on throwing cannon fodder at the enemy, and China does outnumber Russia, I think Russia is slightly ahead of China militarily. Both countries do suffer from corruption, but Russia has a pretty good edge on rocket technology.

Given some more time, though, and China will be militarily equivalent to Russia.
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Personally I'd disagree with that, I think the Chinese military has already overtaken Russia. Steamroll was hyperbolic though!
 
From outside the US it looks like Putin is going to be hosting Trump in Alaska. If you follow the news, it's clear that pretty much everyone is banking (and with good reason) on Putin playing Trump like a fiddle at that meeting.

More generally, this has all the hallmarks of a chaotic attempt by Trump to weasel out of imposing sactions on Russia, which he never intended to do in the first place. It's also testament to a complete collapse of US diplomacy - as no self-respecting leader would embarrass himself like that in front of the whole world.
 
OReid said:
There is no comparison, Ukraine has gotten screwed. I don’t like it but now it’s a question of what is doable. That Putin this week as far as I can tell has only talked about territory and not EU or NATO membership might be a hint. It’s slim I know this is a process not a done deal.
There has to be some inkling of security guarantees for Ukraine
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You are exactly correct. One more year of fighting has gotten the UA a big win and a nonexistent loss. As in possible EU membership and not possible, impossible NATO membership.

It’s actually a huge shift. The UA walks away with its current (more or less) ground imprint, and can join the EU.

NATO was not happening. <Insurance companies don’t write policies once the storm is named>

I think the sticking point will be how fast US troops/contractors can arrive to “provide security for our investments”.


The dust clears:

The UA loses the Crimean. Ouch. That must really hurt, but it was NEVER going be repatriated without a warm glow. Maybe not even then.

The fact that the UA has;

1) KIEV: a major triumph. The UA national guard and just GWG (guys with guns) ie ad hoc milita, won that battle against Russias finest. It was like the miricle on ice, but with guns. (Next Idiot on this site that says people with guns can’t stop the military need to have their nose whacked with a newspaper, 03 April 2022 Kiev edition as
~20,000 dudes showed up to fight. BYOG)

2) Controls ANYTHING west of the Donetsk (AMAZING)

3) Has held on in hard battle, for years until Russia would negotiate. Again amazing! See CIA fact book, populations UA vrs RU

4) The fact UA has inflicted well over 1,000,000 casualties upon the Russians invaders is jaw dropping. These are based on U.K. numbers 250K killed 750K wounded. The ISW in much higher with 950,000+ casualties.

This is incredible. As a result:

5) The UA retains over 80% of her country. At least half of the loss was break away regions they NEVER controlled.

The Beatdown:

100,000’s civilians displaced, injured and killed. Years to get final numbers which will still be estimates.

~40K UA killed in action

390,000 UA WIA

The numbers (from U.K. and ISW) represent a huge loss given the % of population. Clearly advanced weapons from the west made the difference.

•Small units were trained for years by the US Special forces and National Guard on a Land Air Battle doctrine, with emphasis on fighting withdrawals. Javelin missiles clearly with the main ingredients in the secret sauce. No one will again attempt armored combat without CIWS like trophy and probable lasers. (fun fact, looking at the shit storm that was the Ukraine caused the US to expedite and equipped every single helicopter with self-defense lasers. All of them. Virtually overnight. See any of the many videos of Russian Aircraft flying into combat…briefly)

•The clock ran out and Brigade and Division level combat training, western style was never mastered. The was evident during the one and only chance the UA had to possibly “Win” (not really) The west supported them far too late and the UA upper level officers failed to grasp the western concept of combined arms.

The delay allowed Russia to recover and dig in. The UA failed to cut the “land bridge” to the Crimean and with that lost the war. Lots of blame to go around.

In an unusual moment (for me at least)

The Russians get a nod at a job well done. Damn they do static (ish) defense well. They recovered, rearmed and dug in with multiple fighting positions, drone defenses and layered positions to allow passage of lines rather than the complete destruction of their forces. Sadly it was very well done.


So here we are.

No real movement in a year. This is always a win for the UA but it doesn’t look like it. It will take Russia over 40 years at the present rate to reach the Donetsk. So not going to happen. Writing is on the wall even for Putin. He needs to take the win, go home and figure out who he is going to invade next. I was going to take a country that start with an A, but Trump settled that one. Guess I go out on a limb and say any country ending in “Stan”
 
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william said:
Great, let's hear um. (y)
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Let’s see we’ve got the current path of supplying the bare minimum, we’ve got a maximum pressure campaign with secondary sanctions, the seizure of Russian assets to finance weapons, the abandonment of long distance strike restrictions, several classes of weapons we have chose to not provide yet, fully opening the flood gates on weapons deliveries instead of the pussyfooting around perceived escalation we’re doing now, and many many more routes to take. The Russian military might be able to throw bodies at the problem for a while, but when the government openly admits their economy is so bad the inflation rate is double digits and they have a 20% interest rate, that’s a big sign their economy can’t do this forever.
 
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