UA-RU-NATO War & Ukraine Peace Talks | Discussions

[DEFCON Warning System]

What would the lift on range restriction mean for Ukraine?

More strikes on Moscow and other critical structures in Russia.

 

[william]

So, I'm seeing reports of the west lifting restrictions on the use of western weapons and putin has revised the russian policy on the use of nuclear weapons if it feels that the survival of the state is threatened. They are playing a very dangerous game. German tanks and troops at assembly areas outside of Germany proper for the first time since WWII could very well be construed as a threat to the existence of the state. IMO

I have also read reports of russia talking about setting up a buffer zone or DMZ on boarders with Ukraine and the west. Right now, are they escalating to deescalate? Guess we'll see. I'm just glad I don't live in a target zone.

 

[Snowfall]

So, I'm seeing reports of the west lifting restrictions on the use of western weapons and putin has revised the russian policy on the use of nuclear weapons if it feels that the survival of the state is threatened. They are playing a very dangerous game. German tanks and troops at assembly areas outside of Germany proper for the first time since WWII could very well be construed as a threat to the existence of the state. IMO

I have also read reports of russia talking about setting up a buffer zone or DMZ on boarders with Ukraine and the west. Right now, are they escalating to deescalate? Guess we'll see. I'm just glad I don't live in a target zone.

Few points on this. 1. Germany came out and said nothing has changed in regards to those restrictions, I’m assuming his statement was in regards to the Biden administration allowing them last fall based on his “until some time ago” statement. Here’s a source for that one. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-range-ukraine-would-be-dangerous-2025-05-26/
2. Those troops have been stationed in the baltics for years on a rotational basis this is just putting them there on a permanent basis. The actual number of troops isn’t increasing much meaning this is more symbolic than actual practical.
3. They’ve been talking about setting up a buffer or “sanitary” zone since the start of the war. I copied this from a Reddit thread that lists every time they’ve mentioned it (yes it’s Reddit but all of these are verifiable)
“The first time this happened was on June 13, 2023. Then he said: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine shell the Russian Federation, a “sanitary zone” will be created; March 18, 2024 – says the same thing again; May 17, 2024 states that Russia is already creating a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region; May 28, 2024 again threatens with a “sanitary zone” – this time through long-range weapons; June 20, 2024 – says: a “sanitary zone” is supposedly being created in the Kharkiv region; January 31, 2024 – mentions the “demilitarized zone” (the essence is the same). March 12, 2025 – instructs to think about creating a security zone.”

 

[Torch]

Few points on this. 1. Germany came out and said nothing has changed in regards to those restrictions, I’m assuming his statement was in regards to the Biden administration allowing them last fall based on his “until some time ago” statement. Here’s a source for that one. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-range-ukraine-would-be-dangerous-2025-05-26/
2. Those troops have been stationed in the baltics for years on a rotational basis this is just putting them there on a permanent basis. The actual number of troops isn’t increasing much meaning this is more symbolic than actual practical.
3. They’ve been talking about setting up a buffer or “sanitary” zone since the start of the war. I copied this from a Reddit thread that lists every time they’ve mentioned it (yes it’s Reddit but all of these are verifiable)
“The first time this happened was on June 13, 2023. Then he said: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine shell the Russian Federation, a “sanitary zone” will be created; March 18, 2024 – says the same thing again; May 17, 2024 states that Russia is already creating a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region; May 28, 2024 again threatens with a “sanitary zone” – this time through long-range weapons; June 20, 2024 – says: a “sanitary zone” is supposedly being created in the Kharkiv region; January 31, 2024 – mentions the “demilitarized zone” (the essence is the same). March 12, 2025 – instructs to think about creating a security zone.”

As long as it is completely on the Russian side of the border I don’t really care. It’s a bunch of BS unless they invade to take it from their neighbors.

It is almost certainly going to be on captured land in the Ukraine, possibly it totality ().

According to German Government:
"There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine – neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans“

Trump hasn’t overtly announced that yet. Of course calling Putin crazy kinda puts an end to the bromance.



Edited to reflect reality and ground truth.

 

[Snowfall]

Additional informations​

Germany's Merz says Western allies no longer impose range limits on Ukrainian weapons​

"There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine – neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans…”

Client Challenge

The best decision here is the choice to not announce what arms they’re sending and when.

 

[Sentry]

Honestly don't think this is a big deal. Ukraine has already been attacking Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia for a while now, and it changed nothing. Calling Putin crazy publicly isn't something Vlad is gonna like.

German tanks and troops at assembly areas outside of Germany proper for the first time since WWII could very well be construed as a threat to the existence of the state. IMO

It's about 5,000 troops and one brigade. I wouldn't think that's enough to threaten the Russian state as a whole.

 

[Torch]

Honestly don't think this is a big deal. Ukraine has already been attacking Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia for a while now, and it changed nothing. Calling Putin crazy publicly isn't something Vlad is gonna like.


It's about 5,000 troops and one brigade. I wouldn't think that's enough to threaten the Russian state as a whole.

They have, in many if not most, been dropping the equivalent of a mortar bomb or extreme small diameter bomb. Now they can hit a refinery with several thousand pounds of cbu’s. Now you are possibly looking at the difference of put the refinery out of service for a period and knocking the refinery out of commission permanently. Obviously there are many permutations. But if the west does what it says it is doing, cruise missile might even strike at far Asia airforce bases, power plants and refineries. The UA can finally bring it to the Soviets <ah hem> the Russians.

IMO this is that last major step the west can take to support the UA and it should have happened 2 years ago. Next step might not be actual combat but it will be something like a no fly zone or Military advisors (Openly), NATO defense and occupation of several western Airbases, which will then protect western factories and warehousing. Slip and slide, fun for all

 

[Publius]

Honestly don't think this is a big deal. Ukraine has already been attacking Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia for a while now, and it changed nothing. Calling Putin crazy publicly isn't something Vlad is gonna like.


It's about 5,000 troops and one brigade. I wouldn't think that's enough to threaten the Russian state as a whole.

Trump has had a fairly strong popularity in Russia. Some samplings even higher than Putin.
Trump calling Putin crazy could be just as much of a headache for Putin. As labeling democrats crazy at home.

 

[william]

Honestly don't think this is a big deal. Ukraine has already been attacking Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia for a while now, and it changed nothing. Calling Putin crazy publicly isn't something Vlad is gonna like.


It's about 5,000 troops and one brigade. I wouldn't think that's enough to threaten the Russian state as a whole.

Will let's reverse this statement. Would 5000 troops and one brigade stationed in say cuba or panama be construed to be a threat to the US? What would the US response be if cruise missiles started hitting our capital?

 

[Sentry]

Will let's reverse this statement. Would 5000 troops and one brigade stationed in say cuba or panama be construed to be a threat to the US? What would the US response be if cruise missiles started hitting our capital?

In an already highly militarised region, I don't think it's a big deal personally. With respect to the U.S. response on cruise missiles hitting DC, obviously the US wouldn't be happy about it. I could see them striking supply chains and doubling down on massive strikes as Russia has been doing lately, but no I doubt they would engage China/Russia militarily over arms supplies to them.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Would 5000 troops and one brigade stationed in say cuba or panama be construed to be a threat to the US? What would the US response be if cruise missiles started hitting our capital?

Those are two different questions.

5000 troops and a brigade pose no threat to the US. They'd never make it to the shore.

On the other hand, Cuba lobbing missiles onto the US would quickly find a hole in the ocean where Cuba used to be.

 

[william]

They have, in many if not most, been dropping the equivalent of a mortar bomb or extreme small diameter bomb. Now they can hit a refinery with several thousand pounds of cbu’s. Now you are possibly looking at the difference of put the refinery out of service for a period and knocking the refinery out of commission permanently. Obviously there are many permutations. But if the west does what it says it is doing, cruise missile might even strike at far Asia airforce bases, power plants and refineries. The UA can finally bring it to the Soviets <ah hem> the Russians.

IMO this is that last major step the west can take to support the UA and it should have happened 2 years ago. Next step might not be actual combat but it will be something like a no fly zone or Military advisors (Openly), NATO defense and occupation of several western Airbases, which will then protect western factories and warehousing. Slip and slide, fun for all

I do not agree with a slow escalation of a western military presence in Ukraine. Sounds like Vietnam 2.0. Except russia is not Vietnam.

Either go all in or get the hell out. Old man Bush did it the right way IMO. Massive military buildup and invasion to kick the russians out of Ukraine is what needs to be done. Then you can set up a DMZ and the two armies can glare at each other across it.

 

[william]

Those are two different questions.

5000 troops and a brigade pose no threat to the US. They'd never make it to the shore.

On the other hand, Cuba lobbing missiles onto the US would quickly find a hole in the ocean where Cuba used to be.

I do not agree that Washington would not see combat troops in panama or cuba as a threat. I do agree that they would not make it to our shore.

 

[william]

In an already highly militarised region, I don't think it's a big deal personally. With respect to the U.S. response on cruise missiles hitting DC, obviously the US wouldn't be happy about it. I could see them striking supply chains and doubling down on massive strikes as Russia has been doing lately, but no I doubt they would engage China/Russia militarily over arms supplies to them.

Obviously

 

[Publius]

So I am sensing there is going to be an escalation of fighting in Ukraine and Russia.

I Just saw this. Falls in line with lifting the weapons restrictions.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1927485973002076194

Trump ‘Seriously Considering’ Lifting All Biden-Era Restrictions on Ukraine’s War Effort, Sources Say

US and German officials will discuss the next phase of Ukrainian support and Russian sanctions during meetings in Washington this week, including lifting range restrictions on interdiction in Russia.

www.kyivpost.com

Putin has, foolishly I think, rejected all attempts at a rational peace process.
He’s living in the past and still using Cold War soviet era dogma to run Russia.
It’s going to cost Russia more than they know.
And it will cost Europe as well.

 

[Snowfall]

So I am sensing there is going to be an escalation of fighting in Ukraine and Russia.

Putin has, foolishly I think, rejected all attempts at a rational peace process.
He’s living in the past and still using Cold War soviet era dogma to run Russia.
It’s going to cost Russia more than they know.
And it will cost Europe as well.

Trump needs to either put up or shut up at this point. He’s eroding any possibility of deterrence he has when he makes a threat and then immediately backs down without the Russians doing anything towards peace.

 

[Snowfall]

More threats..
Margarita Simonyan, Editor-in-Chief of the international media group Russia Today and the RT channel, suggested that Moscow might retaliate by striking Berlin should Taurus missiles hits the Russian capital.

Simonyan believes that the fact Germany allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to use long-range weapons without restrictions can only mean that the strikes will be carried out by German military specialists as Ukrainian servicemen do not know how to operate Taurus missiles, she noted.

Moscow May Strike Berlin Should Taurus Missiles Hit Russia

In Moscow's offices, they are discussing that if German troops strike Moscow with German weapons...

english.pravda.ru

Pretty much the same thing they said when the rest of the west did it.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

That's just some civilian making some wild, ridiculous guess, which will never happen in the current environment.

 

[Snowfall]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1927826239378624962

Again these threats would be effective if they hadn’t said the exact same thing for storm shadows and ATACMs then proceeded to do nothing.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Apparently Ukraine has now conducted operations in Vladivostok!

Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind the explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia's Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

kyivindependent.com

not laugh reacting you but the sheer fact that they are capable of that! Man that made my morning lol.