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United States Civil War

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Until commanders get official written orders, this is all speculation.
We don't know if written orders were received by any flag officers at the meeting in Quantico, but SECDEF has issued orders altering the ROE for troops on the ground. This is extremely dangerous territory we are entering.
 
Not as cut and dried as usually presented is it?

If local law enforcement fails to secure said rights then it is allowed.

So as far as a full blown civil war? Well if you think this is cause have at it.

PC operates with in the framework of the insurrection act and was never meant to be a suicide pac.
The insurrection act has two provisions for the president to act without governors approval. Restoring order if states refuse or are unable to restore order. Or to protect constitutional rights granted under the constitution.
First, he's not sending troops into states who are unable to maintain order; he's sending them to specific cities using high crime rates as the excuse. High crime rates do not necessarily equal an inability to maintain order.

I don’t want to see it come to this, but you know what it’s been a long time coming. Democrats have imposed laws and actions I find unconstitutional.
Agreed. I lost any respect for Obama when he signed then NDAA, which has a lot of unconstitutional components.

Sounds kinda like the three years that led up to the civil war doesn’t.
No, it goes back much farther than that, specifically to the 2008 election and the first black man in the White House. That started the division and the beginnings of what would eventually turn into the MAGA movement.
 
First, he's not sending troops into states who are unable to maintain order; he's sending them to specific cities using high crime rates as the excuse. High crime rates do not necessarily equal an inability to maintain order.


Agreed. I lost any respect for Obama when he signed then NDAA, which has a lot of unconstitutional components.


No, it goes back much farther than that, specifically to the 2008 election and the first black man in the White House. That started the division and the beginnings of what would eventually turn into the MAGA movement.
Agree to dis agree
 
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Elections means something and if you live in the city and you vote liberal after liberal you’re gonna end up with runaway crime and homelessness (that you can see).

We’re supposed to keep this non-political, but the framing that “vote liberal after liberal and you end up with runaway crime and homelessness” is inherently political. And it’s worth examining because it has become a considerable part of the Narrative backing what we’re seeing right now.

It seems that the idea is simple: if you have strong (read: conservative) leaders who “crack skulls” and cut off benefits, you either put people in jail or force them back into work, and the problem disappears. (There's a 3rd possibility, but I'll assume for now that's not planned.) But that doesn’t work. What’s on the table now isn’t solving homelessness, it’s punishing it and hiding it. According to statements out the White House, the plan is to force people into ghettos or tent camps outside of the cities, warehousing them out of sight so the “good people” don’t have to see them. Not only is it not a solution, it’s forced removal…and it edges dangerously close to some of the more terrible ideas in history and could easily tumble into something utterly horrific.

The roots of the crisis go back decades, and they’re bipartisan: deinstitutionalization in the 70s and 80s, housing shortages in the 90s, and conservative-backed moves like the 1996 welfare reform bill. But Republicans have been especially consistent in cutting housing funds and tightening benefits. I saw it firsthand in Indianapolis in the late 90s under Mayor Steven Goldsmith (considered a conservative Republican by the standards of the day). Even during the 80s crime wave, you didn’t see much visible homelessness in Indy. By the mid to late 90s, you did.

It’s true that most cities with visible homelessness are run by Democrats. But that’s because most big cities are run by Democrats. The handful of Republican-led cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, or Fresno have the statistically have the same struggles you’d expect in any large urban area, including crime and homelessness.

And crime is significantly lower today than it was even two or three years ago, and drastically lower than the late 80s and early 90s. The missing piece in the Narrative is perspective. We’re not comparing today’s crime rates to 1982 or even 2022. The comparison being implied is to 1962. The underlying message is “crime has been out of control for 60 years.” The implication of the Narrative is that we need to get back to the Law And Order we had before the Civil Rights Era and the Counterculture.

There’s a larger pattern emerging. First, sow chaos with policies and legislative choices that make democracy look broken and your opponents look foolish. Then, when the predictable results show up, claim that the system itself is the problem, that your opponents aren’t just wrong but enemies, and that only you can fix it with the authoritarian, anti-democratic measures your more extreme allies have been proposing for years. In this case, the playbook is to frame poverty and homelessness as moral failings enabled by the supposed decadence and permissiveness of those you've now framed as enemies of the people, while gutting the very systems that could address the problem. Then, when the crisis deepens, use it as proof that democracy has failed and justify an authoritarian solution: send in the troops. It feels like we're just one Tweet away from the dogs and firehoses of Birmingham in 30 cities nationwide.

The liberals aren't innocent. But, the root of the problem as claimed in the Narrative is at best reductive and the solution disingenuous.

Everyone wants peace and safety, but does this problem justify this solution? And do we really want to go back to 1963...or worse?
 
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To clarify my point of view (and why i'll ask some questions), i'll remind people that i'm a french citizen that never went to the US soil (beside a school visit to an US embassy in France when i was in middle school :ROFLMAO:), that knows about the US what i readed online and what told me american friends online and american studenst i met in France at university.

For a lot of French (and maybe europeans?), we have the feeling the Trump is kinda abusing his powers and trying to have more powers than what he should have as the US president.
There has been no abuse of powers until the courts rule. When the lower courts ruled against certain deportations. The Attorney General challenged those ruling and waited or reversed deportations. While waiting on a higher court decision
A president can enact policy’s and actions and courts can step in rule against him. If the president ignores the court ruling then that would be a usurpation of powers by the president.
People like to say the president is acting unconstitutional as an actual charge. But if the court does not overrule them it’s nothing. Now I have and still do maintain that many acts by presidents and the lack of court action is unconstitutional. But that is just my opinion.
Like what RiffRaff said, he said that he (Trump) will send troops to some majors US town ( LA, New York, San Francisco etc...), but those are all towns where his party (republicans) are in minority.
The Majority are sanctuary cities. Cities do not have a constitutional right to pass laws or protections for those who enter the country illegally. It is a matter of Separation of powers
Why should I a citizen of one state be forced to respect citizenship granted to a person by another state. When it is the federal government’s delegated duty to do so.
Quite simply it is usurpation of powers by these individual cities.
Why didn't Trump say that he will also send troops to Republican towns? I'm sure that there is also Republican towns that have a high crime rate. For me (and most europeans i spoke with about that), we "fear" that Trump will just use that as an excuse to fire the local democrat mayors/administrations by instauring federal governance. We (in Europe) also have little trust in Trump respecting the US constitution since he said publicly that he might not respect it (to have a 3rd term as president for example)
And we also have this feeling because Trump did used the police several times to serve his opinions, sometimes not really legally or in a way that looks like he just want to repress democratic opposition.
Well that’s a wild card possibility I suppose. But the courts would have to rule on that and as yet Trump has respected the final ruling of the federal judiciary.
Do americans also think about this possibility? Or no because it would be impossible for Trump to do that due to current US laws/constitution
Thus it would be impossible
And also, as a french, i'm really surprised that there is not an insurrection already happening in the USA. You're (the USA) are the country that claims to be the lands of the free, you have the right to bear arms specifically for that, and yet there is no big opposition on the street against Trump. While in France, we blocked the whole country for less than that (with blockade of highway, refineries, general strikes).
Liberals protest it’s part of their political culture. Conservatives in the US don’t protest, simple fact. Save for what happened Jan 6th. And that worked out so well for them. Held with no bail sometimes for over a year, withholding exculpatory evidence. Sending FBI agents all over the nation for a year to arrest people for basically misdemeanor charges. There is a not well documented joke in America “when conservatives get mad you will never hear them coming”

It’s is because we bear arms that we exercise forbearance of waging war on one’s own nation is a grave act and Americans by and large know that. I would propose there no widespread protest currently because most agree that sanctuary cities are unconstitutional and create havoc on those cities.
But it's true that in France, we do have a tradition and culture on protesting/rioting to defend our rights to the points that now, most french people know how to build a barricade, protect themselves against tear gas XD
Why is that? Because the right to bear arms is limited in European gov thus they have less to fear from citizens. So they let you riot from time to time without any real fear of removal. In the US for most of our history government officials served knowing that citizens/states have the right and power to reject outright and in whole cloth gov actions they oppose.
Of course, if i offended people with my opinions/questions, i apologize, it wasn't my intention, it was just some thought and questions from a french that looks at the US situation from afar and is curious to understand it^^
Not offensive in the least bit. Let me see if this helps. Because we are a republic. Think of US states as the separate nations of the EU. It is preemptively the individual states right and duty to exercise the right of insurrection. Constitutional conservatives know and believe this. An individual or group is nothing more than a John Brown wanna be. I do not have the right to take up arms against the government individually. It is the separate states right and duty to do this.
That is why Lincoln who waged war to keep the union together sent general Lee to Harper’s ferry to put down John browns insurrection.
Oh look another example of a president sending troops to put down a civil insurrection
 
Can any of these preceding arguments be presented from a more objective point of view instead of "party rho good, party delta bad"? Is there anything to be said about both parties moving towards their extremes? How about both parties taking steps to entrench their power by enacting certain administrative rules ("nuclear" options) or redrawing districts in a favorable manner? Or how about both parties acting like its more important to stay in power than it is to enact good law, or even a legislative pause? Or both parties holding their leader up as someone who does no wrong?

We are a two party system and BOTH parties are engaged in this wearisome and dangerous tango.
I believe I tried to present my argument sans party ideology except for one or two personal examples solely for clarity.
 
We talk about the Posse Comitatus Act as though it's sacrosanct. And I'm really afraid that's all just a waste of time and energy. I'd clung to that based on the deeply ingrained idea that norms and customs still apply, and our institutions can still serve as firewalls. I mean, that's what I've been told since childhood, right? That's been a core belief, right?

I've disabused myself of those notions.

One court challenge that winds its way to the Supreme Court giving them the opportunity to declare it unconstitutional, and it it doesn't matter.

It doesn't even have to get that far. A fully captured Congress can simply overturn it.

I wouldn't count on it standing beyond the end of the year if the administration faces any serious resistance.

But, also, if it gets that far...I'm actually more worried about government-sanctioned (either explicitly or implicitly) paramilitaries and irregulars operating outside of military order and discipline.
👍 except Paramilitaries and irregulars. It may happen and you may chose to worry about it, but for me that is dramatic but remote. It’s down below stocking toilet paper.

Hmm toilet paper is actually pretty high on my list (makes top ten) so I guess I will worry about that. Never mind . 😎
 
Why is that? Because the right to bear arms is limited in European gov thus they have less to fear from citizens. So they let you riot from time to time without any real fear of removal. In the US for most of our history government officials served knowing that citizens/states have the right and power to reject outright and in whole cloth gov actions they oppose.
I wouldn't say that the french gov isn't afraid of the french population. It's just different methods i would say. We have less gun culture here (we have guns, but they are seen to be used against other humans as last resort/murder/full blown civil war), but more of a protest/blockade things.

France did obtain most of its social rights (our republic, social healthcare, separation of religion and states etc...) with protests etc... Check the event of may 68, the grape farmer revolt of 1907 etc... i'm thinking that we obtained more here with riots than what US citizens obtained with a right to bear arms.

Trust me, french gov fears the citizen because in a matters of hours, we do have the power to block all highway/refineries/port/major institution and put the country to an halt, like 2 years ago with the farmers revolt or 6 years ago with the yellow vest movement (that did obtained real concessions from the gov)

i would say it's a matters of local culture and not that much of guns by itself. In the US, you have guns, in France, we have the capacity to organize real fast to block the country (which would be impossible in the US i would say, your country is too big, i'm pretty sure not enough US people are able to know how to organize a real protest, put barricade etc... and the unions in the US kinda seems powerless?)
 
We talk about the Posse Comitatus Act as though it's sacrosanct. And I'm really afraid that's all just a waste of time and energy. I'd clung to that based on the deeply ingrained idea that norms and customs still apply, and our institutions can still serve as firewalls. I mean, that's what I've been told since childhood, right? That's been a core belief, right?
Posse Comitatus works with and is interpreted against the insurrection act. Also even the PC act does not explicitly ban military action in the states. With or without states approval.
I've disabused myself of those notions.

One court challenge that winds its way to the Supreme Court giving them the opportunity to declare it unconstitutional, and it it doesn't matter.

It doesn't even have to get that far. A fully captured Congress can simply overturn it.
PC is not a constitutional provision. It was legislation past in 1878. New legislation can undo it completely, poof gone overnight and no court could object. Or higher courts can rule it was used legally by the president. That is our constitutional system.


I wouldn't count on it standing beyond the end of the year if the administration faces any serious resistance.

But, also, if it gets that far...I'm actually more worried about government-sanctioned (either explicitly or implicitly) paramilitaries and irregulars operating outside of military order and discipline.
That would be unconstitutional and illegal unless states called them up. Anyone who is advocating or participating in that would be treated as a criminal just as John Brown was. Unless the separate state governors called them up. There is actually a section in my states constitution that describes when and how the governor can do this.

Think about this. The FBI is nothing but a civilian federal paramilitary set up to chase criminals and insurrectionist. I know I’m stretching the description there. Just making a descriptive point. It’s a legal entity that can force compliance in the separate states. How in sprit is that any different than the federal military being used to force compliance?

Should I feel better about the outcome if it was the FBI who descended on Waco or the 82 airborne.

I’m not saying the FBI as a whole is ill-conceived. Just in the similarity of its use of federal force compared to using the military to do the same thing.
Why is in terrible for the federal government to take action in the separate states with the military? Yet we found a need to create a half dozen federal enforcement agencies to….. enforces federal will on the states or in this case cities.

It originally and even in 1878 with the PC was all about how much power the federal government has to force state compliance. It seems to me the federal gov has quite a bit of force, legal and otherwise to enforce its will on the states. Probably more than anytime in our history.
 
So, regardless of party affiliation, this is tantamount to a declaration of war against US citizens. He is prepping the US military to go into those cities, perhaps more, and perpetrate violence by American soldiers against American citizens. SECDEF Hegseth further added, “We also don’t fight with stupid rules of engagement. We untie the hands of our warfighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt, and kill the enemies of our country.”
Make no mistake, those "enemies of our country" are citizens of the United States.
I agree with your logic, but the thread is misnamed.

Years ago (way before Trump was reelected) I predicted - in these very forums - that the US would either morph into an authoritarian regime or descend into Civil War 2.0. The latter scenario would have been more likely if Kamala Harris had been elected - you will recall that there was a period (under Biden) when "secession" became a fairly fashionable word in the so-called red states, and even some DWS staff members openly declared themselves as secessionist.

This secessionist rhetoric died down with the reelection of Trump (for obvious reasons), so my money is now firmly on scenario #1. A political purge of the military is already in progress (it began with the sacking of the JAGs), and has now entered its overt phase ("If you want to applaud, you applaud. And if you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future.")

Referring back to the thread topic - a civil war is defined as a largely symmetrical conflict between two similarly organized forces (i.e. two militaries). I do not predict an "anti-Trump military" to emerge in the USA. Yes, there will be holdouts, there will be civil unrest, and you might even see a mutiny or two - but, by and large, the administration is now much better prepared to quash dissent and use the US military might to terrorize the civilian populace than it was under Trump 1.0.

I will not get into a discussion on which specific actions of the Trump administration are constitutional, and which ones aren't - because (1) I'm not a constitutional lawyer, and (2) that discussion is pointless. It is my personal opinion that the American society has now passed the stage where its constitution could potentially shield it from tyranny.
 
I’m not saying the FBI as a whole is ill-conceived. Just in the similarity of its use of federal force compared to using the military to do the same thing.
Why is in terrible for the federal government to take action in the separate states with the military?
Because soldiers are not trained to maintain order. They are trained to kill and destroy. The only scenario in which it makes sense to systemically use the military in a law enforcement role is when the government equates the former with the latter.

In all other circumstances you end up trying to use a tool to do a job it was never designed to do (while also preventing it from doing the job it was designed to do). That's a recipe for Bad Outcomes.
 
I wouldn't say that the french gov isn't afraid of the french population. It's just different methods i would say. We have less gun culture here (we have guns, but they are seen to be used against other humans as last resort/murder/full blown civil war), but more of a protest/blockade things.

France did obtain most of its social rights (our republic, social healthcare, separation of religion and states etc...) with protests etc... Check the event of may 68, the grape farmer revolt of 1907 etc... i'm thinking that we obtained more here with riots than what US citizens obtained with a right to bear arms.

Trust me, french gov fears the citizen because in a matters of hours, we do have the power to block all highway/refineries/port/major institution and put the country to an halt, like 2 years ago with the farmers revolt or 6 years ago with the yellow vest movement (that did obtained real concessions from the gov)

i would say it's a matters of local culture and not that much of guns by itself. In the US, you have guns, in France, we have the capacity to organize real fast to block the country (which would be impossible in the US i would say, your country is too big, i'm pretty sure not enough US people are able to know how to organize a real protest, put barricade etc... and the unions in the US kinda seems powerless?)
Agreed and the comparison wasn’t met as a criticism just a comparison.

Here if the military is sent in a state can challenge it legally through the courts. They can refuse to cooperate. Or that can use force of arms to prevent the federal military action.
In France I believe the military has a domestic civilian enforcement component. The National Gendarmerie.
Just over 100000 military soldiers/. Police

Posse Comitatis is very similar in its restriction as Germany and GB. Yet they can still be used
Great Britain had troops in Ireland from 69 to 07.
 
Because soldiers are not trained to maintain order. They are trained to kill and destroy. The only scenario in which it makes sense to systemically use the military in a law enforcement role is when the government equates the former with the latter.

In all other circumstances you end up trying to use a tool to do a job it was never designed to do (while also preventing it from doing the job it was designed to do). That's a recipe for Bad Outcomes.
Agreed. Civilian police and the FBI have law enforcement training and an understanding of the laws that do and do not apply in a particular jurisdiction. The main purpose of civilian law enforcement is to enforce the law.

The military are trained in military laws and warfare doctrine. Their main purpose is to kill people and break things.

There is an inherent incompatibility between their purposes and methods.
 
Agreed. Civilian police and the FBI have law enforcement training and an understanding of the laws that do and do not apply in a particular jurisdiction. The main purpose of civilian law enforcement is to enforce the law.

The military are trained in military laws and warfare doctrine. Their main purpose is to kill people and break things.

There is an inherent incompatibility between their purposes and methods.
The 1998 movie The Siege dramatizes possible scenarios of how military "law enforcement" might proceed differently than civilian law enforcement. Yes, it is fiction. Yes it is a dramatization and perhaps to an extreme. But the move does show how the tactics of military enforcement differs from the tactics of civilian law enforcement.
 
Agreed and the comparison wasn’t met as a criticism just a comparison.

Here if the military is sent in a state can challenge it legally through the courts. They can refuse to cooperate. Or that can use force of arms to prevent the federal military action.
In France I believe the military has a domestic civilian enforcement component. The National Gendarmerie.
Just over 100000 military soldiers/. Police

Posse Comitatis is very similar in its restriction as Germany and GB. Yet they can still be used
Great Britain had troops in Ireland from 69 to 07.
as well me, it was comparaison and not criticism.

About the gendarmerie, do not consider them as army-type unit. they have military status as history legacy. but they are totally a classic police unit ( they just handle police duty in countryside while the "police nationale" handles in town)
 
as well me, it was comparaison and not criticism.

About the gendarmerie, do not consider them as army-type unit. they have military status as history legacy. but they are totally a classic police unit ( they just handle police duty in countryside while the "police nationale" handles in town)
Same deal with the Carabinieri in Italy. Technically part of the military, but a police force in all but name.
 
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That would be unconstitutional and illegal unless states called them up.
It absolutely would be.

If anyone actually enforces the law.

I respect anyone who thinks this view is a little out there, and I hope you are right and I'm not. But, on a federal level and in certain areas based on the state and local governments and law enforcement agencies, a blind eye might be turned to those who are viewed as helping. What evidence to I have for this?
“I’ll tell you something that’s going to get me in trouble, but I couldn’t care less. The radicals on the right oftentimes are radical because they don’t want to see crime. They don’t want to see crime. They’re saying, ‘We don’t want these people coming here. And we don’t want you burning our shopping centers. We don’t want you shooting our people in the middle of the street."
-President Donald Trump, 9/12/25

“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by. But I’ll tell you what, I’ll tell you what, somebody’s got to do something about antifa and the left because this is not a right-wing problem.”
-President Donald Trump, 9/29/20

There is a pattern of the president expressing tacit approval for right-wing vigilantism. I find it hard to believe that if this whole mess started to devolve, he would aggressively pursue and prosecute irregulars who acted in support of the military, even if that bled over into some things that could be reviewed as revenge for what happened in Portland and other cities during the BLM period. And state and local enforcement would largely depend on the commitment to democracy held by governors, mayors, sheriffs and police chiefs. In some areas, local law enforcement would stop it. In some, they'd turn a blind eye, and in a few, they'd likely become complicit at least at the individual level.

If we slide down that slope...well, history shows us where that goes.
 
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