I have seen this site in blue and yellow before now and not bee overly worried. I suspect that if it changes again I will take it more seriously - certainly so if Russia related.
The red line is not what specific type of military action is taken by Ukraine with western weapons. It is what military strike might lead to the destabilization of Putin’s leadership.
So theoretically one could argue any military strike might destabilize Putin’s power. And it has been argued here and internationally. Just as HMMRS were claimed to be this red line. Or tanks, jets or even the continued supply of military aid.
So we can’t honestly say anymore what might be the proverbial redline.
There very well might be no redline short of course of nato forces invading Russia or a actual nato launch against Russian territory.
There’s disagreement over fault and that is largely influenced by how far back one wants to go in judging precipitating events. The maiden revolution of 14, or Russias continued overt influence of Ukraines politics prior to that.
Ukraine was to be an independent nation. Russia disproportionately influenced their politics for the 20 years prior to 2014. The US saw a opportunity and nudged anti Russian sentiment in 14.
Who’s more at fault? Who knows Russia influencing politics in neighboring nations is not completely unjustified. The US influencing western leaning trends in Ukraine is also not particularly unrealistic or unwise.
What have the Ukrainian done since is what matters to me.
Why is this important? It’s important because our personal evaluation of who is at root to blame determines our perspective and significance of every news report or developing incident from that point on.
The people of Ukraine were willing enough to show up and fight in significant enough numbers to stop the dreaded Russian invasion and drive them back to a virtual stalemate.
That is not corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs doing this alone it’s the willingness of Ukrainians to fight and die against a larger nation and army.
In my logic flow chart that should count as a significant determinant in justness of cause and self-determination.
It is the exact same type of situation as the Vietnamese willingness to fight against the south Vietnamese government.