US Strategic Oil Reserve & Commercial Supply at Critically Low Levels

[RiffRaff]

Primary source on Reuters, but I originally saw the initial indicators back in May when an AutoZone memo was allegedly leaked regarding oil shortages within 90 days. Possibly a conspiracy theory, but both Toyota and Nissan also sounded similar alarms back in May, so I'm leaning towards it being legitimate.

Here is what is not in question: US SPR fell to 311 million barrels last week due the government tapping it to keep US gas prices artificially low. The lowest operational level is supposed to be 316 million barrels due to the logistics of how they store it. That is both an economic and natural disaster of unprecedented proportions waiting to happen.

As of July 10th, total oil supplies in the United States was at 726.2 million barrels, counting both commercial supply and the SPR combined.

The United States consumes approximately 20 million barrels PER DAY, on average. You do the math. Even if they completely drain the SPR, which they theoretically cannot do, this country has approximately 35 to 45 days of oil supply remaining. This is assuming they keep releasing oil from the SPR into the domestic market as they have been at somewhere around 3 million barrels per day. A fuel crisis unmatched by anything in US history is due to hit sometime in September at the absolute latest. This will make the oil crisis after Hurricane Katrina look like a minor market anomaly.

I've been seeing too many energy analysts say the same thing to ignore this.

Beyond the economic ramifications, what happens when the US military starts to run low on fuel?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-fall-by-51-million-barrels-lowest-2026-07-20/

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

The US should never have touched the Strategic Reserve for political reasons. Keeping gas prices low is not a reason to raid the supply.

 

[RiffRaff]

The US should never have touched the Strategic Reserve for political reasons. Keeping gas prices low is not a reason to raid the supply.

I agree, but Biden instituted a significant drain on the SPR because of Covid, and the current administration is instituting a significant drain to keep consumers happy before we could replenish it from the previous administration. This is going to come back to bite us in the ass hard. Some countries are already there and are rationing what little supply they have left. If the US hits a wall on oil supplies, everything comes to a screeching halt. Supply chains collapse completely because shipping companies can't afford fuel. Farmers won't be able to harvest this fall if they can't afford fuel. Both of those scenarios combined turn into a massive food shortage that most Americans do not know how to cope with.

You think Covid lockdowns were bad? Imagine fuel rationing and travel restrictions for every American and grocery stores unable to keep their shelves stocked.

The really huge problem is that even if the wars ended today and oil shipping returned to normal, it would take 45 days minimum for the first shipments to hit US supplies. We are very close to a critical tipping point.

 

[Irag8er]

Biden instituted a significant drain on the SPR because of Covid

Are you sure, honest question.
If I recall correctly, during the pandemic, oil demand collapsed, and oil prices even briefly turned negative.

Wasn’t it in 2022, something like 150 million barrels after Russia invaded Ukraine?

 

[RiffRaff]

Are you sure, honest question.
If I recall correctly, during the pandemic, oil demand collapsed, and oil prices even briefly turned negative.

Wasn’t it in 2022, something like 150 million barrels after Russia invaded Ukraine?

I'd have to go back and look at the chart to double check the year, but that might be possible.

 

[Irag8er]

I'd have to go back and look at the chart to double check the year, but that might be possible.

Either way, you are absolutely correct pointing out the seriousness of the depletion.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Imagine fuel rationing and travel restrictions

I have an electric car.

 

[william]

Maybe we should stop exporting gas. At least till the wars over.

U.S. Exports of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

 

[Irag8er]

I have an electric car.

Where does the electricity come from?
And don’t say the outlet

 

[william]

I have an electric car.

Me to!

 

[Publius]

Biden sold SPR’s to China in 2022

Biden Sells Oil to China from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

It is not enough that China is buying Russian oil at a discount due to western sanctions put on Russia…

www.instituteforenergyresearch.org

And yes the SPR are extremely low but not as low as Biden’s sell down in 22

U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

The differences is US oil production is also at record highs.

It needs fixed that is correct, and it is risky. The offer question though is current US oil production and refining actions going in the right direction.

 

[Publius]

Biden sold SPR’s to China in 2022

Biden Sells Oil to China from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

It is not enough that China is buying Russian oil at a discount due to western sanctions put on Russia…

www.instituteforenergyresearch.org

And yes the SPR are extremely low but not as low as Biden’s sell down in 22 correction thru April of this year

U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

The differences is US oil production is also at record highs.

It needs fixed that is correct, and it is risky. The offer question though is current US oil production and refining actions going in the right direction.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Where does the electricity come from?
And don’t say the outlet

Power plants. Coal, wind, nuclear, solar, hydro, bio, and petrol.

 

[Dr Arthur]

Where does the electricity come from?
And don’t say the outlet

Those annoying wires that connect to the house? Just kidding but unfortunately a lot of people never really think about that so long as it works when they turn a switch.

 

[RiffRaff]

Maybe we should stop exporting gas. At least till the wars over.

We can't. Domestic oil is light sweet crude, but our refineries are designed for heavier sour crude. So we have to export our domestically-produced oil in order to import the oil that are refineries are designed to process. If we attempt to process our domestic oil through our domestic refineries, production drops significantly due to the wrong equipment in place, and supply would not keep up with demand.

Seems kind of short-sighted on our part, but I have yet for an administration to ask my opinion.

 

[RiffRaff]

Where does the electricity come from?
And don’t say the outlet

In the US, a large percentage of electricity is produced by coal, hydro, nuclear, solar, and wind. Oil is used primarily, but not exclusively, for transportation.

 

[Publius]

We can't. Domestic oil is light sweet crude, but our refineries are designed for heavier sour crude. So we have to export our domestically-produced oil in order to import the oil that are refineries are designed to process. If we attempt to process our domestic oil through our domestic refineries, production drops significantly due to the wrong equipment in place, and supply would not keep up with demand.

Seems kind of short-sighted on our part, but I have yet for an administration to ask my opinion.

Thats true our last refinery was built to refine Venezuelan heavy crude back in the late 70’s and 80’s
The Marathon oil refinery opened in 77 and was built to process heavy crude, specifically from Venezuela.
Fracking had not shown its optimal potential. And heavy crude from Venezuela was the closest option.
Instead activist and politicians have fought fracking and regulatory changes to facilitate new oil refineries from being built for almost a half a century!!
While at the exact same time fought any improvements of the pipelines from Canadian fields.
One would almost come to the conclusion this was not stupidity but rather premeditated subversion.

That we have regulated and repeatedly restricted the building of new refineries to process US light crude points clearly to either failed policies or outright harmful policies to premeditatedly hurt the US economy. Either of which is equally egregious.

Or doing absolutely nothing about Venezuela for 2 1/2 decades. All while listening to the swan song politicians, activist and Hollywood morons sing about the equality and justice of Venezuelan socialism. Or the repeated and unending efforts by politicians and activist doing everything possible to restrict the economical transport and modernization of pipelines from Canadian heavy crude fields. One would think, by this juncture it would be self evident where in the American political system either idiocracy reigns or subversion exist.

At the port of Brownsville a large refinery has been approved and is being built in conjunction with Indian investment. What two significant things come from this? It enlarges US refining capacity and it strengthens economic and security ties with India. A twofer, sounds like a win to me.

I wont mention which administration is instituting these fundamental changes to US energy production. I wouldn’t want to make the thread overtly political.

 

[RiffRaff]

Thats true our last refinery was built to refine Venezuelan heavy crude back in the late 70’s and 80’s
The Marathon oil refinery opened in 77 and was built to process heavy crude, specifically from Venezuela.
Fracking had not shown its optimal potential. And heavy crude from Venezuela was the closest option.
Instead activist and politicians have fought fracking and regulatory changes to facilitate new oil refineries from being built for almost a half a century!!
While at the exact same time fought any improvements of the pipelines from Canadian fields.
One would almost come to the conclusion this was not stupidity but rather premeditated subversion.

That we have regulated and repeatedly restricted the building of new refineries to process US light crude points clearly to either failed policies or outright harmful policies to premeditatedly hurt the US economy. Either of which is equally egregious.

Or doing absolutely nothing about Venezuela for 2 1/2 decades. All while listening to the swan song politicians, activist and Hollywood morons sing about the equality and justice of Venezuelan socialism. Or the repeated and unending efforts by politicians and activist doing everything possible to restrict the economical transport and modernization of pipelines from Canadian heavy crude fields. One would think, by this juncture it would be self evident where in the American political system either idiocracy reigns or subversion exist.

At the port of Brownsville a large refinery has been approved and is being built in conjunction with Indian investment. What two significant things come from this? It enlarges US refining capacity and it strengthens economic and security ties with India. A twofer, sounds like a win to me.

I wont mention which administration is instituting these fundamental changes to US energy production. I wouldn’t want to make the thread overtly political.

Poor long-term domestic energy policies transcend political parties across multiple generations.

 

[Publius]

Poor long-term domestic energy policies transcend political parties across multiple generations.

They absolutely do which makes one wonder why supposedly different political parties across multiple generations would repeatedly produce stupid policies.

Which is the larger supposition to make?
that this is just some cosmic coalescing of stupid short sight people into positions of power.
Or might it actually be directed and facilitated?

I can acknowledge it certainly could just be stupid or short sighted greedy people in power.

It also could be by design towards a desired end game.

 

[Peter Griffin]

EIP Oil & Gas Watch

Spotlighting the environmental impact of oil, gas, and petrochemical buildout in the US.

oilandgaswatch.org

Just some food for thought
Would be great if this refinery hadn't been delayed..