France and German refusal of the Ukraine entrance into the NATO, I think that it something we have to consider in not so serious way. The Ukranian leadership is moving toward NATO and, if nothing else stops this process, Ukraine will finally enter NATO. In other words, if Ukraine will not enter NATO, it will not be thanks to France or Germany, but for Russia. I suppose that Russia will finally prevent this by hook or by crook.
In my opinion, the situation in Ukraine has an "explosive potential". Can we imagine that the situation in Lybia has the potential to go to DEFCON 1? No. But, can we imagine that the situation in Ukraine has the potential to go to DEFCON 1? Yes, it is thinkable. But "someting" has to happen until DEFCON became 1! For example, even if hypothetically Russia an Belarus invade Ukraine, DEFCON 4, in my opinion, will be excessive, because until NATO is not directly involved in some way, there are simply no risk that the conflict goes nuclear. But, if Russia invade Ukraine AND NATO or Russia pose a NO FLY ZONE on Ukraine, then, DEFCON has the potential to became 4. But 4 is not a "stable" position, so, at that point it can become 3 very quickly.
But the fact that nothing new is happening, makes me think that no one want be the first to go "hard".