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Poll: Do you agree with DEFCON's analysis of the current Ukraine situation?

Do you agree with DEFCON's assessment of the Ukraine situation

  • Yes - Ukraine shows no signs of erupting into a nuclear war

    Votes: 20 64.5%

  • No - Ukraine has potential to erupt into a nuclear war

    Votes: 5 16.1%

  • Unsure

    Votes: 6 19.4%
  • Total voters
    31
AmC said:
I don't know why he is calm like that, must be a reason.
But this is the most serious situation that has occured ever.

Chineese troops enter Myanmar, Chinese carriers are near Japan,
US carriers are in the Black Sea and the South China sea facing off with China's vessels.
Russia has sent 250,000 additional troops from the east towards the west, there are russian tanks on the border of the Baltic States, Poland and on the whole border of Ukraine.

Sources are all over the internet...

It's now only a matter of hours or days until the freaking WW3 starts.
My advice is something between Defcon 2 and 3.

Prepare your bags, shelter or even try to leave the cities and other areas near primary targets.
Fallout can be deadly in around 150 miles around them.

And which I often ask myself is: How can we get radiation readings from this website after the EMP?
Even if his servers aren't affected, our computers,the Internet and the powerlines, power plants are destroyed
and all electronics too. It's impossible.
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  • I don't know why he is calm like that, must be a reason. - Because most of what you claim below cannot be verified and in fact I see no evidence for much of it.

  • But this is the most serious situation that has occured ever. - A dubious claim I will not debate.

  • Chineese troops enter Myanmar, Chinese carriers are near Japan, - I see no evidence of Chinese troops in Myanmar. Chinese naval vessels are free to navigate in open waters just like anyone else. If you've seen evidence of them violating Japan's sovereignty than please present that in the form of links to credible information.

  • US carriers are in the Black Sea and the South China sea facing off with China's vessels. - The Eisenhower left the Med on Friday and went south through the Suez so that is no longer true. Again, US naval vessels are free to transit open international waters like the SCS and do so all the time. There's nothing new about that.

  • Russia has sent 250,000 additional troops from the east towards the west, there are russian tanks on the border of the Baltic States, Poland and on the whole border of Ukraine. - Please share with us where you got the 250k number. There are always Russian tanks on the border of the Baltic States, etc. Russia protects it's borders diligently. So again, nothing new here.

    Will Russia take the Donbas? Maybe. Will they take all of Ukraine. Not yet, probably. But maybe. Will NATO get involved? Extremely unlikely. I am not trying to minimize your concerns, per se, but, I don't want to see you or anyone so stressed out. This just isn't that serious, at least not at this time.
 
I am Afraid that during this April the World will move as close the global nuclear war as it happened in October 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis. Only the talent behaviour of president Kennedy prevented our World from the total catastrophe. New we have old President Biden and very aggressive president Putin. The roles have changed from 1962 and the crisis is now in the Russian backyard. Hopefully the World could survive. The key players are the the Biden headquarters and the generals of NORAD.
 
CreepyMonkey said:
  • I don't know why he is calm like that, must be a reason. - Because most of what you claim below cannot be verified and in fact I see no evidence for much of it.

  • But this is the most serious situation that has occured ever. - A dubious claim I will not debate.

  • Chineese troops enter Myanmar, Chinese carriers are near Japan, - I see no evidence of Chinese troops in Myanmar. Chinese naval vessels are free to navigate in open waters just like anyone else. If you've seen evidence of them violating Japan's sovereignty than please present that in the form of links to credible information.

  • US carriers are in the Black Sea and the South China sea facing off with China's vessels. - The Eisenhower left the Med on Friday and went south through the Suez so that is no longer true. Again, US naval vessels are free to transit open international waters like the SCS and do so all the time. There's nothing new about that.

  • Russia has sent 250,000 additional troops from the east towards the west, there are russian tanks on the border of the Baltic States, Poland and on the whole border of Ukraine. - Please share with us where you got the 250k number. There are always Russian tanks on the border of the Baltic States, etc. Russia protects it's borders diligently. So again, nothing new here.

    Will Russia take the Donbas? Maybe. Will they take all of Ukraine. Not yet, probably. But maybe. Will NATO get involved? Extremely unlikely. I am not trying to minimize your concerns, per se, but, I don't want to see you or anyone so stressed out. This just isn't that serious, at least not at this time.
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It seems to me that the world since post WW2 has always been a power keg with the potential for nuclear war at any movement. The world has been walking in a metaphorical field of land mines forever now
 
CreepyMonkey said:
Will Russia take the Donbas? Maybe. Will they take all of Ukraine. Not yet, probably. But maybe. Will NATO get involved? Extremely unlikely. I am not trying to minimize your concerns, per se, but, I don't want to see you or anyone so stressed out. This just isn't that serious, at least not at this time.
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You just wait and see.
Then you learn the difference
between your opinion
and my reality.
 
GoD said:
You just wait and see.
Then you learn the difference
between your opinion
and my reality.
Click to expand...
That's a pretty arrogant attitude, especially considering you have provided no evidence that your "reality" is any more valid than his "opinion." When it comes to OSINT analysis, *everything* is an opinion, but it's backed up by trusted, reliable sources of information.

If you have reliable sources of information that contradict the current analysis of the situation, please, by all means post it. Otherwise, your reality is simply of your own making and lacks any substance to be taken seriously.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
The DEFCON Warning System believes the current Ukraine situation will remain a local issue and that Western powers will not get directly involved.

At this time, the alert condition remains at DEFCON 5.

Do you agree with this assessment?
Click to expand...
Yes the system is to be aware if nuclear war breaks out but recently Ukrainian supporters held an “emergency meeting” talking about Russia’s involvement in the “ceasefire” violations. If NATO hears word of this this could be enough proof to let Ukraine join and if NATO does get involved in this then there would be “consequences” from what Russia said
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
It caught my attention.

However, I can not find a source for that.
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Here's the official press release from the Russian MFA: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4667010

Translated.
We drew attention to the aggressive information campaign launched recently by Ukraine and a number of Western countries that are trying to accuse Russia of escalating tensions in the Donbass and on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The aggravated situation in the east of Ukraine , provoked by the Kiev authorities themselves, as well as the planned military training activities of the Russian armed forces, which are regularly held in Russia during this period of time and do not exceed the scale of past years, were chosen as a pretext .

We consider such a policy of disinformation and propaganda as actions designed to create the necessary information background and divert attention from Kiev's own military preparations in the Donbass, Ukrainian sabotage of the implementation of the Minsk agreements and an increase in the military activity of NATO countries in Ukraine.

Currently, Kiev continues to pull new forces and weapons to the contact line in Donbass and violate the ceasefire.

At the same time, there is an increase in the activity of the armed forces of the NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine and in the Black Sea in the immediate vicinity of the Russian borders. In 2021, it is planned to conduct seven joint exercises on Ukrainian territory with various countries of the alliance. Intelligence activities of foreign states in Ukraine along the borders with Russia and the line of contact in Donbass have significantly intensified, using aircraft and electronic equipment. Financial and logistical support of the Ukrainian armed forces from NATO countries, the supply of lethal weapons, and the training of Ukrainian military personnel by Western instructors continue.

All this does not contribute to security in the region, the settlement of the conflict in Donbass and causes serious concern on the Russian side. We call on Ukraine and the NATO countries to end the hysterical Russophobic propaganda campaign, to stop military preparations and the escalation of tensions in Donbass and to refrain from actions that could lead to destabilization of the situation in eastern Ukraine. We stand for the settlement of the conflict in Donbass exclusively by peaceful means on an uncontested basis of the Minsk Package of Measures, approved by UN Security Council Resolution 2202 .
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I think this image is older. I scrolled through all of Liveuamaps posts for March and haven't seen it.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1379855453459513352
 
Last edited:
DEFCON Warning System said:
Thankfully, that doesn't talk about using nuclear weapons. I'm looking for Russian television debating their use. Since Russian media is (generally, not wholly like China) is controlled by the government, it could signal what the government is thinking.
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Edited my post. I haven't found anything recent. I think that image is old.
 
Kushan said:
Edited my post. I haven't found anything recent. I think that image is old.
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Check April 6th, it's there. I still take it with a grain of salt mostly because Russian media does stuff like this all the time, but that's my opinion.
 
I'm going to answer the original question posed, yes I agree with it but I can understand why people don't.

A lot of folks, even myself at one time, thought that DEFCON was more of a general examination of threat, not necessarily just nuclear. We knew it was primarily used to gauge the the likelihood of a nuclear attack but I guess many folks thought that that was just because if there was some sort of global war possibility, that it would no doubt revolve around nukes being used, but that didn't necessarily mean that it was just used for nukes.

So to a lot of people, while they may agree that the threat of a nuclear attack may be minimal, the possibility of war with Russia is something that they feel is practically imminent and want some sort of idea of where we stand in relation to that, how close we are to a major war. Same goes for a possibility of a war with China, Korea, probably even Iran and Pakistan. They want to know what sort of prepping they should be doing, and what sort of signs to look for, for an impending escalation with any or all of the aforementioned countries.

So essentially throughout March, people were reading about Ukraine/Russia, and about Chinese flights over Taiwan, as well as any other news about Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, etc., and are expecting us to be at a bit higher readiness level come April, at least a 4 if not a 3 because, surely, with all this news that seems to point towards WWIII, there's no way we can stay at DEFCON 5. Many would even argue that 3 of the 6 are in fact nuclear nations (Russian, China, Pakistan) while another 2 (North Korea and Iran) either claim to be developing/have nukes or there's a strong suspicion that they're trying to build some, this itself, combined with escalating tensions, should raise the DEFCON Level. So I guess to some, after a month of discussing all of these possibilities on the forum, they're probably expecting a broader analysis, and it, to them, comes across as a very narrow evaluation only focusing on whether or not we're at risk of getting nuked.

I'm not saying it should be higher, but essentially I get why people do. They're expecting the DEFCON level not to just reflect the likelihood of an imminent nuclear attack, but to also reflect the overall likelihood that we could enter into a conflict with any number of nations openly hostile to NATO/EU/Western Nations/Allies, especially those with nuclear capabilities/suspected nuclear capabilities.

Feel free to disregard this idea as I've essentially just been a lurker on here for the past 7 years, since the initial Crimean conflict that everyone is now following. But maybe just a little line somewhere, either on the site where it's always visible, or the very top of the updates, that just reminds people that the DEFCON level is just simply judging the likelihood of us being nuked in the near future, or of nuclear war in general, or whatever the overall purpose of the DEFCON level examination is. That way, maybe you guys will have less people confused as to why we're at a particular level.

Not a criticism, I think you guys are doing great and your updates are comprehensive, easy to follow, and include plenty of information as to why the level is where it is. I just think a lot of people are just looking at everything going on in the world and are judging things as one mass of rather than focusing on specific areas and are expecting you guys to do so as well.

Thanks for all you do!
 
NovicePrepper said:
They're expecting the DEFCON level not to just reflect the likelihood of an imminent nuclear attack, but to also reflect the overall likelihood that we could enter into a conflict with any number of nations openly hostile to NATO/EU/Western Nations/Allies, especially those with nuclear capabilities/suspected nuclear capabilities.
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You bring up some very good points.

The reason why our alert level is so hyper-focused on the nuclear threat is to keep the alert level pure.

If we were to raise it whenever there was the possibility of conflict -- any kind of conflict -- we would be at DEFCON 3 all the time. That introduces what has been termed as "alert fatigue". The alerts become meaningless and, when we do have to raise it for a real nuclear possibility, no one will listen to it.

So we only raise the alert level when, in our opinion, there is the movement toward nuclear war. This makes our alerts much more rare, and the public more more willing to take them seriously.
 
So we only raise the alert level when, in our opinion, there is the movement toward nuclear war. This makes our alerts much more rare, and the public more more willing to take them seriously.
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The the impossibility of checking for the Defcon Level in time at the right time is the main problem which renders this procedure useless.
Dogs that bark, don't bite. In a conventional war with a nuclear armed nation, no one can tell when the critical moment for nuclear attack comes.
 
ROCKETS READY

Putin ally warns that crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as Russian launches anti-aircraft missiles on border​

This is the same video but with english subtitles so you can understand it.
www.thesun.co.uk

Putin ally says Ukraine crisis could go NUCLEAR amid border missile launches

ASTONISHING claims made on Russian state TV suggest that Vladimir Putin should consider going nuclear if NATO doesn’t back down on their demands over Ukraine. The crazy doomsday threat, made by a n…
www.thesun.co.uk www.thesun.co.uk
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I don't speak the language, and I have no idea when that video was filmed.
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This is a state controlled channel and they discuss a possibility of a nuclear strike on a neutral territory (quote "somewhere in the ocean") to send a signal. Russian state media is primarily for internal audience so I doubt this is even a "signal" like someone mentioned earlier.

Otherwise I agree that right now it doesn't look as serious. In the worst case scenario if Ukraine army decides to begin a large assault we will likely see a Georgia 2008 situation, with no NATO involvement for 2 reasons: 1. Russia will only go as far as to defend, but would not go into non-rebel territory and 2. Using this situation for imposing more sanctions and consolidating EU countries around this as a far more beneficial action for US.
 
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