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Nato Members May Send Troops To Ukraine, Warns Former Alliance Chief

DEFCON Warning System

DEFCON Warning System

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A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at the alliances’s summit in Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said.

Rasmussen, who has been acting as official adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Ukraine’s place in a future European security architecture, has been touring Europe and Washington to gauge the shifting mood before the critical summit starts on 11 July.
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I am not sure I agree with this person's opinion. But given his position and access, there may be something to the claim. OTOH, Poland may be expressing a frustration rather than signaling an actual plan. And even if true, what kind of troops? And if non-fighting, how would Russia respond? The same or differently if NATO troops were actually shooting at them?

As the saying goes, "This is going to get worse before it gets better."
 
Poland wants a chance to kill Russians. Of all the fomer Warsaw Pact Slaves…oops I mean members. Of the members I have met, the Poles are the most spiteful and genuinely pissed off at Russia and Russians. I can see them entering the war solo if things started to go badly for the UA.
 
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DEFCON Warning System said:
I am not sure I agree with this person's opinion. But given his position and access, there may be something to the claim. OTOH, Poland may be expressing a frustration rather than signaling an actual plan. And even if true, what kind of troops? And if non-fighting, how would Russia respond? The same or differently if NATO troops were actually shooting at them?

As the saying goes, "This is going to get worse before it gets better."
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Might just be tough talk to get the US into line on support for Ukraine.
OR he genuinely believes troops are on the table for Ukraine if the US support diminishes/stops.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
Might just be tough talk to get the US into line on support for Ukraine.
OR he genuinely believes troops are on the table for Ukraine if the US support diminishes/stops.
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Considering he's a former NATO secretary general I'd argue for the first option, it's probably just tough talk to "scare" the US back into line for support to Ukraine.
 
Moved my own comment
OReid said:
I’m going to do what I do and ask the question.
Will this incident motivate or instigate nato to intervene directly?
I’m 505/50 on this right now. I’m sure it’s being talked about or brought up.
Optically it’s a sufficiently horrific enough to point to it as just cause.

The narrative battle is full steam ahead to shift the blame one way or the other.

We should take care to not make a misstep. It could end it quickly or it could turn into a high stakes quagmire.
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Is there any precedent for this? Let's say Poland gets angry at what they perceive is a lack of support and sends troops into Ukraine by itself. Then Russian troops kill Polish soldiers. Is that considered an attack on NATO? Or are the Polish troops considered outside of NATO authority at this point since it wasn't a unanimous agreement by NATO to send troops in?
 
Theodosius19 said:
Or are the Polish troops considered outside of NATO
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The NATO article gives it a lot of grey room. Even though it was not a NATO operation since they were attacked they can invoke the article of collective self-defense.

To put it simply an attack however it came to be is all that is required to invoke the alliances Collective Defense Initiative.

So yes they could invoke the article even if it was their own mistakes that caused it. However it will be up to the alliance members whether they agree to help them or not as it is in anycase it must be discussed, reviewed by all members, and approved before action is taken.
 
Totality said:
However it will be up to the alliance members whether they agree to help them or not as it is in anycase it must be discussed, reviewed by all members, and approved before action is taken.
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Though there are certain emergency situations where NATO can take control without such discussions or approval.

Like if say London was nuked resulting in the annihilation of all their leadership and there was no more British civilian government. Than NATO can takeover British military if no one is left to run things in a decapitation strike. Though it's never happened so it's all theoretical... thankfully.
 
Dissident Elephant said:
There’s an oldish but goodish book called “On the Beach” where this happens. The book follows an America submarine captain that transfers his vessel to Australia after the entire Northern hemisphere is annihilated.
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they made a film on that one didn't they? or miniseries or something
 
Theodosius19 said:
Is there any precedent for this? Let's say Poland gets angry at what they perceive is a lack of support and sends troops into Ukraine by itself. Then Russian troops kill Polish soldiers. Is that considered an attack on NATO? Or are the Polish troops considered outside of NATO authority at this point since it wasn't a unanimous agreement by NATO to send troops in?
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They are outside of NATO. Poland can not invoke Article 5 if they go into Ukraine and then start getting shot at.

It would be like the US invoking Article 5 during the Gulf War.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
They are outside of NATO. Poland can not invoke Article 5 if they go into Ukraine and then start getting shot at.

It would be like the US invoking Article 5 during the Gulf War.
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It's still possible. The article gives wide grey room. But doubt members would approve Polands request which is what I said above.

So no it won't happen. BUT Poland still can invoke the article. Again THOUGH approving miltary action by the alliance needs to happen first with the consent of the other NATO members which it will likly not be approved by other members since such a incident would be their own shortcomings.
 
Back to the earlier hypothetical of Poland entering the Ukraine alone. I don’t think they would ask for or receive help for loses IN Ukraine.

However under any fair reading of Nato treaties and obligations, if Russia then attacked ANYTHING in Poland or any Ship at sea or Aircraft outside of the Ukraine, then Article 5 is valid (and IMO Russia gets its ass stomped until they use a nuke then who knows.)

Very dangerous situation.
 
Torcher said:
Back to the earlier hypothetical of Poland entering the Ukraine alone. I don’t think they would ask for or receive help for loses IN Ukraine.

However under any fair reading of Nato treaties and obligations, if Russia then attacked ANYTHING in Poland or any Ship at sea or Aircraft outside of the Ukraine, then Article 5 is valid (and IMO Russia gets its ass stomped until they use a nuke then who knows.)

Very dangerous situation.
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That in general is a tricky question.
If Pols were in Ukraine fighting under flag. Then Polish territory was then subsequently attacked. I think there are a few nato nations who would see that as a violation of the treaty membership by the Pols.
There would be a lot of back door diplomacy going on there
 
Torcher said:
However under any fair reading of Nato treaties and obligations, if Russia then attacked ANYTHING in Poland or any Ship at sea or Aircraft outside of the Ukraine, then Article 5 is valid (and IMO Russia gets its ass stomped until they use a nuke then who knows.)
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I don't think that would apply. If Poland goes to war against Russia on Ukraine's side, then Poland assets become a valid target no matter what.

But let me caveat that saying that the assets would have to be participants. For example, if a Poland ship started throwing missiles at a Russian ship and Russia sinks Poland's ship, that would not invoke Article 5.

It gets stickier if the target is in Poland itself. Because we are talking an undeclared war.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I don't think that would apply. If Poland goes to war against Russia on Ukraine's side, then Poland assets become a valid target no matter what.

But let me caveat that saying that the assets would have to be participants. For example, if a Poland ship started throwing missiles at a Russian ship and Russia sinks Poland's ship, that would not invoke Article 5.

It gets stickier if the target is in Poland itself. Because we are talking an undeclared war.
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what if Poland strikes Crimea or Donbass or God forbid deep inside Russia proper?
 
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