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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS (Closed)

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YHWH's_Sentinel said:
I am actually on the opposite side of the fence here. In regards to Russia, things are beginning to take a pretty good toll on the leadership of Putin. Generals inside of Russia are reportedly taking matters into their own hands and -at times- reportedly denying orders. While none of this has been confirmed, the fact there is a resistance burning busses inside of Moscow lends credence to the fact that there is a growing faction against Putin. Much like the USSR was a loose knit conglomerate of states that the Soviet Premier needed to keep somewhat happy, so too is the power structure inside of Russia. While Putin has been the strongman for some time, it appears that others are beginning to sense weakness. Combine this with the fact that it appears the Ukranian Counter Offensive may be showing some signs of success and the fact that the West continues to supply Ukraine with increasingly advanced weaponry; Putin is being backed into a proverbial corner.

While I do not believe that he will attack the West, I am not positive that this line holds for Ukraine. In fact, I would believe it does not. As such, I would be rather concerned about a WMD being utilized somewhere within Ukraine to end this war. Now, Putin says he cares about Eastern Ukraine and that he wants to reunite them with Russia. As such, he may not want to travel this route due to this notion. However, he is not willing to cede Crimea or have a hostile & Western connected nation directly on his doorstep. He is losing a plethora of men, machines and credibility. At some point he needs to stop the bleeding. The more the Ukraine advances, the higher the possibility of a WMD in my opinion.
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You are on the opposite side of the fence only on the conclusion in which you think that WMD could be used. I don't think so: at the moment, IMO, we can nearly consider that Russia is not at all a nuclear nation. In order to use nuclear weapons, it's needed to have the power to escalate the conflict. If you can't, or you wan't, then it's like you don't have nukes at all: no one can really think than one can pass from blowgun, to the machine-gun on the blue. So, no one can think that Russia could pass from a conventional war in which it has the maximum defensive posture possible, without any kind of resolve or initiative, to nuclear war, without passing from an escalation, or without putting VERY clear a REAL red line, exposing CLEARLY the consequences. For example: Rasmussen said that in the coming NATO meeting in Vilnius will be decided that military drills will be permanently held in Ukraine. This means: NATO troops in Ukraine. So, if Russia says, with a real formal ultimatum - so not Medveded writing a tweet while sitting on the toilet in company of Prigozin - that NATO forces in Ukraine will be considered part of the conflict and that they will be hit and, in the meantime, are taken officially measures for a further mobilization... THEN we could say that there is a risk. But, until Russia does nothing, Rasmussen says that it don't care at all on what Russia think about the drills, and Putin shrugs, it seems very very unlikely the use of a WMD. The most likely scenario is that NATO will do its drills, while Russia will progressively retreats until it will be met a kind of agreement in which some regions will be return to Ukraine after the necessary time in order to evacuate Russian and pro-Russian population into Russia. I don't even exclude that the dam of Kakovka is been destroyed by Russia, in order to have a "good" excuse for a retreat due to "force majeure", instead that for loosing combats. I found very strange that there is the video of the shelling of the dam of the last year... and then there is NO video when the dam collapses! It would be shown if it was mined. And I don't believe at all to the version of the spontaneous collapse due to the past shellings: a dam is supervised. Someone would surely have noticed that the dam was a risk of collapse and the Russia, if it was in good faith, should have said to the international community that the dam was a risk of collapse.
 
Irag8er said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1669715451524333569
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What a load of shit. They can't do anything. Lol. Not to mention Western air defense in Kyiv cock blocks them to do so.

It's been well past a year and still no gains. Their not holding back they just have nothing left expext what comes out the factories. They are a weak, incoherent, corrupt, and incapable military. Very strange some think Russia is holding back. This notion lacks common sense or the facts on the ground.

Not sure how people have not learned the lesson yet that Russia is just one big bluff. They never where that great or powerful. All they have to make them notable is nukes. That's it and their not going to use them. At least not how things stand now.

It's honestly stark and pathetic a rebel battalion can just sweep through Russia virtually unchecked. Russia is weak, they never where that great.

Also kinda off topic but this shows Western weapons are highly superior to Russian and absolutely devastating/effective against Russia. China should take close note of that.
 
Totality said:
It's been well past a year and still no gains. Their not holding back they just have nothing left expext what comes out the factories. They are a weak, incoherent, corrupt, and incapable military. Very strange some think Russia is holding back. This notion lacks common sense or the facts on the ground.
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Russia still has the China Option. Institute a draft and then send waves of soldiers against Ukraine.

Totality said:
Also kinda off topic but this shows Western weapons are highly superior to Russian and absolutely devastating/effective against Russia. China should take close note of that.
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Russia has been doing better with their defensive line. But only because they are dug in. So Ukraine is slogging through at the moment. If the defensive line collapses, we'll see rapid gains again by Ukraine. If the line holds, and Ukraine's counter-offensive collapses, this could turn into a years-long stalemate.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Russia still has the China Option. Institute a draft and then send waves of soldiers against Ukraine.


Russia has been doing better with their defensive line. But only because they are dug in. So Ukraine is slogging through at the moment. If the defensive line collapses, we'll see rapid gains again by Ukraine. If the line holds, and Ukraine's counter-offensive collapses, this could turn into a years-long stalemate.
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Agreed.
Also, to an extent Russia is doing a mini-China option via Wagner sending prisoners over the top into enemy machine guns.

Once Russian defensive positions start to break down, Russian infantry will struggle to reorganise into new defensive lines. I imagine it'll be a bit chaotic, and Ukraine will take advantage of that chaos and get some hefty encirclements and surrenders en masse.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
not the bits and pieces
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300,000-400,000 is not bits and pieces. Again look what good it did.

They didn't have the supplies or weapons for just the 300,000 that they drummed up. What makes you think a larger number will do any better?

They can send a million soldiers won't make a difference if they can't equip them properly due to a general lack of everything for them. Or use them effectively.

This whole thing has been a strategic blunder for Russia and has shown us they are nothing at all what the West was fooled into thinking they where by their bluffs/tricks/propaganda.
 
Totality said:
hey can send a million soldiers won't make a difference
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Sure it will. A million ants can overwhelm an elephant.

I'm not saying it would be efficient. I'm not saying it would not be pyrrhic. I'm not even saying it would be successful. I am saying that they could do it.
 
If Russia can barely equip 300,000 soldiers there is no way they could do a full mobilization. They don't have the equipment, weapons, uniforms, and everything else.

A bigger draft won't make a different. It will go as well as their first draft. A lot of dead Russians, defecting Russians, or what men are left in Russia fleeing the draft. They would essentially be sending them to the front lines with sticks and stones, and the shit on their back they entered the army with.

What makes anyone logically think they can pull off a bigger draft if their first one failed miserably ontop of that the same issues still plaguing them that caused them to fail the first time still have gone unsolved for them. They have not changed, all the same problems still plague the Russians from their first failed draft.
 
Totality said:
A bigger draft won't make a different. It will go as well as their first draft. A lot of dead Russians, defecting Russians, or what men are left in Russia fleeing the draft. They would essentially be sending them to the front lines with sticks and stones, and the shit on their back they entered the army with.
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Pretty much. Still, with enough men, they can certainly achieve something. Don't underestimate a million ants.
 
Torcher said:

Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Will Get Training On Sweden’s JAS-39 Gripen​


www.thedrive.com

Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Will Get Training On Sweden's JAS-39 Gripen

Sweden say Ukraine wants an "operational evaluation" of Gripen, which could point to an interest in acquiring the jets in the future.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com
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Which variant? (My guess is C model) It makes a shipload of difference in this case. This nice little jet runs from ho hum to Fracking awesome. The absolute top of the line might be better then the latest block F16 (IMO).
 
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Torcher said:
Which variant? (My guess is C model) It makes a shipload of difference in this case. This nice little jet run from ho hum to Fracking awesome. The absolute top of the line might be better then the latest block F16 (IMO).
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I would still stick with ANY model F-16 because of maintenance and spares, HOWEVER they are fully NATO compatible which means (drum roll……) SLAMMERS for everyone! Yes, that means Aim 120’s and their follow ons. I believe that would change the dynamic of the Russian bomber attacks on Ukraine pretty much after one use. (Maybe two the Russians seem slow on the uptake.)

Oh sorry to non Aviators and enthusiast…. What that means is the Jets would have more range with their missiles from Ukrainian controlled airspace to shoot down the Russia bombers, then the bombers if they got close enough to launch their cruise missiles. It will push back the Bombers so that they can no longer hit western Ukraine or Kyiv.

The AIM120 is a self contained missile system that seeks and destroys targets using radar all by itself. They are like velcoro. The moment they came out everyone wanted them.

They are devastatingly effective. We (US and NATO) put them on everything now even Humvees for ground launch with a little booster on the bottom.
 
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Do you think we are seeing the main thrust of the counter offensive or still just probing trying to confuse the enemy and looking for weakness in their lines?

How hard do you think it is on a modern battlefield to stage large amounts of men and material in preparation for the main thrust with eyes in the sky watching everything and do you think the west is helping with the eyes in the sky problem?
 
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