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Discussions --Lead Up to Talks & US Military Intervention Against Iran Nuclear Facilities Threatened When Talks Fail

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Question for anyone in the know… what weather conditions are conducive to a strike on Iran? For example, Taiwan has a window coming up… can the U.S. military launch an air and ground campaign year-round without hassle?
Barring some extreme weather events (which generally don't occur in that part of the world), weather is a complete non-factor when it comes to putative US airstrikes against Iran.

A ground campaign would be a whole different can of worms, but there's no indication the US is preparing for a ground war with Iran.
 
The crypto market is just crashing down slowly, especially the past 3 days, so I'm guessing that's just indication the talks aren't working and the bombing will end up happening? I mean the small guy doesn't motivate the cryptomarket it's the big-guys (money). The middle east is known to hold a lot of crypto, same for Asian markets.
 
The crypto market is just crashing down slowly, especially the past 3 days, so I'm guessing that's just indication the talks aren't working and the bombing will end up happening? I mean the small guy doesn't motivate the cryptomarket it's the big-guys (money). The middle east is known to hold a lot of crypto, same for Asian markets.
You can sometimes tie these big dips in crypto to governments liquidating assets to fiat. “Time to spend some money, we going to war.”

This is the beginning of a massive economic shitstorm. War typically follows.

I wonder what Iran is doing to prepare…
 
You can sometimes tie these big dips in crypto to governments liquidating assets to fiat. “Time to spend some money, we going to war.”
This is the beginning of a massive economic shitstorm. War typically follows.
I wonder what Iran is doing to prepare…
I would say that view is incorrect for several reasons:
  • Crypto is a tiny niche in the global economy, and notoriously volatile to boot;
  • Governments do not hold major crypto assets (though Trump recently announced that he wanted to create a "crypto reserve" in the US) so there's nothing to "liquidate";
  • While commodity prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, they typically go up and not down when conflict is anticipated.
 
I would say that view is incorrect for several reasons:
  • Crypto is a tiny niche in the global economy, and notoriously volatile to boot;
  • Governments do not hold major crypto assets (though Trump recently announced that he wanted to create a "crypto reserve" in the US) so there's nothing to "liquidate";
  • While commodity prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, they typically go up and not down when conflict is anticipated.
The United States has over 100,000 BTC in its reserve. There’s a country in Africa that has BTC as a legitimate currency. China is the largest BTC miner. I’m sorry but to state that major governments do not hold crypto is categorically incorrect.

The crypto market is a tiny niche, yes. That allows governments to manipulate it without significantly affecting the global economy.

Liquidating crypto is as easy as hitting the sell button. It’s near instant cash. Crypto prices aren’t a commodity.

Now GOLD on the other hand, is way up. Over $3k an ounce. All time high.

You actually disproved your own point there.
 
The United States has over 100,000 BTC in its reserve. There’s a country in Africa that has BTC as a legitimate currency. China is the largest BTC miner. I’m sorry but to state that major governments do not hold crypto is categorically incorrect.
Actually, the US holds over 200,000 BTC, worth approximately 17 billion USD by today's prices. It's not a "reserve" - rather, it's seized cash from criminal activities; primarily the following:
By comparison, the value of the US gold holdings (which are a proper reserve) currently stands at approximately 860 billion USD.

By "a country in Africa" I assume you mean El Salvador, the only country in the world that currently has BTC as legal tender.
(Btw., El Salvador is a Central American country.)

Now GOLD on the other hand, is way up. Over $3k an ounce. All time high.
You actually disproved your own point there.
No, I did not; you misread what I wrote. I made no statement regarding the likelihood of a US/Iran war (in fact, I regard it as likely). I only claim BTC prices are a piss poor indicator of potential military conflicts. As for gold, it has indeed been trending upward - and that's a much more ominous sign.
 
They aren't just going for nuclear facilities I feel like.
Deploying several strike groups and confirming the movement of five B-2 bombers suggests a posture beyond limited strikes. Military planning always considers worst-case scenarios, and while the primary goal may be to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, the presence of such powerful assets indicates readiness for escalation if Iran retaliates aggressively.

The U.S. is likely signaling to Iran and regional actors that it’s prepared for a broader conflict if necessary, deterring Iran from overreacting.

The critical factor is whether the Ayatollah and Iran’s leadership truly believe their own propaganda or maintain enough pragmatism to avoid national suicide. Iran’s leadership has historically shown a mix of ideological zeal and strategic calculation, but if they genuinely buy into their rhetoric of invincibility or martyrdom, they could miscalculate and escalate beyond their capabilities. Given their weak air force and limited military capacity, full-scale war with the U.S. would be catastrophic, and rational survival instincts should prevent that, but ideology can override logic. Look no further then Hamas/Gaza.


@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Torch @Irag8er thoughts? Agree?
 
Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, ratified in January 2025, includes significant military and defense cooperation elements, which went under the radar for many at the time.

Quick brush up;
Key Military Aspects of the Treaty:

1. Mutual Defense Clause (Unofficial but Implied):
While not explicitly called a mutual defense pact, the agreement outlines "enhanced military coordination and joint security initiatives" aimed at addressing external threats. Given the geopolitical context and both nations' adversarial stance toward Western powers, this is widely interpreted as a quasi-mutual defense understanding.

2. Joint Military Exercises & Training:
The treaty formalizes joint military drills, maritime operations, and war games between Russian and Iranian forces. This extends beyond previous naval cooperation in the Caspian Sea to include "joint strategic defense exercises" near the Persian Gulf and other sensitive regions.

3. Technology Transfer & Arms Sales:
Russia has agreed to supply Iran with advanced missile defense systems, fighter jets, and cyber warfare capabilities. This includes:

S-400 air defense systems (beyond the S-300s already delivered).

Su-35 fighter jets, with deliveries expected to begin in mid-2025.

Upgrades to Iran’s drone and missile programs, particularly concerning ballistic missile technology.

4. Intelligence Sharing & Cybersecurity Cooperation:
The agreement mandates closer cooperation between Iranian and Russian intelligence agencies, particularly for "countering Western cyber threats and electronic warfare." Russia is reportedly providing advanced cyber capabilities to Iran, enhancing its offensive and defensive cyber operations.


5. Logistical Support & Military Presence:
Russia is now permitted "limited military basing rights" in Iran, particularly for maritime operations and air support in the region. This includes docking rights in Iranian ports for Russian warships and limited airfield access.

6. Drone Production & Supply Chain Collaboration:
Russia and Iran have agreed to establish joint drone manufacturing facilities in Iran, ensuring a consistent supply of attack drones like the Shahed series, which Russia has used extensively in Ukraine.

👉 This treaty essentially ties Iran and Russia into a formal military partnership one that now complicates any U.S. or Israeli action against Iranian nuclear sites.

THIS IS SOMTHING a lot of people have over looked. Russian military 'entanglement' with Iran now formaly ratified between the two nations.
 
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1. Mutual Defense Clause (Unofficial but Implied):
While not explicitly called a mutual defense pact, the agreement outlines "enhanced military coordination and joint security initiatives" aimed at addressing external threats. Given the geopolitical context and both nations' adversarial stance toward Western powers, this is widely interpreted as a quasi-mutual defense understanding.
What exactly does it say regarding that? Russia is probably phrasing things so they aren't obligated to get tangled up in something they don't want to be.
 
Russia is probably phrasing things so they aren't obligated to get tangled up in something they don't want to be.
Are you coming from the assumption that Russia is too bogged down in Ukraine to engage in another confrontation? Which that doesn't fully take into account or reflect the flexibility of their military capabilities. Russia hasn't been using its most advanced stockpiles in Ukraine and has been relying on older technology. That could mean they still have considerable reserves of modern weaponry and resources to deploy elsewhere if necessary.

The alliance with Iran shifts the geopolitical landscape in my opinion. Russia's support for Iran could be seen as a way to hedge their bets and solidify influence in the Middle East, especially if there’s the potential for conflict with the West AND their loss of Syria.

In addition, if the U.S. and Israel do indeed take military action against Iran, Russia could respond in ways that escalate the situation, especially with its nuclear and conventional capabilities still intact regardless of Ukraine. The treaty may give them a clearer path to supporting Iran militarily, either through direct intervention or by supplying critical resources and technology.

So, it's not just a matter of Russia being "too busy" in Ukraine, but rather that the geopolitical reality is much more fluid, and Russia is still a major power with the means to act when it chooses.

For lack of better words, I regularly 'sh*t' on or crudely make fun of the Russian military. But the reality is that Russia is still a credible threat and, in my opinion, still holds a large stockpile of advanced weapons it can use or give to make things much more fluid in an Iran strike, as they have mostly avoided using their advanced weapons in Ukraine. They only use them occasionally, usually just to make a point.

While the war in Ukraine has not gone their way. Again doesn't mean they cannot act when they so choose to still. Russia can and will likly make any strike on Iran much more complicated.
 
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What exactly does it say regarding that? Russia is probably phrasing things so they aren't obligated to get tangled up in something they don't want to be.
Russia and Iran both share interests in countering U.S. and Western influence, and the alliance could provide both nations with a level of security in the event of a confrontation. The treaty is not purely symbolic, it is a shift in power dynamics that will likely have consequences, especially considering how both countries are positioning themselves in the broader geopolitical landscape.

Even if Russia tries to avoid direct military involvement, the partnership provides Iran with access to advanced Russian weaponry, technological support, and perhaps even intelligence sharing, which could significantly complicate any military action against Iran.

So, while there may be no explicit clause that forces Russia to get involved in a direct conflict, the mutual benefits of this partnership especially in the context of a possible U.S.-Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities cannot and should not be dismissed as easily as merely “not wanting to be tangled up.”

The situation is fluid, but the alignment between Russia and Iran is a factor that complicates any military action in the region, and it shouldn't be overlooked as a potential catalyst for broader escalation.
 
So I suppose we now wait for Trump to start either bombing the shit out of Iran or we back off, can't say I feel like we will be doing the latter however lol
 
Are you coming from the assumption that Russia is too bogged down in Ukraine to engage in another confrontation?
More from the position that Russia doesn't really care about Iran. They're just useful to poke the West with.
 
More from the position that Russia doesn't really care about Iran. They're just useful to poke the West with.
My point is that Russia can make attacking Iran a very fluid, dangerous, and complicated situation. Even without intending to directly intervene militarily, things can go sideways quickly, escalating into a broader conflict regardless of everyone's "intentions."

I believe I have more than fairly articulated why this is the case and highlighted the very real potential danger that lies just over the horizon if the U.S. proceeds with an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. In my opinion, Russia is the ultimate wild card in this and cannot be underestimated in any threat analysis.
 
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My point. Russia can make attacking Iran a very fluid/dangerous and complicated situation. Even without intentions to directly militarily intervene things can go side ways fast into a broader conflict. Regardless of everyone's "intentions". Think I have more then did a fair job of articulating why and the very real potential danger that is just over the horizon if US proceeds to attack Iran nuclear facilities. Russia in my opinion is the ultimate wild card here and cannot be underestimated.
To be frank, I feel like you both might be forgetting about a certain chubby man in Korea who would see much benefit in sending munitions and cannon fodder to Iran in the case of war, in exchange for high tech from Russia... The Russians don't care about the Iranians in the sense that they don't care how many die, but they definitely don't want to see regime change in the country. IMO a potential war between Iran and USA might not be supported by the regional allies you would think. It is also in Chinas best interest to see the status quo stay the same in the region. I definitely wouldn't rule out Chinese support for Iran in a prospective invasion of Iran, not directly of course but in whatever way they see fit. However the likelyhood of a full scale conflict between the USA and Iran is still very low.
 
To be frank, I feel like you both might be forgetting about a certain chubby man in Korea who would see much benefit in sending munitions and cannon fodder to Iran in the case of war, in exchange for high tech from Russia... The Russians don't care about the Iranians in the sense that they don't care how many die, but they definitely don't want to see regime change in the country. IMO a potential war between Iran and USA might not be supported by the regional allies you would think. It is also in Chinas best interest to see the status quo stay the same in the region. I definitely wouldn't rule out Chinese support for Iran in a prospective invasion of Iran, not directly of course but in whatever way they see fit. However the likelyhood of a full scale conflict between the USA and Iran is still very low.
You would be right if this were going to be a ground-based or land-based war, much like Ukraine. However, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and the potential for broader escalation would require more advanced weaponry something North Korea neither has nor can provide. Only Russia has the capability and willingness to supply Iran with such modern, advanced weaponry. In fact, it’s likely that Russia has already provided Iran with enough to pose a credible threat to Western forces or will do so if the situation escalates. Russia’s interest in preventing regime change in Iran, combined with its formal alliance with Tehran, makes it far more likely that Moscow would step in to complicate any U.S. or Israeli operation.
 
To be frank, I feel like you both might be forgetting about a certain chubby man in Korea who would see much benefit in sending munitions and cannon fodder to Iran in the case of war, in exchange for high tech from Russia... The Russians don't care about the Iranians in the sense that they don't care how many die, but they definitely don't want to see regime change in the country. IMO a potential war between Iran and USA might not be supported by the regional allies you would think. It is also in Chinas best interest to see the status quo stay the same in the region. I definitely wouldn't rule out Chinese support for Iran in a prospective invasion of Iran, not directly of course but in whatever way they see fit. However the likelyhood of a full scale conflict between the USA and Iran is still very low.
Not saying North Korea can't help in a prolonged ground conflict. But that's not what we are facing. No one wants to invade Iran. So Iran simply needs advanced or modern ballistic missiles in quantity and other modern systems. North Korea has some, but not enough to supply Iran in the manner you speak of. Where as Russia can. Which is why it's been my main focus of a catalyst.
 
To be frank, I feel like you both might be forgetting about a certain chubby man in Korea who would see much benefit in sending munitions and cannon fodder to Iran in the case of war, in exchange for high tech from Russia... The Russians don't care about the Iranians in the sense that they don't care how many die, but they definitely don't want to see regime change in the country. IMO a potential war between Iran and USA might not be supported by the regional allies you would think. It is also in Chinas best interest to see the status quo stay the same in the region. I definitely wouldn't rule out Chinese support for Iran in a prospective invasion of Iran, not directly of course but in whatever way they see fit. However the likelyhood of a full scale conflict between the USA and Iran is still very low.
Also, shipments from North Korea would likely be shipped via boat and would likely be stopped before arriving to Iran. That is if things really went sideways in the M.E.

Where as Russia can deliver via air and I would really like to see (sarcasm) the United States shoot down a Russian aircraft heading to Iran supplying them with weapons. Not gonna happen. So...
 
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