Discussions --Lead Up to Talks & US Military Intervention Against Iran Nuclear Facilities Threatened When Talks Fail

[Peter Griffin]

You would be right if this were going to be a ground-based or land-based war, much like Ukraine. However, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and the potential for broader escalation would require more advanced weaponry something North Korea neither has nor can provide. Only Russia has the capability and willingness to supply Iran with such modern, advanced weaponry. In fact, it’s likely that Russia has already provided Iran with enough to pose a credible threat to Western forces or will do so if the situation escalates. Russia’s interest in preventing regime change in Iran, combined with its formal alliance with Tehran, makes it far more likely that Moscow would step in to complicate any U.S. or Israeli operation.

Not saying North Korea can't help in a prolonged ground conflict. But that's not what we are facing. No one wants to invade Iran. So Iran simply needs advanced or modern ballistic and other modern systems. North Korea has some, but not enough to supply Iran in the manner you speak of.

Well If we end up just bombing Iran with no regime change or ground invasion I just don't see that as a strategic win. It will only ostracize and radicalize the population more so. Can't rely on Air dominance only when you are dealing with a radical revolutionary religious movement that will instill fervour the majority of military age males who are 100% okay with committing terrorist attacks on civilians back here in the states. It would be like asking for another 9/11 to happen. If Trump is serious about Regime change in Iran ( which is honestly necessary for peace in the middle east at this moment) then he needs to be full throttle on this issue. AKA letting the CIA do it's job again when it's needed. There is a sizable amount of people in Iran that have liberal values and If I had to guess they would probably be willing to overthrow the Ayatollah if the time is right. Maybe we could push it towards being the right time if you catch my meaning. TLDR; Only bombing Iran into dust will only make terrorist attacks in the states more likely, at the least amphibious operations would be needed to secure their access to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Also, shipments from North Korea would likely be shipped via boat and would likely be stopped before arriving to Iran. That is if things really went sideways in the M.E.

Where as Russia can deliver via air and I would really like to see (sarcasm) the United States shoot down a Russian aircraft heading to Iran supplying them with weapons. Not gonna happen. So...

Hypothetically speaking in a potential conflict they would transfer military aid from Russia through the Caspian sea, so yeah there is always a chance of that getting targeted. However It would still be the safest route and is well protected by both Russian and Iranian AD. All of this is purely conjecture though, Don't take my word for any of this. I don't even believe myself all the way lol, just offering some potential scenarios haha

 

[NuclearID]

Well If we end up just bombing Iran with no regime change or ground invasio

That's the plan clearly. Definitely not a invasion force parked in the M.E right now. It's a 'move whole mountains' kinda fire power there, i.e bunker busting. Not troops.

The goals also clearly stated by White House & Israel is to stop Iran from having a atomic bomb. Not regime change or invasion. What is parked in the M.E is to counter any retaliation from Iran after striking (only) their nuclear facilities. Then countering any counter attack. No invasion. Not sure why you would even think that?... not trying to be insulting but invading Iran or regime change is pretty much impossible. Plus zero willingness in US public for a ground war anywhere let alone the whole in the wall Iran.

 

[Torch]

To be frank, I feel like you both might be forgetting about a certain chubby man in Korea who would see much benefit in sending munitions and cannon fodder to Iran in the case of war, in exchange for high tech from Russia... The Russians don't care about the Iranians in the sense that they don't care how many die, but they definitely don't want to see regime change in the country. IMO a potential war between Iran and USA might not be supported by the regional allies you would think. It is also in Chinas best interest to see the status quo stay the same in the region. I definitely wouldn't rule out Chinese support for Iran in a prospective invasion of Iran, not directly of course but in whatever way they see fit. However the likelyhood of a full scale conflict between the USA and Iran is still very low.

I believe (just me) that Iran is LONG past any real technological aid that North Korea or South Africa can share. (They can always use advice on miniaturization)

They need guidance systems. It’s #1 on the list with accurate Guidance Systems #2 on the list.
MIRV is the goal. With post mirv (maneuverable reentry vehicles) the holy grail. Russia seems to be in first place right now.

 

[NuclearID]

I believe (just me) that Iran is LONG past any real technological aid that North Korea or South Africa can share. (They can always use advice on miniaturization)

My thoughts exactly.

Not saying North Korea can't help in a prolonged ground conflict. But that's not what we are facing. No one wants to invade Iran. So Iran simply needs advanced or modern ballistic missiles in quantity and other modern systems. North Korea has some, but not enough to supply Iran in the manner you speak of. Where as Russia can. Which is why it's been my main focus of a catalyst.

Great minds think alike?

 

[Torch]

I also believe the tipping point is Tuesday/Wednesday as the US will achieve maximum supportable exported hate (bombers) with the present the permissive infrastructure.

There is enough hate stacked to wipe Irans program and military infrastructure out. Thousands of targets, and we have it covered with a medium percentage of our force. We cans still engage another belligerent including China AND have enough left to delay in a third theatre.

It’s actually a sober display to the world of what the USA can do if needed. I think most people think we are some weak European power as they watched people fall from our planes as we ran away (Thank you Joe). Well they may very well get to watch US take down a nascent nuclear power.

 

[Peter Griffin]

That's the plan clearly. Definitely not a invasion force parked in the M.E right now. It's a 'move whole mountains' kinda fire power there, i.e bunker busting. Not troops.

The goals also clearly stated by White House & Israel is to stop Iran from having a atomic bomb. Not regime change or invasion. What is parked in the M.E is to counter any retaliation from Iran after striking (only) their nuclear facilities. Then countering any counter attack. No invasion. Not sure why you would even think that?... not trying to be insulting but invading Iran or regime change is pretty much impossible. Plus zero willingness in US public for a ground war anywhere let alone the whole in the wall Iran.

I don't think we are going to invade Iran, I said I think that Regime change is the only decision that will bear results that work in favor for the USA. Whether that be through another civil war like they had to usurp the Shah, or through a prolonged conflict with the USA. Sure people are always going to protest war abroad however that didn't stop us from intervening in Vietnam, or withdrawing from Korea. Also zero willingness is not what I would describe the American people right now when it comes to war. 54% are clearly not afraid of conflict, and are edging on the side of actively advocating for military action. Especially on our southern border. If any president were to get away with invading a country with no hits to his domestic polling, it would be Donald Trump. Most of his supporters are extremely loyal to whatever he proposes. Time will tell I suppose

 

[Torch]

I don't think we are going to invade Iran, I said I think that Regime change is the only decision that will bear results that work in favor for the USA.

I agree. We are just going to bomb them, maybe sink their navy. Depends on how we feel.

 

[Torch]

My thoughts exactly.

Great minds think alike?

I missed that! You are very correct!

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

My point is that Russia can make attacking Iran a very fluid, dangerous, and complicated situation. Even without intending to directly intervene militarily, things can go sideways quickly, escalating into a broader conflict regardless of everyone's "intentions."

I am expecting that to happen one day.

There is actually a biblical prophecy that Iran will drag Russia kicking and screaming into a war there.

 

[Spyglass]

Not to mention the terrorist organization he mentioned are war time or revolutionary terrorist. Iran is not at war or fighting a revolution.

Iran openly funds and commits terrorist acts, has known terrorist within its government/military, carriers out or funds violent acts just to kill innocent people and cause terror. Openly calls for genocide. Quite literaly the definition of a terrorist or terrorist organization. Makes total sense for them to have nuclear weapons. (NOT) Jesus christ. Lol

Nothing would stop Iran from giving a large backpack sized nuke to an operative, and planting it in a major European or middle eastern city.

What if they perfect space based re-entry vehicles? No thanks. Better to just end it.

 

[NuclearID]

Nothing would stop Iran from giving a large backpack sized nuke to an operative, and planting it in a major European or middle eastern city.

What if they perfect space based re-entry vehicles? No thanks. Better to just end it.

Even risking indirect Russian intervention is worth it i.e weapon shipments. A true terrorist state with nuclear capabilities is unacceptable, should be for everyone. Just unfortunate the last 4-5 US administration didn't do what was needed in first place.

 

[NuclearID]

Now we have hit end of road. Now or never. Looks like Trump picked now and Trump doesn't have to worry about re-election in regards to starting a war. Unless they change the constitution of course.

 

[NuclearID]

Also ever since Trump made his ultimatum public and clear two days ago he hasn't said a word since about it. Since when is Trump quite?...

 

[NuclearID]

I am expecting that to happen one day.

There is actually a biblical prophecy that Iran will drag Russia kicking and screaming into a war there.

Well we certainly have a biblical amount of firepower in the Middle East right now. Where talking any second in my humble opinion strike operations will commence against Iran nuclear facilities.

Iran seems entirely unwilling to come to the table. Trump has made his ultimatum pretty clear and has left again in my opinion no room to back out.

As I keep saying. It's now or never preventing Iran from getting a working deliverable bomb. Trump has clearly chosen now and Iran is never going to agree to give them up. No off ramps. Just a matter of time now. Whenever we get ALL our ducks in a row for a retaliation attack for hitting their facilities it will be "go" time.

 

[NuclearID]

Thread is about US military intervention against Iran nuclear facilities and US ultimatum to Iran.

Topic of weather Iran is or is not a terrorist state is definitely not in that topic. It has been moved to its own thread here:

Post in thread 'Iran Being a Terrorist State Debate & Weather They Should Have Nuclear Weapons'

Mar 30, 2025

Terrorist or Freedom Fighter, depends which side you're on. Often times both from different perspectives.

• JPod

• 
• 

 

[Torch]

Nothing would stop Iran from giving a large backpack sized nuke to an operative, and planting it in a major European or middle eastern city.

What if they perfect space based re-entry vehicles? No thanks. Better to just end it.

Miniaturization is the issue.
I have seen (public domain) SF back pack nukes for the defense of West Germany. Team of at least three carried the device and equipment. They could be airlifted close to the objective, then hump it in set it up and start the timer. Now at this point the story is a tale of two cities so to say. The Brass say set the TIMER and get out. Probably a hard march or vehicle ride to a helicopter pick.

Tale version two. You set the timer for 36 hours and…

That’s it. Do you really think we’re gonna leave an armed nuke laying around for the enemy to capture?

Who is the same reason Gary Powers bailed out rather than ejected from the U2, which never set off the auto destruct and allow the Russians to capture or recover parts of it.

The reasoning was he firmly believed as did most of the pilots that you pulled the pins and everything went boom. A pilot on the ground is just a liability in the middle of Russia.

 

[Erecon]

Guys remind me of what military agreements Russia and Iran have, I know they have some weapon cooperation, and they have been talking about tighter cooperation but I am not sure they have a military pact like North Korea and Russia. Also Russia has not been so vocal about it, ( since obama ) and not sure they actually want a nuclear armed Iran. About Iran and North Korea, I dont see a communist contry help a muslim contry with troops. Money is money ofc, so tech and weapons might be sold. Also US and Russia talking in Saudi Arabia might be a kind of signal.

 

[Torch]

Seems to be bullshit. Tied to an old NBC news report,

NBC News:
“…in a statement on Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he rejected direct negotiations with the U.S. over its nuclear program, in the country’s first response to a letter sent by Trump to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader.”


>I just saw a headline that said >I ran and rejected the US and >Trump’s final ultimatum. >Looking to confirm added >only because this is >discussion and reports

 

[NuclearID]

Guys remind me of what military agreements Russia and Iran have, I know they have some weapon cooperation, and they have been talking about tighter cooperation but I am not sure they have a military pact like North Korea and Russia. Also Russia has not been so vocal about it, and not sure they actually want a nuclear armed Iran. About Iran and North Korea, I dont see a communist contry help a muslim contry with troops. Money is money ofc, so tech and weapons might be sold. Also US and Russia talking in Saudi Arabia might be a kind of signal.

Already posted in this thread about it. Couple pages back;

Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, ratified in January 2025, includes significant military and defense cooperation elements, which went under the radar for many at the time.

Quick brush up; Key Military Aspects of the Treaty:

1. Mutual Defense Clause (Unofficial but Implied):
While not explicitly called a mutual defense pact, the agreement outlines "enhanced military coordination and joint security initiatives" aimed at addressing external threats. Given the geopolitical context and both nations' adversarial stance toward Western powers, this is widely interpreted as a quasi-mutual defense understanding.

2. Joint Military Exercises & Training:
The treaty formalizes joint military drills, maritime operations, and war games between Russian and Iranian forces. This extends beyond previous naval cooperation in the Caspian Sea to include "joint strategic defense exercises" near the Persian Gulf and other sensitive regions.

3. Technology Transfer & Arms Sales:
Russia has agreed to supply Iran with advanced missile defense systems, fighter jets, and cyber warfare capabilities. This includes:

S-400 air defense systems (beyond the S-300s already delivered).

Su-35 fighter jets, with deliveries expected to begin in mid-2025.

Upgrades to Iran’s drone and missile programs, particularly concerning ballistic missile technology.

4. Intelligence Sharing & Cybersecurity Cooperation:
The agreement mandates closer cooperation between Iranian and Russian intelligence agencies, particularly for "countering Western cyber threats and electronic warfare." Russia is reportedly providing advanced cyber capabilities to Iran, enhancing its offensive and defensive cyber operations.


5. Logistical Support & Military Presence:
Russia is now permitted "limited military basing rights" in Iran, particularly for maritime operations and air support in the region. This includes docking rights in Iranian ports for Russian warships and limited airfield access.

6. Drone Production & Supply Chain Collaboration:
Russia and Iran have agreed to establish joint drone manufacturing facilities in Iran, ensuring a consistent supply of attack drones like the Shahed series, which Russia has used extensively in Ukraine.

This treaty essentially ties Iran and Russia into a formal military partnership one that now complicates any U.S. or Israeli action against Iranian nuclear sites.

THIS IS SOMTHING a lot of people have over looked. Russian military 'entanglement' with Iran now formaly ratified between the two nations.

It's what me and the director have been mulling over.