Trump Trade War U.S.-China agree to cut tariffs - Dow futures rocket higher by 1,100 points

[intel-bank]

Funny everything I read the bond market is what does the reacting to the fed rates.

The Fed's Rate Cut: A Balancing Act for Bond Investors?

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has triggered a surprising shift in the bond market, presenting challenges and opportunities for investors.

www.marketbeat.com

Well it isn't, bond rates are what the government pays to borrow money, they typically are linked to the fed funds rate but they don't have to be, investors can demand more money. Usually they only demand around the fed funds rate. Because after all, if a bank is buying more assets, and they choose bonds, the return on those bonds should be pretty equal to the cost of borrowing from the government. But it doesn't have to be.

News items alone do not start recessions, persistent real world events and economic factors start recessions.
News items can start panic selling which soon turns into embarrassing investing choices

This is true, world events and economic factors absolutely do effect the economy. The thing is, usually they effect the economy because of how people react to the news of them. The economy can move past these issues over time if it doesn't crash. That panic selling crashes the economy. The news caused panic selling. Without the panic selling most economies recover.

The depression started because when the panic started there was nothing there to support the panic. That was not a news item alone it was an actual reality of a significantly over inflated market ( real world be vs short term panic)

Yes, it literally started because in investors panicked. It had nothing to do with prices. It had nothing to do with wages. It happened because people decided the economy actually sucked one day.

 

[intel-bank]

And also, speaking of over inflated economy, this economy has been inflated into madness since the great recession. Most assets are owned by people that make more money a month than most people make in a year.

 

[Publius]

You always are assuming when I criticize Trump that means I love Democrats and love their policies and the economy was just fantastic and everyone was partying daily with all their spare money. They weren't.

No I just think you’re incorrect. That I cited data that proved democratic policies negative or flatly effected the economy seems to be something provoked something in you not me.

Regarding the clip of mine you quoted you ignore that my statement was a statement of an individual perspective, of personal financial acumen. Not a political or party insinuation.

My argument is that Trump is trying to make our economy a more primitive one by alienating US globally, when the cost of our goods are because of how reliable of a trade partner we are. Because my whole life, products have been dirt cheap. Food pretty dirt cheap but it got more expensive. It’s housing and car prices, and student loan debt, it isn't that I couldn't go work at some factory in some random places. Its that a factory wouldn't pay me enough to own the damn transportation required to get there, and my body would be ruined, but I couldn't retire because I don't have a paid off house.

Cars won't be cheaper if manufactured here, wages for making those cars wouldn't get higher because if they did, the cars would get more expensive. Houses won't get cheaper because every time they do landlords buy them up and raise rent. So how is taxing my shirt going to make me rich?

These are not trade issues these are fundamental economic and regulatory issues in the states. On top of that you speak of the dangers of correcting trade imbalances. Yet have offered no solution other than just investor friendly trade policies.
Other than some imaginary world where everyone can find jobs doing who knows what and earn a living wage and have affordable health.
With nothing changing except we make the rich and businesses pay more taxes, which in turn cause them to have lower profits and lower $ to invest in businesses, which in turn affect the stock market negatively, which in turn make the economy uneasy, which in turn makes, individuals less willing to buy a new pair of shoes, which effects investing and business growth, which affects the stock market……..

Shall I go on?

This is about one thing, equalizing trade amongst nations so there is an actual free market and nations can stand on their own creative, industrial and creative capabilities.
It’s not complicated, governments can only do so much to make the world a better place.
The rest is up to the individuals to do the rest. They will either rise to the challenge or they won’t

 

[intel-bank]

These are not trade issues these are fundamental economic and regulatory issues in the states. On top of that you speak of the dangers of correcting trade imbalances.

I do speak of those dangers, because they ignore that a country may not be able to afford importing goods, they ignore that some regions are better for producing certain things than other regions. Bananas don't grow well in the US.

Yet have offered no solution other than just investor friendly trade policies.

Because trade imbalances make us rich, there is no reason to fix that. Those countries aren't bleeding us for money. We are refusing to pay them more for their goods. We are the ones who benefit from a country not buying many goods from us.

Other than some imaginary world where everyone can find jobs doing who knows what and earn a living wage and have affordable health.

And factory jobs are the solution to that? Just bring jobs that pay less in, instead of educating the population and government investment in fields that use that education, which is far more economically valuable than goods production? Service jobs are lucrative. We need more of them. Not less.

With nothing changing except we make the rich and businesses pay more taxes, which in turn cause them to have lower profits and lower $ to invest in businesses,

The good thing about taxes is you can do fun things with them! Not even necessarily send them out to people. You can tell businesses, for every $10/hr extra you pay your workers, you get to enjoy a 10% reduction in tax rates. Employee owned stocks not taxed if that person doesn't have over a million in assets. Your employees then can invest money themselves into your company, then you don't even lose much on wages. You can encourage people to invest or spend by saying, look, if your company is making over x per year you get a higher tax rate. If you spend that money as a corporation, then you don't have to pay that higher tax rate. You can spend that money by creating a research and development team(more service jobs). You can spend that money by investing in a housing company to make a bunch of cheap houses so that people have cheap houses so they can buy your products.

Taxes on rich people encourage spending, trickle down economics are a myth. Because when they spend money, they don't make a profit for tax purposes. That is how taxation causes the trickle down behavior that is hoped for with tax cuts. It encourages spending money as a business which makes that money not a profit, therefore not taxed. Spent money isn't taxed as a business in America, it's classified as an expense. If the rich want to be super rich and have all sorts of fun goodies, they can spend their money on developing the economy, reducing prices (saving them money), and producing luxury goods.

This is about one thing, equalizing trade amongst nations so there is an actual free market and nations can stand on their own creative, industrial and creative capabilities.
It’s not complicated, governments can only do so much to make the world a better place.
The rest is up to the individuals to do the rest. They will either rise to the challenge or they won’t

Equalizing trade doesn't cause a free market, it destroys it. A free market will have trade imbalances. As I said, trade imbalances widely make our goods cheaper and our wages higher (because we have high paying service jobs once we decide to stop working in factories)

 

[Publius]

I do speak of those dangers, because they ignore that a country may not be able to afford importing goods, they ignore that some regions are better for producing certain things than other regions. Bananas don't grow well in the US.


Because trade imbalances make us rich, there is no reason to fix that. Those countries aren't bleeding us for money. We are refusing to pay them more for their goods. We are the ones who benefit from a country not buying many goods from us.


And factory jobs are the solution to that? Just bring jobs that pay less in, instead of educating the population and government investment in fields that use that education, which is far more economically valuable than goods production? Service jobs are lucrative. We need more of them. Not less.


The good thing about taxes is you can do fun things with them! Not even necessarily send them out to people. You can tell businesses, for every $10/hr extra you pay your workers, you get to enjoy a 10% reduction in tax rates. Employee owned stocks not taxed if that person doesn't have over a million in assets. Your employees then can invest money themselves into your company, then you don't even lose much on wages. You can encourage people to invest or spend by saying, look, if your company is making over x per year you get a higher tax rate. If you spend that money as a corporation, then you don't have to pay that higher tax rate. You can spend that money by creating a research and development team(more service jobs). You can spend that money by investing in a housing company to make a bunch of cheap houses so that people have cheap houses so they can buy your products.

Taxes on rich people encourage spending, trickle down economics are a myth. Because when they spend money, they don't make a profit for tax purposes. That is how taxation causes the trickle down behavior that is hoped for with tax cuts. It encourages spending money as a business which makes that money not a profit, therefore not taxed. Spent money isn't taxed as a business in America, it's classified as an expense. If the rich want to be super rich and have all sorts of fun goodies, they can spend their money on developing the economy, reducing prices (saving them money), and producing luxury goods.


Equalizing trade doesn't cause a free market, it destroys it. A free market will have trade imbalances. As I said, trade imbalances widely make our goods cheaper and our wages higher (because we have high paying service jobs once we decide to stop working in factories)

Amazing simply amazing

 

[Irag8er]

CNN admits inflation is at its lowest point since 2021.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1922396809684467776

 

[intel-bank]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1922396809684467776

You can expect it to get lower, as well. Perhaps even turn negative.

The question is, is he making housing more affordable as a percentage of wage? Is he making cars more affordable as a percentage of wage? Is he making essential goods cheaper as a percentage of wage?

If those things come to fruition, I will eat my words. But I don't trust deflation. It comes with recessions usually. A healthy economy will adjust by wage increases to prior inflation (inflation has been falling for a while now, hell I stopped noticing inflation outside eggs a solid year+ ago. Nothing like at its peak) yet wages haven't risen, and goods haven't actually got cheaper, just stopped getting more expensive as fast. When he can fix that problem, when he makes it so I can afford rent and transportation, then I will be throwing the confetti.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

The question is, is he making housing more affordable as a percentage of wage? Is he making cars more affordable as a percentage of wage? Is he making essential goods cheaper as a percentage of wage?

According to Trending Economics, wages have been raising from $30.08/hour in January to $31.06 in April. This is not just a Trump thing, however. Except for a short decline in May/June 2020, wages have been steadily going up

 

[intel-bank]

According to Trending Economics, wages have been raising from $30.08/hour in January to $31.06 in April. This is not just a Trump thing, however. Except for a short decline in May/June 2020, wages have been steadily going up

They have been, which has been great for people who own their house and own their car, the problem so far has been that housing and vehicle prices continue to be oppressive, and thats not including student loans. Nobody would feel like the economy was bad if it weren't for rents being well over $1k/m even in the small towns, and a new used car being over $500/m before the fact you need comprehensive insurance on it. Cheaper cars simply aren't reliable enough when if your car breaks down you can lose your job. If you make under that $30/hr like half of people, there is still a major squeeze. Rent is only $1k/m for a studio apartment in a low cost of living area (which tend to have fewer jobs), if you work in a city or have a kid, you can be looking at $2k++

Between housing, car loans, and student loans, even $30/hr starts to feel tight. And 30/hr includes people who bought a house before mortgages became so insanely expensive.

I certainly am glad older people are more widely financially secure than they were at the peak of the pandemic economic crisis, but young people just starting to try to work like me? I can't afford to live somewhere where jobs would pay me $30/hr, and I can't get a job before I have an address and somewhere to stay in such areas.

I like to think the government could fix it with the right policies, but I have little hope tarrifs will do the job and instead the whole idea of bringing back factory jobs rubs me wrong. Those aren't good jobs. I've worked goods jobs. They aren't good jobs, and they don't create financial security, and they are prone to lay offs when the economy declines, and factory owners can't afford to eat the $30/hr+ when some dude in a developing country will happily work for $5/hr and I can't blame him, that money is a lot to them, that wage is lifting them from the worst poverty.

Its all very frustrating to me when I just want to be able to use the skills I have to make money but there is a severe lack in service jobs despite us being a service based economy, with a service educated public that mostly couldn't read a tape measure but can develope tech to cure cancer.

 

[Publius]

They have been, which has been great for people who own their house and own their car, the problem so far has been that housing and vehicle prices continue to be oppressive, and thats not including student loans. Nobody would feel like the economy was bad if it weren't for rents being well over $1k/m even in the small towns, and a new used car being over $500/m before the fact you need comprehensive insurance on it. Cheaper cars simply aren't reliable enough when if your car breaks down you can lose your job. If you make under that $30/hr like half of people, there is still a major squeeze. Rent is only $1k/m for a studio apartment in a low cost of living area (which tend to have fewer jobs), if you work in a city or have a kid, you can be looking at $2k++

Between housing, car loans, and student loans, even $30/hr starts to feel tight. And 30/hr includes people who bought a house before mortgages became so insanely expensive.

I certainly am glad older people are more widely financially secure than they were at the peak of the pandemic economic crisis, but young people just starting to try to work like me? I can't afford to live somewhere where jobs would pay me $30/hr, and I can't get a job before I have an address and somewhere to stay in such areas.

I like to think the government could fix it with the right policies, but I have little hope tarrifs will do the job and instead the whole idea of bringing back factory jobs rubs me wrong. Those aren't good jobs. I've worked goods jobs. They aren't good jobs, and they don't create financial security, and they are prone to lay offs when the economy declines, and factory owners can't afford to eat the $30/hr+ when some dude in a developing country will happily work for $5/hr and I can't blame him, that money is a lot to them, that wage is lifting them from the worst poverty.

Its all very frustrating to me when I just want to be able to use the skills I have to make money but there is a severe lack in service jobs despite us being a service based economy, with a service educated public that mostly couldn't read a tape measure but can develope tech to cure cancer.

Service jobs are not those that included curing cancer. Hospitality retail nursing.
You’re not even using the same words with the same definitions. This is what your arguments and claims go no where with me.
You curse college education and laud self education one minute. Then bemoan we don’t have enough researchers curing cancer.
Criticizing the NECESSITY of Plumbers and people who can build homes and roads and run power lines and make sure the sewage is properly treated. As nothing jobs.
Is seriously leads me to believe there is no inkling contained in your argument of what it takes to keep a modern society afloat and operating smoothly.

Very Chomskiesk I would say. No idea what it takes to keep clean water on tap or shit out of the basement

 

[intel-bank]

Service jobs are not those that included curing cancer. Hospitality retail nursing.

Service jobs absolutely include things like office work. Service jobs are jobs where you provide a service and not a good.

You’re not even using the same words with the same definitions. This is what your arguments and claims go no where with me.

You curse college education and laud self education one minute.

I have no problem with college education and think people should have more of it, and I think it should be affordable enough that people can take a chance at a degree despite the oversaturation of degrees.

Then bemoan we don’t have enough researchers curing cancer.
Criticizing the NECESSITY of Plumbers and people who can build homes and roads and run power lines and make sure the sewage is properly treated. As nothing jobs.

I am not criticizing those jobs. They are service jobs. You seem to not even understand what I mean by service jobs. Service jobs are jobs where you are not producing a good, you are providing a service.

Is seriously leads me to believe there is no inkling contained in your argument of what it takes to keep a modern society afloat and operating smoothly.

Very Chomskiesk I would say. No idea what it takes to keep clean water on tap or shit out of the basement

Again, those jobs are service jobs. They are not creating a good. Manufacturing jobs do. Plumbing and sewage control is not a manufacturing job, it is a service job.

 

[Publius]

Service jobs absolutely include things like office work. Service jobs are jobs where you provide a service and not a good.



I have no problem with college education and think people should have more of it, and I think it should be affordable enough that people can take a chance at a degree despite the oversaturation of degrees.

I am not criticizing those jobs. They are service jobs. You seem to not even understand what I mean by service jobs. Service jobs are jobs where you are not producing a good, you are providing a service.

Again, those jobs are service jobs. They are not creating a good. Manufacturing jobs do. Plumbing and sewage control is not a manufacturing job, it is a service job.

Curing cancer is not service job no we are not speaking the same language.

BTW a plumber or contractor is producing something. They are taking components the were manufacture and making something with them. Lo a final finished good product or goods.
Like I said not even the same language and I suspect at this point it is that way for a reason.

 

[intel-bank]

My generation is widely educated in trades or college degrees which perform services and do not produce goods. A plumber does not produce a good. A construction worker may create a good, but they are mostly providing services. Your houses plumbing is created in some foreign country by manufacturers, the plumber mostly ensures that construction workers have installed pipes properly, or they come to maintain the pipes already in your house.

If you do not pay your plumber, you get charged with theft of services.

Most Americans do not want the low wages and insecurity around a worker who assembles their car batteries. So we have people in countries that are currently industrializing do such work which helps lift them out of poverty and make us richer and allows us to instead service that equipment.

 

[intel-bank]

Curing cancer is not service job no we are not speaking the same language.

BTW a plumber or contractor is producing something. They are taking components the were manufacture and making something with them. Lo a final finished good product or goods.
Like I said not even the same language and I suspect at this point it is that way for a reason.

You should look up what a service economy is. It is a contrast to a manufacturing economy.

 

[intel-bank]

.

Curing cancer is not service job no we are not speaking the same language.

Curing cancer IS a service job. The person developing and writing articles on various studies regarding curing cancer is providing a service.

Like I said not even the same language and I suspect at this point it is that way for a reason.

We run into this a lot in the modern world. A blue collar worker hears "service job" and thinks "customer service", a white collar worker thinks "service job" and thinks themselves, because they are not producing a good

Perhaps it's easier to explain it as "unskilled" vs "skilled" labor. Most skilled labor is in the rhelm of services.