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UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

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Or when Trumps decides to cut ties with Ukraine, Zelenskyy throws Trump under the bus to try and make Trump complicit in drone attacks. Just conspiracy, not even a consideration
 
Torch said:
I cannot help but think that’s not good (as opposed to the passage
time allowing them to cool off)
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I don’t think they really know what to do in this situation as I don’t think it was even on their mind that it was possible. They’re either going to launch another big drone strike and call that their response or have to come up with a new way to escalate which they only have a couple options without expanding the conflict which it does not seem they are inclined to do right now. That’s why I suggest they could make good on targeting decision centers in Kyiv or another other option could be annexing kharkiv, which doesn’t seem strategically sound as they haven’t managed to control the other oblasts they annexed. Targeting decision centers is incredibly risky though as it opens the debate whether Ukraine could do the same.
 
Torch said:
How do you know we didn’t know?
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There’s more to this. It’s possible the U.S. denied involvement because this was a message from Trump to Putin through Ukraine as a proxy. Trump didn’t just talk minerals with Zelensky.

A direct attack on Russias strategic forces by the US would constitute the mistake Riff was talking about. But, an attack through Ukraine the proxy…. Different situation.

Trump said “I don’t know what’s happened to Putin, he’s gone crazy.”

Maybe this is to tell Putin to back down. The fact the Ukrainians were able to hide those drone deployment platforms deep in Russia says that there’s far more Russia has to lose here. Russia has some major leaks and chances are there’s MORE cockroaches in the system.

He can either do an about face and back down, or he can double down. My money is on double down.
 
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DEFCON1.0 said:
I think if there were ever a time for a status change, it would be now.

Things feeling a little different with this attack.. I think that final red line may have just been finally crossed.
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Ukraine held territory in Russia for around a year and Russia didn’t use nuclear weapons, Ukraine bombed strategic nuclear weapons infrastructure inside Russia and Russia didn’t use nuclear weapons, Ukraine launched drones on the Kremlin and Russia didn’t use nuclear weapons, I could go on but Ukraine has crossed some serious red lines and Russia has done nothing. Yeah I guarantee there’s a red line some place is at stake and at the end of the day this attack was incredibly embarrassing but this isn’t going to threaten Putin’s regime and the kremlin will spin it, claim few or no aircraft were destroyed, threaten nukes do nothing, and move on to the next propaganda story.
 
DEFCON1.0 said:
I think if there were ever a time for a status change, it would be now.

Things feeling a little different with this attack.. I think that final red line may have just been finally crossed.
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Nope not there yet. Western thought process is obviously very different to Russian-Putin.
No need for panic as Putin obviously isn't deterred by the west in the slightest. He has demonstrated this over and over , especially during so-called peace discussions. He is confident and committed for the deal he expects. Anything less he is determined to fight on to the end if necessary. Meaning he gets what he feels is necessary or worst case scenario Ukraine-west goes to far with destruction in Russia and he gives final ultimatum. Demise of Russia = full launch. Far from that at this stage no matter how anyone in the west thinks otherwise .
 
You also need to account for : Putins legacy - how he wants to be remmembered, if he pushes the "fictional bottom" who would remmember him? Also the resent leak about Russias nuclear capabilities, also hints that people are watching what is going on, and I guess US would first strike - if they see all Russias Nuclear forces go into prepare mode and had intel of an immidiate attack.

( and perhaps the leak was a precurser for the attack, to hint that they had the power to strip Russias Nuclear capabilities if they wanted - What would Russia be without all its nukes? )
 
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Yingyang said:
Nope not there yet. Western thought process is obviously very different to Russian-Putin.
No need for panic as Putin obviously isn't deterred by the west in the slightest. He has demonstrated this over and over , especially during so-called peace discussions. He is confident and committed for the deal he expects. Anything less he is determined to fight on to the end if necessary. Meaning he gets what he feels is necessary or worst case scenario Ukraine-west goes to far with destruction in Russia and he gives final ultimatum. Demise of Russia = full launch. Far from that at this stage no matter how anyone in the west thinks otherwise .
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Well of course he has a completely different perception than the west. If he didn’t we wouldn’t be here.
That in and of itself does not mean he is correct or has the military and industrial capacity to prevail short or a “full launch”.
Just as it is unknown if the west has the stomach to prevail.
That’s not placing any value weights on either side.

Most here generally agree that Putin should withdraw from the field or at the very least negotiate a viable settlement.
That is a perception, one with which I agree with. I suspect you might not and at this time it’s of no use to debate whose world perception is more valid.
I’ve said this before. It’s a fight everyone picks a side. Whether that’s a fight for your neighborhood your home, your nation, or your world view.
Even choosing not to choose is a choice.

What can safely be said I think is that neither side is going to tolerate a lopsided loss for themselves. The fights on, its too late to argue over root causes.

The nuclear launch controls is clearly defined as each leader has the primary authority to launch. And even though that is technically not arguable. There are always the nuances of command and control within this chain of command.
We saw in 2020 Miley try and ingratiate himself in this authority chain. That was legal fiction. He could advise and that’s it. Yet he tried to play the part of a stopgap between hostiles between the US and China. Personally I think he violated parts of the uniform code for military officers.
The same thing is true in Russia, maybe more so. If the military leadership in Russia even just a small influential cadre decides Putin is on the verge of spoiling their gig. Then expect a completely believable heart attack for their overtaxed leader.

Is Putin wrong yeah I think he is. You know what makes zero difference.
We’re gonna do what we’re gonna do, and so is Russia.

I give it a 20% chance of a coup in Russia, those Russian AF generals are probably getting tired of loosing planes they will probably never see replaced. The admirals are probably already bent because of losses. And the army is probably just sick of being blamed for everything.
There is a 10% chance they escalate to deescalate what ever that means.
And lastly a 70% chance the war just grinds on for a few more months waiting for the next big move by one side or the other.
 
RiffRaff said:
Nope. Putin has sole launch authority over Russia's nuclear arsenal, just like the US President does. No two-man rule, no staff decisions, do not pass Go, do not collect $200. Now, that being said, is it possible men in the silos might not turn their keys? Is it possible the sub commanders will refuse the launch orders? Is it possible the bomber crews might change their minds just before they release their weapons? Yes, to all of that. These are issues that the US has as well.

But the launch order comes from Putin and nobody else.
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You misunderstand me. I know Putin has launch authority (although you are mistaken in claiming it's "sole" - Russian nukes can also be launched by the Minister or Defense or Chief of the General Staff in a second strike scenario, which is the picture you appear to be painting - but that's beside the point). What I'm trying to get across is that when talking about a first strike option it's not a simple matter of Putin picking up the red phone and blurting "let's nuke them!". I don't believe Russia has a SIOP-like plan for tactical nuclear strikes in Ukraine, complete with assets already prestaged and on standby. In some sense, launching such a strike is a military operation like any other - it involves planning, risk assessment and logistics - not to mention a clear objective ("What are we going to nuke? How, when and using what assets? How does this help us militarily? What precautions should be taken?") Putin doesn't make those decisions himself, and in this sense there are a great many people involved in pusing the proverbial "button".
 
Socom7 said:
You misunderstand me. I know Putin has launch authority (although you are mistaken in claiming it's "sole" - Russian nukes can also be launched by the Minister or Defense or Chief of the General Staff in a second strike scenario, which is the picture you appear to be painting - but that's beside the point). What I'm trying to get across is that when talking about a first strike option it's not a simple matter of Putin picking up the red phone and blurting "let's nuke them!". I don't believe Russia has a SIOP-like plan for tactical nuclear strikes in Ukraine, complete with assets already prestaged and on standby. In some sense, launching such a strike is a military operation like any other - it involves planning, risk assessment and logistics - not to mention a clear objective ("What are we going to nuke? How, when and using what assets? How does this help us militarily? What precautions should be taken?") Putin doesn't make those decisions himself, and in this sense there are a great many people involved in pusing the proverbial "button".
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All of that planning and wargaming your referring to has been done 1000x over by 1000 different super computers way before Putin picks up the phone to order a strike.

So it really doesn’t matter. Putin can absolutely pick up the phone, and say “Nuke DC NOW!” And thy will be done.
 
Spyglass said:
So it really doesn’t matter. Putin can absolutely pick up the phone, and say “Nuke DC NOW!” And thy will be done.
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We're talking about tacnukes in Ukraine, not stratnukes in DC. That's a whole different kind of nuclear war, and yes, it's one Russia is prepared for in the manner you describe.
 
7gtz said:
The text of the Russian memorandum on the Ukrainian settlement has been published. The main points from the document:
1) The first option for a ceasefire for Kyiv is the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions
2) The complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territory of the Russian Federation, including Donbass and Novorossiya, must be carried out within 30 days of the ceasefire
3) International recognition of Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya as part of Russia;
4) Neutrality of Ukraine;
5) The Russian Federation's proposals for resolving the Ukrainian crisis involve holding elections in Ukraine and then signing a peace treaty. Kyiv must announce the date of presidential and parliamentary elections, which must take place no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law;
6) The ceasefire implies a ban on the redeployment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the exception of movements to withdraw troops to an agreed distance
7) Ban on the receipt and deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine
8) To cease fire, the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine is excluded, including the provision of intelligence;The peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine must be approved by a legally binding resolution of the UN Security Council;
9) In order to cease fire, Ukraine needs to amnesty "political prisoners" and release detained military personnel and civilians;
10) For a final settlement in Ukraine it is necessary to ensure the full rights, freedoms and interests of Russian speakers;
11) Waiver of mutual claims with Ukraine in connection with damage from military operations.
The provisions of the document were published by TASS
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Knowing Trump these are perfectly acceptable terms and 'Ukraine should accept them immediately'. "insert soundbite of 47 saying there are people dying, innocent people, it really is a bad business you know, this war stuff. Zelensky should really step down and hold elections and allow Russia to take territory that they don't even control." (And before mods remove this for political talk, I can clip and source the moments that he has said pretty much the exact same thing.)
 
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