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Might I remind you, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that intruded for 20 seconds, we didn't see WW3, and Turkish airspace has not been violated by Russia ever since.
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UA-RU-NATO | Discussions | Sep. 13th/25th 2025
- Thread starter Sentry
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Turkey says Russia violated its airspace near Syria border
Turkey's foreign ministry says it has summoned the Russian ambassador after a Russian plane violated its airspace near the Syrian border.
www.bbc.com
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Russian Air Force Hits Turkish-Operated Black Sea Grain Bulker With Anti-Ship Missile
The missile’s targeting system may have confused an unarmed St. Kitts and Nevis-registered cargo vessel with a Ukrainian naval outpost. Zelensky said the Kremlin strike was intentional.
www.kyivpost.com
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Russia is just provoking NATO to deter them from further helping Ukraine, responding to sanctions and to influence/scare the public.
And the latter actually works as there's growing sentiment against the prosecution of the support to Ukraine and the risks it comes with.
Russia doesn't need to poke into Estonian airspace in order to measure the time needed to respond, this info is already well known to them.
As they already know that invoking article 4, will just lead to words of condemnation (which are already coming in) and increased surveillance from NATO over Estonia by the extension of Eastern Sentinel mission.
Which is something unwanted at least, if you're planning to do a war against NATO soon by invading the Baltics.
And the latter actually works as there's growing sentiment against the prosecution of the support to Ukraine and the risks it comes with.
Russia doesn't need to poke into Estonian airspace in order to measure the time needed to respond, this info is already well known to them.
As they already know that invoking article 4, will just lead to words of condemnation (which are already coming in) and increased surveillance from NATO over Estonia by the extension of Eastern Sentinel mission.
Which is something unwanted at least, if you're planning to do a war against NATO soon by invading the Baltics.
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I hope there is no miscalculation, or any nervous finger.
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Point taken - I concede. Regardless it still shows us that NATO can always decide to shoot down a Russian jet to make a point, it has been done before and will likely not lead to further escalation.Three months after they shot the one down.Turkey says Russia violated its airspace near Syria border
Turkey's foreign ministry says it has summoned the Russian ambassador after a Russian plane violated its airspace near the Syrian border.
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The downing in Turkey, happened in a completely different scenario.
Wake me when commercial satellites flag hard indicators like abnormal rail traffic to GUMO-(Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defence) depots, dispersal of nuclear capable TELs, transloading at railheads, perimeter/security surges, or unusual activity at SSBN-(Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Submarine) piers and long range bomber bases. That’s the difference between chatter and a crisis and in 2025 it’s visible to anyone with a browser its not a crisis. Not even close yet. Are we moving in that direction? Eh... not really. At least not yet.
So... Call me when commercial sat imagery shows anything real like unusual movement at Russian nuclear storage sites or other strategic footprints that scream pre crisis.
You can’t hide that anymore. Not from militaries and not from the public.
So... Call me when commercial sat imagery shows anything real like unusual movement at Russian nuclear storage sites or other strategic footprints that scream pre crisis.
You can’t hide that anymore. Not from militaries and not from the public.
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Rutte already commented, they will just expand and increase Eastern Guardian mission, that's it.
The incident is much less disturbing than the Polish one.
Still to be seen how will Trump respond.
On Poland he said it could have been a mistake...now what?
Pilots got lost for 12 minutes circling a small Estonian island?
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Exactly...it's not the 19th century.
The time when Russia will prepare to wage war against NATO, we will see real evidence, as this would take serious preparation.
It's not like invading Ukraine.
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I count three potential provocations for one day.
1. IL-20M over the Baltic Sea with transponder off near NATO airspace.
2. Fighter jets over Estonia
3. Russian fighter jets violated the safety zone of the Petrobaltic drilling platform in the Baltic sea, triggering a response from the Polish Armed Forces.
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You aren't getting my point. Nobody is saying Russia wants war - what NATO should do is respond accordingly to repeated and deliberate Russian provocations. Russia does not want war as you said, will respond in a toned-down manner and it'll be the end of it.
Yea right. When hell freezes over. Or maybe when pigs fly?
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If you shoot down a fighter killing its pilot at the current time, that will possibly be the real beginning of WW3.
The planes leave once intercepted, without engaging in combat with NATO's forces...this is what both NATO and Russia expect.
(not saying that it's necessarily correct)
Nothing like the "special operation" in Ukraine.
The Baltic's platform and the IL-20M are exaggerations...these kind of events occurred countless times in the past, but get to the news due to the recent incident in Poland (and Estonia today).
The planes leave once intercepted, without engaging in combat with NATO's forces...this is what both NATO and Russia expect.
(not saying that it's necessarily correct)
Nothing like the "special operation" in Ukraine.
The Baltic's platform and the IL-20M are exaggerations...these kind of events occurred countless times in the past, but get to the news due to the recent incident in Poland (and Estonia today).
I have been increasingly convinced NATO is dead. No one wants to admit it.
To much doubt has been put into NATO already. Europe while moving in the right direction is certainly not doing enough in almost all aspects regarding their military infrastructure, capacity, and capabilities.
imo NATO is lucky Russia is weakened at the moment. But they won't stay down forever. Watch out.
Because when Russia does gather itself again. What is stopping Russia from starting a "small" provocation by taking a small border town in Lithuania or Estonia? Is NATO going to start a war over a small village of a couple hundred people? See where I am going? Yea...
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NATO IMHO, has to immediately start mass producing weapons, and UK and France, should change their nuclear policies.
No first use, but if you invade me (or start a war with me, if wanting to expand protection to other countries as Macron suggested), I will use them.
No first use, but if you invade me (or start a war with me, if wanting to expand protection to other countries as Macron suggested), I will use them.
imo NATO is lucky Russia is weakened at the moment. But they won't stay down forever. Watch out.
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I think people don’t understand how bad this was even though it was “just” 12 minutes. That is consequential. If the MIGs were packing Kinzhal missiles, they would’ve been able to strike say Ramstein Air Base or Berlin in under 8 minutes.
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I mean the whole EU has huge if not endless financing capabilities to finance huge investments on weapons.
The main issue is that until the EU does not abandon their budgetary rules (due to the resistance of Austria, Germany and Netherlands) this will never happen.
The main issue is that until the EU does not abandon their budgetary rules (due to the resistance of Austria, Germany and Netherlands) this will never happen.
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