United States Civil War 2 - Possible?

[NuclearID]

By the way, I'm going to echo Torch here in thanking everyone for keeping the discussion civil. There have been a few borderline comments, but I'm much more likely to let them slide as long as things don't escalate. I appreciate the effort everyone is putting into this. Thank you.

I won't be cynical again. However, a comment of myn above does hold merit and isn't cynical. This isn't new to America. We have faced much worse. We have had riots burn down literally entire cites. So. I still hold my belief no civil war. If past events didn't start one, I don't think this current spell will. Unrest? Absolutely. Violent unrest, probably. National localized violent unrest, less likely but definitely probable down the line.

Hoping like in the past it will follow the same formula, i.e, come to a ugly head, then we can move on, pick up the pieces, and rebuild physically and mentally as a nation.

I'm betting history repeats itself here is all.

 

[Irag8er]

We can all thank God that this isn't the middle of summer.

 

[Cilvilt_beredskap]

It seems like the potential flashpoint has died down with especially the administration realising that the conduct around the events might not have been favourable for them. Still, apart from the obvious difference in politician opinions between a Democratic state and a republican federal government, the trust between them has likely been eroded, that might even stay even if the political allegiances switch entirely in the future.

 

[Spyglass]

I understand their nervousness; it's possible that the current US administration is monitoring this site. This administration doesn't really like criticism, especially if a moderator is an American citizen.

U.S. GOV / Pentagon absolutely 110% monitors this site, and knows who everyone is. Only way to hide your identity on here is a very VERY good VPN, logged in from an anonymous email, anonymous IP registered to a random business, burner computer with a fresh Mac Address purchased with cash while face is masked, face masked while using a random IP not at your home address, never provide payment information, burner account, and most importantly, never ever talk about fight club.

Without those steps, any breadcrumb you leave in your digital footprint will lead them right to you.

Adversaries monitor it too, by the way. Our geopolitical and military analysis here is VERY valuable, because it’s free, and most of the time spot on. This is why OPSEC is so important.

 

[Onoya]

U.S. GOV / Pentagon absolutely 110% monitors this site, and knows who everyone is. Only way to hide your identity on here is a very VERY good VPN, logged in from an anonymous email, anonymous IP registered to a random business, burner computer with a fresh Mac Address purchased with cash while face is masked, face masked while using a random IP not at your home address, never provide payment information, burner account, and most importantly, never ever talk about fight club.

Without those steps, any breadcrumb you leave in your digital footprint will lead them right to you.

Adversaries monitor it too, by the way. Our geopolitical and military analysis here is VERY valuable, because it’s free, and most of the time spot on. This is why OPSEC is so important.

Here is my message to the US GOV and the Pentagon : Hello sirs, i'm just a french dude, can you please send me some baguette and wine delivery at the following address please? :
420 rue de la baguette,
11800 honhon ville
Ouioui region, France

 

[RiffRaff]

U.S. GOV / Pentagon absolutely 110% monitors this site, and knows who everyone is. Only way to hide your identity on here is a very VERY good VPN, logged in from an anonymous email, anonymous IP registered to a random business, burner computer with a fresh Mac Address purchased with cash while face is masked, face masked while using a random IP not at your home address, never provide payment information, burner account, and most importantly, never ever talk about fight club.

Without those steps, any breadcrumb you leave in your digital footprint will lead them right to you.

Adversaries monitor it too, by the way. Our geopolitical and military analysis here is VERY valuable, because it’s free, and most of the time spot on. This is why OPSEC is so important.

We know for a fact that the US military monitors this site. I don't think they care so much about who or where we are, and they know we're not a fringe conspiracy site or part of a militia. Their biggest concern is that we are sometimes aware of US military movement that they do not want us to make public.

Besides, my name is in so many government databases that trying to avoid tracking here would be pointless.

No, I won't specify *which* databases.

 

[Publius]

We know for a fact that the US military monitors this site. I don't think they care so much about who or where we are, and they know we're not a fringe conspiracy site or part of a militia. Their biggest concern is that we are sometimes aware of US military movement that they do not want us to make public.

Besides, my name is in so many government databases that trying to avoid tracking here would be pointless.

No, I won't specify *which* databases.

If they wanted to know they would know.
I try and use the same rule here as I do in life.
If you wouldn’t say it to the person in question face to face.
Then don’t say it online.

 

[willrod1989]

I believe that someone said earlier that it would take states seceding for a civil war to start. That is very inaccurate and is mostly an artifact of how people view the last civil war. In fact, in Latin America, the American Civil War is referred to as the "Guerra de Secesión" or the "War of Secession". It is not generally seen as your typical civil war, but in fact was a war between a de jure nation state and a de facto breakaway republic. Most civil wars involve many different factions of the government, military, and civilian population competing for control of different regions or the nation-state as a whole.

A better example of a modern civil war in a western country would be The Troubles in Ireland. You had both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland claiming jurisdiction in the same area, while paramilitary groups such as the IRA and the Ulster Volunteer Forces duked it out on the streets of Belfast and Derry. A second American civil war would look more like that than the clean North vs. South (or Red States vs. Blue States) that people would imagine.

 

[Publius]

I believe that someone said earlier that it would take states seceding for a civil war to start. That is very inaccurate and is mostly an artifact of how people view the last civil war. In fact, in Latin America, the American Civil War is referred to as the "Guerra de Secesión" or the "War of Secession". It is not generally seen as your typical civil war, but in fact was a war between a de jure nation state and a de facto breakaway republic. Most civil wars involve many different factions of the government, military, and civilian population competing for control of different regions or the nation-state as a whole.

A better example of a modern civil war in a western country would be The Troubles in Ireland. You had both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland claiming jurisdiction in the same area, while paramilitary groups such as the IRA and the Ulster Volunteer Forces duked it out on the streets of Belfast and Derry. A second American civil war would look more like that than the clean North vs. South (or Red States vs. Blue States) that people would imagine.

Good point, in that regard we are just a few degrees of separation from civil war.
That doesn’t however remove the question of our organization as republic.
Let’s say one faction had success in the next 2-8 years and a new gov is “installed”.
That doesn’t however remove the states and secession. If an objectionable Gov retains or gains power and acts counter to the constitution. We will still see states moving towards secession. Or worse yet organized resistance at the state level.

In a nation this large, this well armed and clearly split on federal control and states rights. Don’t expect a large numbers of states who oppose the outcome to stand idly by.

What in reality is going on right now is one or both sides are working to create some kind of real flash point incident that would cause the other side to back down.

In essence playing chicken with the nations future.

 

[intel-bank]

Good point, in that regard we are just a few degrees of separation from civil war.
That doesn’t however remove the question of our organization as republic.
Let’s say one faction had success in the next 2-8 years and a new gov is “installed”.
That doesn’t however remove the states and secession. If an objectionable Gov retains or gains power and acts counter to the constitution. We will still see states moving towards secession. Or worse yet organized resistance at the state level.

In a nation this large, this well armed and clearly split on federal control and states rights. Don’t expect a large numbers of states who oppose the outcome to stand idly by.

What in reality is going on right now is one or both sides are working to create some kind of real flash point incident that would cause the other side to back down.

In essence playing chicken with the nations future.

While balkanization is possible, I have my doubts that it could happen quickly enough to avoid a war which would likely break down state borders completely. I still stand by I don’t expect a traditional civil war yet, I’ve heard a lot of talk of balkanization but I have my doubts it can be pulled off in the same way or same degree.

 

[Publius]

While balkanization is possible, I have my doubts that it could happen quickly enough to avoid a war which would likely break down state borders completely. I still stand by I don’t expect a traditional civil war yet, I’ve heard a lot of talk of balkanization but I have my doubts it can be pulled off in the same way or same degree.

Here’s what plays into this to add to any balkanization. There are many states where the population are significantly divided. My state and many others as I’ve pointed out have nascent infra state secession movements.
Where it might potentially get ugly is urban pockets in some the rural areas or many states.

But no one can really know. The only purpose in any this speculation is simply to provide a framework of potentials to watch for.

 

[intel-bank]

I feel this is relevant to the subject, but I’m posting it under the assumption we will behave if/when responding and keep it analytical and avoid declaring war on each other

This is about things that indicate a nuclear superpower may be collapsing or entering civil conflict.

Leftist and liberal gun groups are seeing a rush of new members​

Several niche, left-leaning gun advocacy groups said that since the killing of Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis, they can hardly keep up with the surging demand for firearms training.

With President Donald Trump sending armed federal agents into communities around the country, even more once gun-shy liberals and leftists are considering getting armed. And while Americans tend to think of gun owners as leaning more Republican and male, already more women, gay people and people of color have taken up arms in recent years, particularly after 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/01/us/gun-rights-politics-alex-pretti-killing-cec

 

[Soldiereye]

Below is a post elsewhere, from a comrade. Puts things in perspective for those questioning things…
While I support removing ILLEGALS from our country for national security etc, the way it is being done is not in accordance with laws or the very core of what this country stands for.

-From a Special Forces Perspective - this is what is happening in Minnesota AND what could happen across America if action is not taken quickly to stop it!
As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly.

What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook.

Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse.

This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s.

The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity.

I spent years training partner forces to dismantle exactly this kind of apparatus. Now pieces of it are standing up in American cities, enabled by elements of local government and civil society. That should keep every thinking American awake at night.

Not because I want escalation. But because history shows these things don’t de-escalate on their own once the infrastructure exists and the cadre believe they’re winning the information war.

We either recognize what we’re actually looking at—or we pretend it’s still just “activism” until the structures harden and spread.

Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore.

It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.-

 

[intel-bank]

It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.-

The war always comes home

 

[45-1911guy]

The war always comes home

No, the war was forced on to some of us, I am willing to bet that there is still a great big group of people in the middle that will not play this game, let the extremists on both sides go at it, the extremists on both sides could deescalate and deal with this at the voting box, but they didn't, the extremists on both sides chose violence.

so for those in the middle when this stuff is shoved down our throats, most of us won't care when the extremists go at it, it will not be CW 2.0 and huge battles it will be more like Northern Ireland. but the large group in the middle will soon demand it to stop and that moment is the true cross roads, for the middle group will wait and beg that it burns itself out, but when it does not the middle group will then need to decide, 1) let the Govt off the leash on the extremists on both sides or 2) the middle group will go after both extremists themselves and then this country really is in trouble in either case.

the extremists on both sides are what is destroying this country, MANY people in the middle are just trying to get by, sure they disagree with each other but none of them are to the point of picking up weapons, many people in the middle just want to live and provide for their families, when the safety and security that this nation enjoys and that many people have come accustomed to starts to fade the people in the middle will defend it.

There are many people in the middle politically that just want to be left alone, and just want to live their lives, The ultra right will call them Traitors and the ultra left will call them extremists, but at the end of the day I am willing to bet this group that wants no part of it, and is bigger than we think, people working jobs and enjoying a house and comfortable living, raising a family, living like the old ways, they don't start trouble and they avoid conflict.

A slap fight between the two extremes does not scare me, let the extremists fight. what scares me is the middle ground getting tired of the violence, the hate, the horrible speeches, and going total war against extremism on both sides. for either the middle will do it themselves, OR they will demand the government intervene and either of those will have much more and worse consequences to this country than this extremist slap fight.

all in all there are many people that dislike both sides, they have good jobs, they want to be left alone, they just want to work and provide for their families and extremists on both sides want to drag them into some conflict, my gut feeling is that middle group will not just go along with it.

but that is only my opinion, it could very well be true and the US truly is polarized beyond repair and the majority have taken sides. I don't know.

 

[Publius]

Sadly from watching news, social media and comments here.
I have come to the conclusion that the population is approaching an existential break. A division so large and so emotionally packed that there will be reconciliation

Hope you like what you get. There won’t be armies lining up to fight or stand off at state lines.
It will be large scale infrastructure sabotage.
Political killings
Almost universal disruption of gov funding and social services.

Just temper it won’t be for justice or concern for the down and out.
It will solely be motivated political ambition and control.
I’m ready but entirely disappointed and saddened.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Sadly from watching news, social media and comments here.
I have come to the conclusion that the population is approaching an existential break. A division so large and so emotionally packed that there will be reconciliation

I think the media likes to focus on the exciting things to drive ratings. The protesters are an insignificant minority of the US population. While a lot of people have opinions, the vast majority go to work, raise families, and want to be left alone. They aren't interested in going to war or taking up arms or fighting the "other side".

I'm more concerned about putting food on the table than I am about illegal immigrants. I think you'll find most people feel that way.

 

[intel-bank]

I'm more concerned about putting food on the table than I am about illegal immigrants. I think you'll find most people feel that way.

I’m just trying to make sure there are still people to feed, I don’t personally protect undocumented migrants but I fully believe it will not stop there. The patterns I see are the kind that call for early action. Many many others feel the same way.

If I were to estimate, there’s a 15-33% actionable group on either side of the spectrum which is millions, then 1/3-1/2 which are unlikely to ever take any action including voting.
Again we are talking millions of people. 1% of Americans is nearly twice the casualties of the Russia-Ukraine war.

12% have attended a protest last year according to YouGov Democrats are more likely than Republicans to describe recent protests as peaceful and hopeful | YouGov

 

[GBS61]

I think the media likes to focus on the exciting things to drive ratings. The protesters are an insignificant minority of the US population. While a lot of people have opinions, the vast majority go to work, raise families, and want to be left alone. They aren't interested in going to war or taking up arms or fighting the "other side".

I'm more concerned about putting food on the table than I am about illegal immigrants. I think you'll find most people feel that way.

Everything is fine, Madame la Marquise.

 

[PeacePlease]

I think the media likes to focus on the exciting things to drive ratings. The protesters are an insignificant minority of the US population. While a lot of people have opinions, the vast majority go to work, raise families, and want to be left alone. They aren't interested in going to war or taking up arms or fighting the "other side".

I'm more concerned about putting food on the table than I am about illegal immigrants. I think you'll find most people feel that way.

Totally agree go to any store on a Friday ask if they will be going to the protest tomorrow. They will ask what are we protesting this time. The only way I'm going out there to protest is If food ain't hitting my famlies table.