Middle Eastern Regional War | March 27th/April 4th | Analysis

[Lostpuppy]

I guess my whole point is is that you can absolutely argue/question how this war is being conducted/planned. You can argue and debate the timing of this war when it should have happened. Can even question the sanity of Trump. Question everything about it, yes, as everyone should.

BUT you cannot state as fact that Iran isn't a threat to the US. That is not a real debate, that is blatantly and overtly false, that is just narrative and party politics disguised as debate/analysis and will bluntly call it out everytime regardless whom it is.

If partly politics is eliminated completely!!!!
Both sides!!!! completely ,
If facts were clearly exposed and intell not directed in pattern response
the iran story evolves from the 50’s

The palistinian one before the 1925

the oil game in the east predates WW1


So you are right Iran is a threat to the US, and many nations

Russia is a nuclear threat to the US
china is an economic threat to the US
Cuba is a threat,
Venezuela is a threat,
we could likely go on,

Was oil and trade moving in hormuz before Iran being engaged ?yes

Was there always a threat? Yes
Is there an ongoing threat to the Suez , yes

After Iran is no more, will America have to constantly look over its shoulder, Yes

Study how the people of Belfast had to live daily in the 70’s




Living our lives in constant threat is strenuous to people.

Walking around with a big stick is fine.

Eventually other nations percieve you(your nation) as a bully and responds,

Please someone say they have never encountered a bully,

Sir, you will not agree with me, nor do i not care, we all can not always agree!

My part , i only hope is to reveal facts. I hope facts make people mad sometimes as we all get tunnel vision, and miss the important stuff happening right before our eyes.

I think the director encouraged free speech , the opportunity to offer opinions , which you snd i both have as does the many others in DWS.
To subitt these points in a professional nonderogatory way is the most professional way to conduct ourselves.

 

[TSARBomba91]

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hardens position: No matter who puts pressure on me, Britain will not be dragged into war in the Middle East.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2038634566982729787

To fair its not like have an Army to send. We have 2 Aircraft Carriers but nothing to defend them with!

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

To fair its not like have an Army to send. We have 2 Aircraft Carriers but nothing to defend them with!

Except for the flotilla of escort ships.

 

[TSARBomba91]

Trump says U.S. could end Iran war in two to three weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039118233593061758

Without boots on the grounds or reopening the Strait?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Without boots on the grounds

That's possible. Iran's economy is fracked. The only problem is that the IRGC is in control, and they are willing to sacrifice the population

or reopening the Strait?

That would definitely be seen as a retreat by the US.

 

[GBS61]

Trump to Address the Nation Wednesday Evening
Donald Trump will address the nation Wednesday evening regarding Iran, the White House press secretary announced Tuesday on X.

"Tomorrow evening at 9 p.m. local time (Eastern Time), President Trump will address the nation to provide important new information on Iran," wrote Karoline Leavitt.

Source: Agence France-Presse

Either he announces that the US is ending the war
or the start of the ground invasion

 

[TSARBomba91]

That would definitely be seen as a retreat by the US.

He mentioned he "might do that later".

I am sick of him saying that he's talking with Iran but I don't buy that he's wining them over.

 

[TSARBomba91]

Trump to Address the Nation Wednesday Evening
Donald Trump will address the nation Wednesday evening regarding Iran, the White House press secretary announced Tuesday on X.

"Tomorrow evening at 9 p.m. local time (Eastern Time), President Trump will address the nation to provide important new information on Iran," wrote Karoline Leavitt.

Source: Agence France-Presse

Either he announces that the US is ending the war
or the start of the ground invasion

I don't think it will be a full Ground Invasion there's not enough troops ready for that. They will probably involve some boots on the ground. Probably Marines and the Airborne to take the Strait or Special Forces to go for Iran's Uranium.

The fear is it could lead to a much bigger conflict. Especially if the troops can't be extracted deep into Iranian territory.

I'd would go for their naval bases and ports and seize them but I don't think their is enough troops for that now to hold them.

Trump would not announce the ending unless Iran gave into all of the US's demands which is unlikely.

Any activity from US Allies in the region could indicate something too.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I'm betting he will say we have won and are starting the wind down process.

 

[NuclearID]

That's possible. Iran's economy is fracked. The only problem is that the IRGC is in control, and they are willing to sacrifice the population

Hence why they are enlisting 12 year olds to man posts in cities to prevent protests. You heard that right.

Iran may very well collapse. However it may be after the bombs stop falling. Even with the threat of death, if after a week of having no food or water people will come out of their homes, for the Iranians it will come down to either fight or starve to death in their homes at that point when we have collapsed their economy so hard. As since the start of the war Iran has essentially put into effect a permanent curfew and check points to wall off cities into blocks.

Hell the other day we hit their food factories. So.

 

[Cilvilt_beredskap]

The main thing is that there is a difference between how Rubio and the others in the Trump admin view NATO and how Europeans do, and perhaps Canada. First, they view it as a purely defensive alliance with no obligation to join in someone else's offensive war. Second, they aren't convinced how effective the war in Iran even will be and probably think their own security will suffer for it. So, they don't view it as a defensive war. Many offensive wars have always been framed as defensive wars (Vietnam among them, even), so to say that this is a defensive war compared to like if Poland would be attacked is dumb, and leaving NATO over it is also something incredibly dumb to do as well. Reminder that article 5 has only been used once, during 9/11, when the rest of the alliance came to the aid of the US. Without article 5 enacted any country can decide on how much they want to help a member since it's not seen as a defensive war by the alliance.

 

[Cilvilt_beredskap]

Oh, right. It was also a desicion taken without consulting the rest of the alliance in likely any capacity. Maybe because it was suspected they'd disagree

 

[Lostpuppy]

Markets are a little weird, as we await Wednesdsy night statement, WTI, Brent both stable , gold creeping up. Russia oil way up today 123$ last peak, versus US WTO 101$.

What has happened?

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[Lostpuppy]

Senior Iranian official: "We are not negotiating, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened".

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039293367629062302

good story about historical hostage event!

 

[Torch]

The main thing is that there is a difference between how Rubio and the others in the Trump admin view NATO and how Europeans do, and perhaps Canada. First, they view it as a purely defensive alliance with no obligation to join in someone else's offensive war. Second, they aren't convinced how effective the war in Iran even will be and probably think their own security will suffer for it. So, they don't view it as a defensive war. Many offensive wars have always been framed as defensive wars (Vietnam among them, even), so to say that this is a defensive war compared to like if Poland would be attacked is dumb, and leaving NATO over it is also something incredibly dumb to do as well. Reminder that article 5 has only been used once, during 9/11, when the rest of the alliance came to the aid of the US. Without article 5 enacted any country can decide on how much they want to help a member since it's not seen as a defensive war by the alliance.

The USA didn't ask anyone to fight. The US simply wanted to use airspace and bases that were preexisting just for those purposes. It wasnt much of an ask. Im fairly certain NATO is now over. (Yeah!)

Hopefully now the USA can go back to “cash and carry”, focusing on making money not fighting wars that benefits others. Iran is a perfect example. Let Iran’s European neighbors deal with a nuclear armed Persia with MRBM’s.

Currently the strait is closed and nobody wants to help. Well guess what? It can stay closed, wont effect the USA in the slightest as we are a hydrocarbon exporter.

In fact Now that we removed the Varsity Terrorist Team and the JV is displaced and half the intramural team is gone, we should just ease on down the road.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Pakistan is playing peacemaker in one war while fighting another​

The South Asian nation has emerged as an unlikely mediator in global efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. But it is also engaged in its most severe fighting in decades with neighboring Afghanistan, a conflict that has been largely overshadowed by the war in the Middle East.

Pakistan is playing peacemaker in one war while fighting another

The South Asian nation has emerged as an unlikely mediator in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran as it engages in its most severe fighting in decades with neighboring Afghanistan.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Lostpuppy]

The USA didn't ask anyone to fight. The US simply wanted to use airspace and bases that were preexisting just for those purposes. It wasnt much of an ask. Im fairly certain NATO is now over. (Yeah!)

Hopefully now the USA can go back to “cash and carry”, focusing on making money not fighting wars that benefits others. Iran is a perfect example. Let Iran’s European neighbors deal with a nuclear armed Persia with MRBM’s.

Currently the strait is closed and nobody wants to help. Well guess what? It can stay closed, wont effect the USA in the slightest as we are a hydrocarbon exporter. In fact Now that we removed the Varsity Terrorist Team and the JV is displaced and have the intramural team is gone we should just ease on down the road.

I do have a question, it may not be liked,

What brought about the closure? When did this happen?

asking for the guests that cant?

 

[Lostpuppy]

Anyone think the Rubio statement will cause the markets to increase this morning? Everyone is so tranfixed in a sandbox fight, You all are missing important details,

And its effecting your wallets,

 

[Winnitude]

Currently the strait is closed and nobody wants to help. Well guess what? It can stay closed, wont effect the USA in the slightest as we are a hydrocarbon exporter. In fact Now that we removed the Varsity Terrorist Team and the JV is displaced and have the intramural team is gone we should just ease on down the road.

Provided the federal government is willing to yank enough levers that cut into the profits of oil companies in order to secure a domestic supply at a reasonable price for citizens that is. You're still vulnerable to global price shocks.

The USA didn't ask anyone to fight. The US simply wanted to use airspace and bases that were preexisting just for those purposes. It wasnt much of an ask. Im fairly certain NATO is now over. (Yeah!)

Hopefully now the USA can go back to “cash and carry”, focusing on making money not fighting wars that benefits others. Iran is a perfect example. Let Iran’s European neighbors deal with a nuclear armed Persia with MRBM’s.

I do seem to remember the US explicitly stating it would be left to European allies to join the fight and reopen the strait after the US seemingly unilaterally screwed things up in the region even more than they were before. But anyway-what's the goal here? If it was to prevent a nuclear Iran how is going "Welp yup let's just let Europe deal with a newer more aggressive hardline Iran!" anything even remotely similar to a win...?

It very much seems Iran the brutal dictatorship with a rational need for strategic deterrence due to having existential enemies in the region who have nuclear weapons, has been transformed into Iran the active ticking nuclear time bomb through this war and all they've managed to do is set back the financial conditions while creating the political conditions to justify Iran building a bomb and using it on Israel. They have actualized the monster from their propaganda into reality.

Though it reminds me of the fact that they said the nuclear program was gone and damaged beyond repair months ago before kicking off a whole war with the exact same public justification and then kept changing the story on the mission.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Provided the federal government is willing to yank enough levers that cut into the profits of oil companies in order to secure a domestic supply at a reasonable price for citizens that is. You're still vulnerable to global price shocks.



I do seem to remember the US explicitly stating it would be left to European allies to join the fight and reopen the strait after the US seemingly unilaterally screwed things up in the region even more than they were before. But anyway-what's the goal here? If it was to prevent a nuclear Iran how is going "Welp yup let's just let Europe deal with a newer more aggressive hardline Iran!" anything even remotely similar to a win...?

It very much seems Iran the brutal dictatorship with a rational need for strategic deterrence due to having existential enemies in the region who have nuclear weapons, has been transformed into Iran the active ticking nuclear time bomb through this war and all they've managed to do is set back the financial conditions while creating the political conditions to justify Iran building a bomb and using it on Israel. They have actualized the monster from their propaganda into reality.

Though it reminds me of the fact that they said the nuclear program was gone and damaged beyond repair months ago before kicking off a whole war with the exact same public justification and then kept changing the story on the mission.

Good points,
Anyone know where the domestic supply comes from?