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Middle Eastern Regional War | March 27th/April 4th | Analysis

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Iran claimed to have shot down a second fighter jet that crashed in the Gulf late in the day.

(according to the New York Times (NYT))
Im not surprised. They are taking enormous risk, flying tac air low level all over Iran, including helicopters which fly in the effective air defense envelope of everything.

You start getting in on smaller targets and you’re sending in tac air in daylight! They are very vulnerable to ground fire. It’s the heaviest losses in any war.
 
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Where is the official assumption written down that in attacking Iran the US must follow through to the point of establishing a new gov and reconstruction?
Or that it is in the long term interest of the US to ensure the strait is quickly opened and secured.

“It’s just a question.”
Why is it the job of the US OR in the interest of the US to ensure that the strait of Hormuz is open and secured for the world’s oil to flow.
Ahh the petro dollar will be quoted. The dollars valuation has very little to do with oil anymore. Even if it was, who is the largest hydrocarbon producer in the world today? The US produces more oil than the Saudis and Russians combined. So even if there are ancillary ties to oil for the dollar. The US is the fat dog in the mud puddle.

But we default to the assumption that of course the US would be racing to open the strait and ensure a new gov is established in Iran.
“Well that’s the way of things and how it’s been done since Breton-wood’s. So of course it’s in the US interest to ensure the free flow of oil.”
Is it, why?

Or is it more in the interest of the US to break up ossified geopolitical assumptions and crutch’s. Disruption of stagnant geopolitical issues has only ever been the recourse. Absent of course eventually war.

The established way of dealing with Iran and terrorism has not worked. Hands down it’s been a gigantic colossal failure. It’s a failure because it only ever contained, never fixed anything.

I also find it ironic that everyone’s worried about the price of gas. Many of the same individuals and interest groups who are railing about climate change and green energy.
Are quick to lament and point fingers at spiking energy cost being the fault of the attacks on Iran as horrific and such a burden on normals.
“That these higher fuel prices are unacceptable or unfair.”

All while everyone knows it has been the stated goal of conservation groups and activist to Work to drive energy prices higher and higher thus driving demand down. Those are called carbon taxes and greenhouse credits. The creation of a completely fictional trading market for companies to buy get out of jail cards. All for the stated purpose of increasing prices and changing market demands. A legalized protection racket.

I have questions about what Trumps long term objectives are with Iran.
Obviously it’s not nation building. It’s been clearly stated that it is the people of Iran job to change their government.

So I have found the above questions useful in pondering what Trumps overall objectives are.
I think it is without question one of the main messages or objective is to put Europe on notice about shouldering their burden in defense of trade routes.
Bretton-Woods is dead!

It’s also I think it has conclusively demonstrated we will pound Irans military and national gov so hard they can no longer be of any influence outside their wreaked nation.
With zero guarantees given for national reform or reconstruction. They’re not my monkeys, not my circus

Everyone’s knows baseball, there was a version of it played by American boys decades ago. And I don’t mean stick ball.
We played it with a stick and walnut sized rocks. You scored not by reaching home plate. You scored when you hit the rock and were able to hit your friends with the rock.

The time for holding a jirga is over. Talk has produced little.
In the words of Mark Rutte;
“If anyone thinks here again that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming. You can’t. We can’t. We need each other.”

Life is a contact sport, sometimes it’s chaotic and painful. And I will remind everyone of NATO’s dual purpose.
Classic quote attributed to but not confirmed to (Lord Ismay, first Sec-Gen): “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”
 
“It’s just a question.”
Why is it the job of the US OR in the interest of the US to ensure that the strait of Hormuz is open and secured for the world’s oil to flow.
Ahh the petro dollar will be quoted. The dollars valuation has very little to do with oil anymore. Even if it was, who is the largest hydrocarbon producer in the world today? The US produces more oil than the Saudis and Russians combined. So even if there are ancillary ties to oil for the dollar. The US is the fat dog in the mud puddle.
It's not complicated to understand, the US just has to finish what they started, that is, win this war and the strait will open naturally, end of story.
 
Where is the official assumption written down that in attacking Iran the US must follow through to the point of establishing a new gov and reconstruction?
Or that it is in the long term interest of the US to ensure the strait is quickly opened and secured.

“It’s just a question.”
Why is it the job of the US OR in the interest of the US to ensure that the strait of Hormuz is open and secured for the world’s oil to flow.
Ahh the petro dollar will be quoted. The dollars valuation has very little to do with oil anymore. Even if it was, who is the largest hydrocarbon producer in the world today? The US produces more oil than the Saudis and Russians combined. So even if there are ancillary ties to oil for the dollar. The US is the fat dog in the mud puddle.

But we default to the assumption that of course the US would be racing to open the strait and ensure a new gov is established in Iran.
“Well that’s the way of things and how it’s been done since Breton-wood’s. So of course it’s in the US interest to ensure the free flow of oil.”
Is it, why?

Or is it more in the interest of the US to break up ossified geopolitical assumptions and crutch’s. Disruption of stagnant geopolitical issues has only ever been the recourse. Absent of course eventually war.

The established way of dealing with Iran and terrorism has not worked. Hands down it’s been a gigantic colossal failure. It’s a failure because it only ever contained, never fixed anything.

I also find it ironic that everyone’s worried about the price of gas. Many of the same individuals and interest groups who are railing about climate change and green energy.
Are quick to lament and point fingers at spiking energy cost being the fault of the attacks on Iran as horrific and such a burden on normals.
“That these higher fuel prices are unacceptable or unfair.”

All while everyone knows it has been the stated goal of conservation groups and activist to Work to drive energy prices higher and higher thus driving demand down. Those are called carbon taxes and greenhouse credits. The creation of a completely fictional trading market for companies to buy get out of jail cards. All for the stated purpose of increasing prices and changing market demands. A legalized protection racket.

I have questions about what Trumps long term objectives are with Iran.
Obviously it’s not nation building. It’s been clearly stated that it is the people of Iran job to change their government.

So I have found the above questions useful in pondering what Trumps overall objectives are.
I think it is without question one of the main messages or objective is to put Europe on notice about shouldering their burden in defense of trade routes.
Bretton-Woods is dead!

It’s also I think it has conclusively demonstrated we will pound Irans military and national gov so hard they can no longer be of any influence outside their wreaked nation.
With zero guarantees given for national reform or reconstruction. They’re not my monkeys, not my circus

Everyone’s knows baseball, there was a version of it played by American boys decades ago. And I don’t mean stick ball.
We played it with a stick and walnut sized rocks. You scored not by reaching home plate. You scored when you hit the rock and were able to hit your friends with the rock.

The time for holding a jirga is over. Talk has produced little.
In the words of Mark Rutte;
“If anyone thinks here again that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming. You can’t. We can’t. We need each other.”

Life is a contact sport, sometimes it’s chaotic and painful. And I will remind everyone of NATO’s dual purpose.
Classic quote attributed to but not confirmed to (Lord Ismay, first Sec-Gen): “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”
they started that, if they don't finish it, it will be worse than before for a lot of nations. USA could lose credibility and allies about that (they don't have much credibilities for the EU allies after Greenland already)

By losing allies, there is a lose of influence power.
 
QUOTE="DEFCON Warning System, post: 314804, member: 2"]
At the moment, it seems Iran believes they can wait out US resolve.

Whoever is running Iran is buried so deep that they aren't worried.
[/QUOTE]
Could not have said it better.

Not saying it's guaranteed the regime will collapse.... but it is looking pretty probable especially when the bombs stop dropping.

Not sure how the Iranian regime will take control short of killing the entire population because of starvation and thirst. IF they really are using 12 year old to keep control. Their doomed.

👉Short of Western media I cannot prove they're using 12-year-olds. So take it with a grain of salt like I am, I am not using this information as a strategic soundboard as to what may come next, it is just a probability imo. Not a guarantee and shouldn't be used as a wild card....
 
they started that, if they don't finish it, it will be worse than before for a lot of nations. USA could lose credibility and allies about that (they don't have much credibilities for the EU allies after Greenland already)

By losing allies, there is a lose of influence power.
Again Why? That is an assumption.
If the plan IS disruption then its already succeeded.
“The US will lose credibility”
Yes in the eyes of some this will be true for a time.
But that’s like saying your neighbor is mad at you and consequently it will be that way for ever?

I know many like to say the US contribution to WW2 was not as significant as others. All I can say to that is you haven’t read WW2 history, it’s an opinion.
Ok fine be mad do I really care in the larger picture.
If Putin were to invade nato and the US doesn’t show up much of nato is lost!

Which of the European nations are going to launch a blue water navy and start patrolling the trade routes of the oceans. Which of them are going to counter Chinas navy in the pacific.
WTFU and get with the program
 
Not saying it's guaranteed the regime will collapse.... but it is looking pretty probable especially when the bombs stop dropping.
I don't see that. Iran has been pretty good at suppressing dissent. Gunning down thousands of protesters has that effect.

Not sure how the Iranian regime will take control short of killing the entire population because of starvation and thirst.
You think they are above that?

IF they really are using 12 year old to keep control. Their doomed.
They aren't using 12 year olds to keep control, are they. More for checkpoints, cooking, distribution, etc. Per Human Rights Watch. Iran: Military Stepping Up Child Recruitment

👉Short of Western media I cannot prove they're using 12-year-olds. So take it with a grain of salt like I am, I am not using this information as a strategic soundboard as to what may come next, it is just a probability imo. Not a guarantee and shouldn't be used as a wild card....
They are.
 
Im not surprised. They are taking enormous risk, flying tac air low level all over Iran, including helicopters which fly in the effective air defense envelope of everything.

You start getting in on smaller targets and you’re sending in tac air in daylight! They are very vulnerable to ground fire. It’s the heaviest losses in any war.
Those A10s are hard to kill.
 
Again Why? That is an assumption.
If the plan IS disruption then its already succeeded.
“The US will lose credibility”
Yes in the eyes of some this will be true for a time.
But that’s like saying your neighbor is mad at you and consequently it will be that way for ever?

I know many like to say the US contribution to WW2 was not as significant as others. All I can say to that is you haven’t read WW2 history, it’s an opinion.
Ok fine be mad do I really care in the larger picture.
If Putin were to invade nato and the US doesn’t show up much of nato is lost!

Which of the European nations are going to launch a blue water navy and start patrolling the trade routes of the oceans. Which of them are going to counter Chinas navy in the pacific.
WTFU and get with the program
Let's stay on topic, i've never said (or thinked) that the USA's contribution wasn't as significant as others, and i don't even know why you bring WW2 up?


About the neighbor metaphor, we are in a different situation. The USA since few months has been acting against Europe, even threatening of invasion (and Tarriff if we didn't supported the US's take over of Greenland). Now, the US started a war that is affecting all of Europe and won't finish it. Basically, if the US don't finish what they started, then they are basically making a mess and letting other clean up. All of that does make the USA seen as unreliable, untrustworthy and not credible. It doesn't means that Europe will cut all ties with the US.

Also, about the event of a Russian attack on Nato, even without the US, they won't be able to invade. They tried and failed to invade Ukraine after several years of war, Europe is already providing majority of military and intel aid to Ukraine. Russia isn't able to invade Europe currently (even in a situation of a conventionnal war without the use of nuclear arsenal)

However, i agree that Europe needs to step up to defend the ocean. We are on the way of improving on that, but we need to do better.


Don't worry, we don't need to WTFU, we are already awoken (awaken?) and working on improvment. But you need to start being aware of how the USA isn't seen as an trustworthy ally anymore (which is a good thing for Europe), and that the diplomatic damage that the current administration did will take years to repair
 
Those A10s are hard to kill.
The helicopters are not and the aerial refueling platforms flying just above stall, servicing the helicopters are extraordinarily compromised. Its magnificent to see, just extraordinarily dangerous.
 
But you need to start being aware of how the USA isn't seen as an trustworthy ally anymore (which is a good thing for Europe), and that the diplomatic damage that the current administration did will take years to repair

Does Europe not realize the USA is no longer concerned with Nato? We were pulling back/out already and now many in The EU/NATO want to complain ghe cant oil, but wont DO anything to help secure it.

The Eu and western NATO members are seen as feckless, ineffective and most of all, untrustworthy allies. The USA is basing these planes in Europe to protect YOU. It is the height of arrogance for the EU to think we might not need are own planes somewhere else sometimes.

So not only is the USA required to defend Europe, apparently europe/Nato believe the USA must solely dedicate our equipment and soldiers to EU/Nato’s exclusive, personal and private security.

Europe is wrong and the USA, right or wrong, has now moved on without her.
 
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I find it incredibly intriguing that two of the world's most powerful militaries are having problems winning wars against two countries with much smaller land masses, populations, miltiaries, and weapons technology. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan (USSR), Iraq, Afghanistan (US) all held their own against two nuclear superpowers. Iran might now join that list.
 
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