Middle Eastern Regional War | March 27th/April 4th | Analysis

[NP777]

Passover starts in Israel in 45 minutes 5 missile warnings in Tel Aviv 45 min ago all clear then multiple launches across Israel including Jerusalem, Haifa and again Tel Aviv. And Passover lasts until sunset April 9. Friday is Good Friday and Sunday is Easter. Buckle up, I think it’s about to get bumpy

 

[teekay99]

Russia is imposing a ban on all gasoline exports due to the Iran war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039362382284140858

Is this right? I thought oil exports were a significant contributor to the Russian economy, such as it is.... This seems like a bad decision for Russia.

 

[teekay99]

Trump told Reuters he would state in an address to the nation later on Wednesday that he was "absolutely" considering withdrawing the United States from NATO, echoing comments he made in an interview with Britain's Daily Telegraph after allies failed to back U.S. military action against Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039357405411135651

I could not help but notice that President Trump's address to the nation is occurring on 1 April. What kind of April fools jokes will we hear?

 

[NuclearID]

Is this right? I thought oil exports were a significant contributor to the Russian economy, such as it is.... This seems like a bad decision for Russia.

This is not especially surprising. Ukraine has spent the past year and a half steadily degrading Russian oil logistics and refining infrastructure, and Russia has already faced reported fuel shortages at home during that period & currently.

In that context, a halt in exports suggests Moscow may be prioritizing domestic demand, especially if repeated strikes have materially constrained both production and distribution capacity.


Another point that has not received much attention is that, since the Iran war began, Ukraine appears to have intensified its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure even beyond its usual pace.

I could not help but notice that President Trump's address to the nation is occurring on 1 April. What kind of April fools jokes will we hear?

I doubt it. His messaging on NATO has been fairly consistent over the past week, so this feels less like an April Fool’s joke and more like the next step in the broader fallout involving NATO and the EU.

Frankly, I would not be shocked if he announced a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Spain, and possibly from a few other European countries as well. Even so, I still doubt he goes that far.

 

[Snowfall]

Frankly wouldn't be shocked if he said he's withdrawing all US troops or forces from Spain and possibly a few other European countries. However I doubt it.

I’m guessing Trump will continue to complain about NATO, but in the end won’t actually pull out.

 

[Torch]

Good points,
Anyone know where the domestic supply comes from?

A lot if not a plurality comes from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Oklahoma. Louisiana Mississippi and even the Western Floridas get most of it offshore in thr Gulf of America. Texas has some Offshore but most now is in fraking, Oklahoma too.

We have many more decades here and in Alaska. We are a floating in oil.

 

[TSARBomba91]

Wouldn't Trump need Congress or the Pentagon's approval to do such an insane thing as leave NATO?

Trump may got more support from Europe if he hadn't dicked around with Greenland and threaten his Allies with tariffs. Trump really didn't think this conflict with Iran through.

Putin would come hard in his pants if the US pulled out of NATO.

Except for the flotilla of escort ships.

Except we don't have that either. We have ONE fully operational Destroyer. Most of our ships are out of operation for maintenance.

For a Island Nation its woeful and embarrassing.

I am sorry but pulling out of Iran for the Europeans to deal with would be a disaster. China would be more emboldened to take Taiwan. Putin would more embolden with Ukraine. Not mention the world economy would be worse not better. The US would lose a lot of trust from its Allies in the Middle East from Israel to the Saudi's.

I mean you can't just go from "AMERICA FUCK YEAH!" into Tucker Carlson because you're too stupid to be prepared for the fallout and consequences of Assassinating a Countries leader (whom to radical Iranian Shi'ites was their Pope).

Also a don't think Iran will stop doing anything period.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Wouldn't Trump need Congress or the Pentagon's approval to do such an insane thing as leave NATO?

Trump may got more support from Europe if he hadn't dicked around with Greenland and threaten his Allies with tariffs. Trump really didn't think this conflict with Iran through.

Putin would come hard in his pants if the US pulled out of NATO.



Except we don't have that either. We have ONE fully operational Destroyer. Most of our ships are out of operation for maintenance.

For a Island Nation its woeful and embarrassing.

I am sorry but pulling out of Iran for the Europeans to deal with would be a disaster. China would be more emboldened to take Taiwan. Putin would more embolden with Ukraine. Not mention the world economy would be worse not better. The US would lose a lot of trust from its Allies in the Middle East from Israel to the Saudi's.

I mean you can't just go from "AMERICA FUCK YEAH!" into Tucker Carlson because you're too stupid to be prepared for the fallout and consequences of Assassinating a Countries leader (whom to radical Iranian Shi'ites was their Pope).

Also a don't think Iran will stop doing anything period.

Sounds nasty!!!

 

[Lostpuppy]

A lot if not a plurality comes from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Oklahoma. Louisiana Mississippi and even the Western Floridas get most of it offshore in thr Gulf of America. Texas has some Offshore but most now is in fraking, Oklahoma too.

We have many more decades here and in Alaska. We are a floating in oil.

Missed 62% but we do own venzuela, anddd could always just take from canada?

 

[NuclearID]

Wouldn't Trump need Congress or the Pentagon's approval to do such an insane thing as leave NATO?

No. To quit or null the treaty he would need congress.

HOWEVER (loophole) he does not need congress or anyone's approval to move troops or equipment. He can without a single doubt order all troops and equipment out of Europe and he wouldn't need anyone's approval to do so.

So while Trump can't leave NATO on papper. He can effectively end NATO but on papper.

It's is entirely at the commander in chiefs discretion to move troops and equipment. Not Congress. And he could simply move everything out of Europe, since he can't technically leave NATO on papper, he will end NATO but all in name instead by physically removing ourselves from Europe entirely. Same result really.


A lot of people will assume a future president could simply reverse the move and send everything back to Europe.

In reality, withdrawals are easier than redeployments. Once forces and equipment have been moved, reassigned, and integrated elsewhere like Asia, rebuilding that posture takes time, money, logistics, and political will. Which likely won't happen even if next president is a DEM.

 

[Lostpuppy]

No. To quit or null the treaty he would need congress.

However he does not need congress or anyone's approval to move troops or equipment. He can without a single doubt order all troops and equipment out of Europe and he wouldn't need anyone's approval to do so.

So while Trump can't leave NATO on papper. He can effectively end NATO but on papper.

It's is entirely at the commander in chiefs discretion to move troops and equipment. Not Congress. And he could simply move everything out of Europe, since he can't technically leave NATO on papper, he will end NATO but all in name instead by physically removing ourselves from Europe entirely. Same result really.

Yep! Putin will cream his jeans! SOrry ladies
The history books 50 years from now will be interesting,,, if

 

[Lostpuppy]

A lot if not a plurality comes from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Oklahoma. Louisiana Mississippi and even the Western Floridas get most of it offshore in thr Gulf of America. Texas has some Offshore but most now is in fraking, Oklahoma too.

We have many more decades here and in Alaska. We are a floating in oil.

Sorry , Torch buddy, this is from Google
Deep dive
I was curious where does all the oil come from,
from Goggle
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States, providing approximately
60%–62% of total U.S. crude oil imports as of 2024–2025. This amounts to roughly 4 to 4.4 million barrels per day, accounting for about 24%–25% of total U.S. refinery throughput.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +3
Key details on Canadian oil in the U.S.:

• Dominant Supplier: Canada supplies more oil to the U.S. than all other countries combined.
• Integration: Canadian crude accounts for 100% of foreign imports in the PADD 2 (Midwest) region and 73% in PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain).
• Type: Much of this is heavy oil from Alberta, used extensively by specialized U.S. refineries, particularly on the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest.
• Growth: Canadian imports have increased from 33% of U.S. imports in 2013 to over 60% in 2023–2024.
  U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +4

I actually posted this on “Lets talk oil” yesterday because i was reslly curious,

BUT, We are sliding off target, my bad!

 

[NuclearID]

I never like a silence like this. The news flow has nearly stopped for the last 48 hours, and in my experience that often means something significant is developing behind the scenes.

Whether it leads to escalation or de-escalation is impossible to say yet, but my instinct leans toward escalation. That said, I know my bias may be pulling me in that direction.

 

[Winnitude]

So based on the address the US is basically finished it's goals and will be done very fast, but also needs massively escalating strikes on infrastructure and 2-3 more weeks, which would be 50-75% more time to achieve what is stated to be a very tiny amount of the mission.

Am I missing something here? It really started off sounding like a "we won and the war is over, we will be withdrawing in the coming days" was coming and then the hard left turn to a timeline that seems impossible to judge and further escalations in the hope that it will make it happen?

What a load of nothing, feels like standard issue base placating

 

[NuclearID]

So based on the address the US is basically finished it's goals and will be done very fast, but also needs massively escalating strikes on infrastructure and 2-3 more weeks, which would be 50-75% more time to achieve what is stated to be a very tiny amount of the mission.

Am I missing something here?

Nope, you got that right... I mean. What did we really expect from this address. At least he didn't hit the nuclear options and announce the withdrawal of US troops from some certain European countries.

 

[NuclearID]

At least he didn't hit the nuclear options and announce the withdrawal of US troops from some certain European countries.

Even though I personally think he should...... I'm sure many are relieved he didn't. Or possibly suspected he might, possibly. But he didn't. So everyone can breath.... For now.

 

[teekay99]

So based on the address the US is basically finished it's goals and will be done very fast, but also needs massively escalating strikes on infrastructure and 2-3 more weeks, which would be 50-75% more time to achieve what is stated to be a very tiny amount of the mission.

Am I missing something here? It really started off sounding like a "we won and the war is over, we will be withdrawing in the coming days" was coming and then the hard left turn to a timeline that seems impossible to judge and further escalations in the hope that it will make it happen?

What a load of nothing, feels like standard issue base placating

It was a waste of time except for maybe the talking heads (oops I mean news analysts) on Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, etc. May the Talking Heads burn down the house...

I heard nothing new in the address really except for a claim that Iran was involved in the USS Cole attack, which I had never heard before. From what I've seen, such a connection is tenuous at best.

 

[NuclearID]

Nope, you got that right... I mean. What did we really expect from this address.

Want to make clear I very much support this war. Doesn't mean I support current leader. The war has been a long time coming and agree with it fully.

HOWEVER at the same time I can still hold those who wage said war responsible. Nor do I pledge anything to any leader just because their leading a war I know is well more than justified.

Only say this as to clarify this isn't party politics nor should it be dumbed down to party politics.

I am giving people a reasonable position the media and many make you believe you cannot...

You can support the war and at same time question those who wage it and disagree with those who wage it.

 

[Winnitude]

Want to make clear I very much support this war. Doesn't mean I support current leader. The war has been a long time coming and agree with it fully.

HOWEVER at the same time I can still hold those who wage said war responsible. Nor do I pledge anything to any leader just because their leading a war I know is well more than justified.

Only say this as to clarify this isn't party politics nor should it be dumbed down to party politics.

I am giving people a reasonable position the media and many make you believe you cannot.

You can support the war and at same time question those who wage it and disagree with those who wage it.

In a somewhat similar boat and not sure I like it. I didn't support this war, and I agree about said leader, but now at this point in this war, I have no choice but to root for the US to finish the job effectively and swiftly because the alternatives are all rat fucked for everyone. The Golden Path or whatever. It increasingly doesn't seem to be their intention for whatever reason though anyway.

( Though on second thought, I don't like the implication that Trump is Paul Atreides. /HJ)

(Leaving this here as a form of agreement that slightly broadens the parameters and not looking to invite argument or debate onto the thread)

 

[TSARBomba91]

Well that was a giant load of bollocks. He spent early half of it stroking his own ego.

How many times did he say Iran was decimated? (There not, not even close)

Telling the rest of the world the Strait of Hormuz is their problem is such a massive fuck you. I mean if it is so easy to take why do you do it right?

Iran is not going to stop their Nuclear weapons program without the total destruction of their IRGC and its political system and that can't be done be by bombing alone.

I am pretty sure at the beginning of the conflict he said they wanted Regime Change. You're not going to stop them from wanting Nukes you set them back but all you're doing is setting them back. Hell North Korea is way poorer and isolated than Iran and managed to restart their program and pull it off then so will Iran and probably even quicker and they will do this.

The Regime hasn't changed its still "death to America".