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UA-RU | Jan.-1st-2026/August 20th | Analysis

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alphaecho said:
Ukrainian forces struck Moscow on 18 June 2026, the second strike in three days targeting the Moscow Oil Refinery (MNPZ) in three days. The attack combined An-196 Liutyi deep-strike UAVs with RS1 Bars cruise missiles, the latter filmed in flight over Kotelniki on the city's southeastern edge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067532844008649218
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This has to be one of the craziest pieces of footage to come out of the war in Ukraine.
 
Arlinna said:
Under which NATO standard is expenditure on infrastructure (ports, airports) classified as defense spending?
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It’s part of the increase to 5% defense spending, 3.5 has to be direct military spending while the remaining 1.5 can be dual purpose infrastructure.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
'A week will be enough' — Zelensky issues ultimatum to Lukashenko over drone-guidance equipment.

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Maybe I’m just overthinking here, but I feel like this could be a potential escalation point: Ukraine attacks Belarus (which hasn’t happened before), Russia sees it as unprecedented, and goes nuclear since they interpret it as “aggression against Russia or Belarus by a non-nuclear state is considered a joint attack if that state is backed or supported by a nuclear-armed nation.”
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
Maybe I’m just overthinking here, but I feel like this could be a potential escalation point: Ukraine attacks Belarus (which hasn’t happened before), Russia sees it as unprecedented, and goes nuclear since they interpret it as “aggression against Russia or Belarus by a non-nuclear state is considered a joint attack if that state is backed or supported by a nuclear-armed nation.”
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I severely doubt there would be a nuclear response from Russia over this, it could be the straw that draws Belarus into the war though. It seems like a stupid move from Ukraine to potentially open up another front in exchange for the two towers though so we’ll see what happens. Especially when Ukraine’s troops are already spread thin, so now they’d have to tackle a potential run at Kyiv from Belarus. Maybe we’ll see a partisan attack on the tower or something, but unless Kyiv knows something we don’t about Belarus’ ability to join the conflict it seems more like tough talk.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
Might need to translate, but the rhetoric coming out of Russia is already hinting what I suggested

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MOSCOW, June 20. /TASS/. Vladimir Zelensky hopes in vain that his ultimatum to the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will have a positive effect on Kiev. On the contrary, threats to Minsk provoke Moscow to respond, said LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky.

"Zelensky's statements to Lukashenko are a dangerous performance aimed at the Western public, a provocation of escalation and expansion of the conflict zone <... >. Does the leader of the neo-Nazi regime understand that he opened Pandora's box?" Slutsky wrote in his

The LDPR leader reminded that, according to the updated nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation, Moscow considers threats to allied Minsk as an encroachment on its own security. "Zelensky and Co. really want to create a casus belli (translated from Latin as a reason for war - note. TASS) for the imminent response of the leading nuclear power?" Slutsky said.

In his opinion, Zelensky's actions against Belarus may lead to a prolongation of hostilities, a postponement of elections in Ukraine and, consequently, new financial support to Kiev. At the same time, for Western leaders, Minsk's involvement in the conflict is an opportunity to realize a long-standing desire to intervene in the sovereign affairs of Belarus.

Earlier, Zelensky made further threats against Belarus, saying that he was ready to give an order to attack the equipment, which, according to him, is located on Belarusian territory along the border with Ukraine, if it is not removed from there within a week.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
and goes nuclear since they interpret it as “aggression against Russia or Belarus by a non-nuclear state is considered a joint attack if that state is backed or supported by a nuclear-armed nation.”
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Bluster.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
By…..who? I mean, if you aren’t worried then I won’t worry, I’d just like a bit more clarification here
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Russia has been blustering about nuclear use since the war began. There is no question that there is a line in the sand for them, but this isn't it.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
By…..who? I mean, if you aren’t worried then I won’t worry, I’d just like a bit more clarification here
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They’re literally already bombing Russia 😂😂. They’re effectively stating if you bomb our ally, Russia will treat it as a declaration of war against us, even though we’re already at war with you.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Russia has been blustering about nuclear use since the war began. There is no question that there is a line in the sand for them, but this isn't it.
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Probably true. If they haven't gone nuclear after what Ukraine has been doing to Moscow, they won't do it over some communications towers.
 
Kyiv has unveiled its Trophy Lab, which basically gives governments and defense firms free access to captured Russian tech. It’s a treasure trove of Russian military secrets, which every country can now benefit from.
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I don't think this is really new. Both sides have been doing this since the beginning of the war and even long before that in other conflicts. Still interesting though. (y)
https://twitter.com/x/status/2068009231987429419
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Sidney Reilly said:
I hope you have a nice day too. Thank you for all your exhausting hard work keeping us in the know.
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Thank you. I never expect gratitude. But when it happens it really means a lot.

Hope everyone has been having a wonderful day with their fathers or a honorable memorial for those father's who are not with us today.

Happy or somber fathers day to all.
 
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DrMantisToboggan said:
"Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia," its intelligence said. "We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks."


Latvia warns Russia preparing drone, missile provocations in Baltics | Fox News

Latvian intelligence says Russia is preparing military provocations against Baltic states or Poland, including drones and missiles, to pressure NATO to stop supporting Ukraine.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
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I mean none of this is really new though, how many drones did they “accidentally” send into Poland in September? How many mystery explosions have there been in NATO factories? As long as the war in Ukraine continues there will be more hybrid attacks.
 
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