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šŸ—£ļø | UA-NATO/RU | Signs of Pre-Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

Snowfall said:
You know thereā€™s some days I really wish I could be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin, this legitimately seems like political suicide for Lukashenko though if itā€™s true.
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I am legitimately surprised at this development. I wonder if Putin simply told him it ainā€™t worth it. But youā€™re right though, I wish I could be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin.
 
Soā€¦..just a question for those with more insight into the current situation: given that Putin is being pressured, or perhaps more aptly cornered by Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia on oil refineries/manufacturing hubs, domestic unrest, the potential retaking of Crimea, and calls from hardliners to escalate; are we headed towards the possible use of nuclear weapons in the short to near term? How does this current bout of tension compare to say, September 2022, or August 2024?
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
Soā€¦..just a question for those with more insight into the current situation: given that Putin is being pressured, or perhaps more aptly cornered by Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia on oil refineries/manufacturing hubs, domestic unrest, the potential retaking of Crimea, and calls from hardliners to escalate; are we headed towards the possible use of nuclear weapons in the short to near term? How does this current bout of tension compare to say, September 2022, or August 2024?
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I donā€™t think itā€™s nearly as bad as September 2022. For one thereā€™s basically no measurable domestic unrest in Russia, nor is there really a risk of the people rallying in the streets. Second Ukraine has about as good of a shot of retaking Crimea as I do of waking up rich tomorrow. Putin still believes in a war of attrition time is on his side, and western intelligence believes he can carry on for a few more years, so my guess is heā€™ll continue to fight the way he has been with the belief that eventually the Ukrainian front line in the Donbas will collapse and then go from there. A potential mobilization is one thing I am actively watching for though as a sign the Kremlin thinks time is no longer on its side, and I donā€™t mean these bs rumors that pop up all the time I mean legitimate signals from the Kremlin.
 
NuclearID said:
Oh yea. Like I said. Finland already closed its border in most places with Russia the beginning of last month (June 4th). So. Naturally Russia is doing the same. Surprised it took them a month to respond in-kind though.

This definitely did not happen in a vacuum.
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I never realized how much railway freight was actually still being shipped from Russia to Finland and the Baltics. Iā€™m shocked this didnā€™t happen at the same time Finland closed the crossings to people.
 
Snowfall said:
I never realized how much railway freight was actually still being shipped from Russia to Finland and the Baltics. Iā€™m shocked this didnā€™t happen at the same time Finland closed the crossings to people.
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Maybe Russia couldn't afford to respond in-kind to Finnish closures last month. Russia likly depends deeply on trade with Finland. Perhaps Russia still can't materially afford to do so but cannot afford inaction or not responding to it without Putin looking weak to Kremlin Oligarchs or look weak to NATO.

Or maybe Russia needed time to figure out how it was going to replace trade with Finland before pulling the trigger. Either way. "Everyone who is anyone" knew it was coming.
 
NuclearID said:
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The UK Ministry of Defence says the UK, Italy, and Japan awarded a Ā£4.6 billion Global Combat Air Programme contract to Edgewing for the next stage of the sixth generation fighterā€™s design.

The aircraft is planned to enter service from 2035, with the UK Defence Investment Plan confirming Ā£8.6 billion for GCAP over four years.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2073087280508518755
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FYI edgewing is a joint British Italian Japanese aircraft venture.
 
DarkNoon said:
Maybe Russia couldn't afford to respond in-kind to Finnish closures last month. Russia likly depends deeply on trade with Finland. Perhaps Russia still can't materially afford to do so but cannot afford inaction or not responding to it without Putin looking weak to Kremlin Oligarchs or look weak to NATO.

Or maybe Russia needed time to figure out how it was going to replace trade with Finland before pulling the trigger. Either way. "Everyone who is anyone" knew it was coming.
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I believe most of the Russian military movements and base re-openings along the Finish and Baltics boarders is in response to previous NATO actions over the last year. New nato regiments in the Baltics. Finland joining NATO ect ect.

That it took this long for Russia to respond is the curiosity. Itā€™s also fair to say I think that most of these overt Russian military unit movements in the north are Potemkin villages.
For one it is a far stretch for Russian leadership to think NATO is going to launch an invasion anytime soon.
Two given the difficulty Russia has had at dispatching Ukraine and the tax it has imposed on their conventional military. The proposition that Russia is considering anything offensive along their northern boarder is not really plausible.

It does how ever indicate Russias intentions to not cede one more kilometer. Excluding whats going on in Ukraine. A red line you might say. Which might be helpful to remember. If in a year or two there are murmurings in the west about flipping Belarus.
With the TRIPP in Armenia/Azerbaijan and trade deals with Kazakhstan. Finland and Sweden joining NATO and Finland now considering being a forward staging base for nuclear weapons.

This proverbial imaginary/or not box around Russia is tighter than itā€™s been since pre-Soviet days. It is only their Nukes that give any pause to listen to their displeasures.

Letā€™s also not forget ROK and Japan and NATO actively forging closer military cooperation and defense technology development. One more side of that box

Contrary to what many here might consider as a negative. Consider the US posturing for a smaller presence in Europe/NATO. All while Western European nations scrambling to bolster their militaries and force projection as a good thing.

What we absolutely know after the Ukraine war. Russia does not have the conventional military capacity to launch any significant military operation against NATO. Their nukes are of course have and will continue to be a real and significant threat. But aside from assuming that if Russia did launch against a European capital or military base. Do we really think a war under these conditions is going to involve western battalions of armor storming across the boarder? It will be fought with ballistic missiles as AirPower for the critical fist 48 hours. And in that time it will besides if it escalates. Tanks and divisions of infantry will have little impact initially.

So Europe and other allies are modernizing their militaries. US is focusing attention on other spheres of influence SA Asian Malaka the gulf. And of course letā€™s not forget the struggle for influence in the central Asian corridor.

Itā€™s not an altogether undesirable strategic approach to the world now and the direction in which it was heading.
 
Snowfall said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2073082445335769191
The original version of the telegraph article this all stems from came out in Onet on June 30th, it is substantially less definitive then the one in the telegraph, which is interesting considering they are written by the same person, cite the same sources, and the telegraphā€™s parent company owns Onet. It appears the telegraph article is effectively a clickbait version of the original because the original did not generate much attention.
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Soā€¦.is this something to worry about or no? I feel Iā€™m having deja vu of 2022 when America was warning Ukraine that Russia would invade.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
Soā€¦.is this something to worry about or no? I feel Iā€™m having deja vu of 2022 when America was warning Ukraine that Russia would invade.
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So far (and things change rapidly) it appears to be either sensationalist headlines from a usual character OR very conveniently timed Polish sources released at a time when the USA has ALREADY reduced a significant amount of combat troops in Poland AND Trump was considering more cuts.

You pick. Its seems unlikely in the extreme that Russia would attack NATO.

Finally yes I agree with you as my first thought was this sounds like the Ukraine war. Of course after logical thinking returned to me it seemed quite evident that it was sensationalism. IMHO.

<ā€¦and, with my luck, Russia attacks tomorrow ā˜¹ļø >
 
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DrMantisToboggan said:
Soā€¦.is this something to worry about or no? I feel Iā€™m having deja vu of 2022 when America was warning Ukraine that Russia would invade.
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We have no idea what the U.S. actually told Poland in this situation. From the sounds of it, what was told was there was some discussion in the Kremlin but nothing concrete and itā€™s limited in how much discussion took place. We also donā€™t know the quality of the intelligence that was shared. As opposed to 2022 when the U.S. screamed, hey these guys are going to invade.
 
Torch said:
So far (and things change rapidly) it appears to be either sensationalist headlines from a usual character OR very conveniently timed Polish sources released at a time when the USA has ALREADY reduced a significant amount of combat troops in Poland AND Trump was considering more cuts.

You pick. Its seems unlikely in the extreme that Russia would attack NATO.

Finally yes I agree with you as my first thought was this sounds like the Ukraine war. Of course after logical thinking returned to me it seemed quite evident that it was sensationalism. IMHO.
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I have to admit upon reading the telegraph article I was unnerved, but after reading the original it became quite clear the telegraph one is sensationalist. Itā€™s definitely no coincidence this came out right before the NATO summit.
 
Snowfall said:
We have no idea what the U.S. actually told Poland in this situation. From the sounds of it, what was told was there was some discussion in the Kremlin but nothing concrete and itā€™s limited in how much discussion took place. We also donā€™t know the quality of the intelligence that was shared. As opposed to 2022 when the U.S. screamed, hey these guys are going to invade.
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Yes in 22 we had months of major buildup of troops and equipment along the boarder 150-180,000 compared to 20-30,000 along the entire Finland Baltic boarders.

Itā€™s not that doesnā€™t have some meaning but I donā€™t think itā€™s indicative of a pre-invasion buildup
 
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