🗣️ | UA-NATO/RU | Signs of Pre-Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[Snowfall]

Yes in 22 we had months of major buildup of troops and equipment along the boarder 150-180,000 compared to 20-30,000 along the entire Finland Baltic boarders.

It’s not that doesn’t have some meaning but I don’t think it’s indicative of a pre-invasion buildup

As far as I’m aware there isn’t even a buildup on the Finland Baltic border at this point, it’s a construction of installations that could house troops after the war in Ukraine. I think one important thing people always seem to miss when talking about a post-Ukraine war world is the massive DMZ that Russia is going to have to have troops on. If Russia ever made an attempt to invade the Baltics, you can bet damn well the Ukrainians would make a push to get every inch of territory the Russians were holding at the same time no matter whatever agreement is in place. So Russia will realistically need at least 500,000 troops in place to hold that line.

 

[Publius]

As far as I’m aware there isn’t even a buildup on the Finland Baltic border at this point, it’s a construction of installations that could house troops after the war in Ukraine. I think one important thing people always seem to miss when talking about a post-Ukraine war world is the massive DMZ that Russia is going to have to have troops on. If Russia ever made an attempt to invade the Baltics, you can bet damn well the Ukrainians would make a push to get every inch of territory the Russians were holding at the same time no matter whatever agreement is in place. So Russia will realistically need at least 500,000 troops in place to hold that line.

The Russian response adjoining the Baltics and Finland I think we agree are mostly infrastructure and check point / monitoring locations. I also think at this juncture it is Russia reacting to changes to NATO forces in the east. I don’t see what NATO has done as being overly provocative. To not expect this activity on both sides of the boarder given the last 31/2 years would not be realistic. NATOs build up is not pre-invasion nor is Russia’s.

 

[Snowfall]

The Russian response adjoining the Baltics and Finland I think we agree are mostly infrastructure and check point / monitoring locations. I also think at this juncture it is Russia reacting to changes to NATO forces in the east. I don’t see what NATO has done as being overly provocative. To not expect this activity on both sides of the boarder given the last 31/2 years would not be realistic. NATOs build up is not pre-invasion nor is Russia’s.

Yeah this has been basically my take as well, it’s surprising to see so many people act like the Russian buildup in the north is surprising when it’s exactly what they said they would do in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

 

[Publius]

Yeah this has been basically my take as well, it’s surprising to see so many people act like the Russian buildup in the north is surprising when it’s exactly what they said they would do in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

They have to do something and I suspect much of what they are doing is for show. At least at this point.

 

[Snowfall]

They have to do something and I suspect much of what they are doing is for show. At least at this point.

I would argue it’s entirely for show, they’ve also had to scale down their plans due to committing reserves to Ukraine. So any plans for the revitalized district are going to take even longer than originally planned.

 

[DarkNoon]

Contrary to what many here might consider as a negative. Consider the US posturing for a smaller presence in Europe/NATO. All while Western European nations scrambling to bolster their militaries and force projection as a good thing.

I have been pretty open about advocating for the U.S. to transplant itself from Europe to Asia. Europe should have no problem defending itself against a regional power (Russia), while we focus on more pressing matters which is the red dragon waking in the Pacific, threatening the very order we, our parents, and our grandfathers made during & after WWII.

And after Iran, I am definitely even more in favor of doubling down on leaving EU problems to EU nations, while again, we focus on things that truly matter, or... better put, more pressing matters at the moment in the Asian theater.

After Iran. It's not just the willingness of Europe to help us with China that came into question as well, but their very military capabilities too. But that's a different discussion.

Bottom line. We have bigger fish to fry then Russia. No excuses EU can't handle it with their combined efforts. Sorry, you may need to go without free healthcare, education, and for some say goodbye to that 4 day work week EU.

Okay. Here ends my valid point/rant.

 

[Snowfall]

I have been pretty open about advocating for the U.S. to transplant itself from Europe to Asia. Europe should have no problem defending itself against a regional power (Russia), while we focus on more pressing matters which is the red dragon waking in the Pacific, threatening the very order we, our parents, and our grandfathers made during & after WWII.

And after Iran, I am definitely even more in favor of doubling down on leaving EU problems to EU nations, while again, we focus on things that truly matter, or... better put, more pressing matters at the moment in the Asian theater.

After Iran. It's not just the willingness of Europe to help us with China that came into question as well, but their very military capabilities too. But that's a different discussion.

Bottom line. We have bigger fish to fry then Russia. No excuses EU can't handle it with their combined efforts. Sorry, you may need to go without free healthcare, education, and for some say goodbye to that 4 day work week EU.

Okay. Here ends my valid point/rant.

My big issue with the EU lately, is them acting like we haven’t been discussing the pivot to Asia for the past 16 years now. They make it seem like it came out of nowhere when it was first discussed during Obama’s first term.

 

[Publius]

My big issue with the EU lately, is them acting like we haven’t been discussing the pivot to Asia for the past 16 years now. They make it seem like it came out of nowhere when it was first discussed during Obama’s first term.

Remember Eisenhowers quote
Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower was the first NATO supreme veallied commander. Shortly after assuming that post, he wrote these words in February 1951:

“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.”

He actively believed that Europe should actively stand up their own defense evidently much sooner they did.

Given his warning about the military industrial complex it sheds light on what he was warning about.