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DEFCON 4 | Europe Crisis | December 2021

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I don't see any relation - current regime hates Stalin anyway. And Putin is tired of being compared to him. Russian civilians do that, because he is really weak before the slightest image of Stalin. And modern Russian movies sponsored by ministry of culture are criticising and dumping on that era as a whole.
 
this is going to get hot soon...............https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/referencing-infamous-soviet-no-retreat-order-russia-warns-west-to-concede-or-face-ukrainian-war
 
this is going to get hot soon...............https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/referencing-infamous-soviet-no-retreat-order-russia-warns-west-to-concede-or-face-ukrainian-war
So here's the question:

Is foreign minister Sergey Lavrov speaking for himself, or is he speaking for Putin in a backdoor manner? (Meaning that Putin doesn't want to be heard saying these things himself.)
 
Meanwhile Ukraine is busy with making their Volksturm civilian defence thing?
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recently russian talkers have slowed on threatening the west, if the russians roll into ukraine i think they will do so intending to avoid direct conflict with nato
 
That came really close. One of the few times I was actually nervous.

Given Russias sailing of their boomers and attack subs with the deployment of the city killing drone sub, we could be in a similar situation without NATO letting anyone know to not panic everyone and ratchet up the pressure of war. You can bet the Russian navy is all over the NATO warships ready to sink them if need be in this heightened state of alert.

Two subs is all they need to wipe out Europe.
 

excuse me, but I wonder why this kind of news is not enought to downgrade the Defcon Level to 5. To postpone the summit on 12 and 13 Jannuary it's like saying: "ok, ok, we are ready to war, the situation is very serious, but before, let's eat Christmas cake, uncork the champagne on New Year's Eve, celebrate the Befana on 6 Jannuary, then just a week of work in order to realize that holidays are actually over... and we are finally ready to discuss the situation as soon as possible!".
it seems pretty obvious to me that it is a sort of mummery between US and Russia and that at certain levels they have already been agreed on something completely unknown.
 
Given Russias sailing of their boomers and attack subs with the deployment of the city killing drone sub, we could be in a similar situation without NATO letting anyone know to not panic everyone and ratchet up the pressure of war. You can bet the Russian navy is all over the NATO warships ready to sink them if need be in this heightened state of alert.

Two subs is all they need to wipe out Europe.
This clearly fearmongering on a very gross scale. According to this https://russianforces.org/navy/ Russia has 11 SSBNs with 656 warheads. The US has 14 Tridents SSBNs with 24 Trident missiles each and 10 warheads on each missile makes 3360 warheads. Slighty more than Russia which nwever in history was the submarine danger silly movies like "Hunt for Red October" suggest. Furthermore Russia has 17 nuclear powered SSNs compared to 29 Los Angeles Class, 19 Virginia Class and 3 Seawolf Class boats, together 51 SSNs. Not to mention the four Ohio class converted SSGNs. Nowhere is the russian navy near apoint where she "is all over the NATO warships ready to sink them". Quite the opposite would be the case if the russian navy would ever venture to the high seas. Concerning the CSGs there are three of them floating and another three could be raised very quickly to deployment ready status. But nothing of this will happen.
 
some time in 2017 or so due to syria, i was scared shitless

Turkey shot down the Russian Frogfoot that strayed into their airspace by a half mile or so on accident and nearly got pounded by Russia. NATO would not have done anything about it because Turkey was flat ignorant for shooting it down over a slim part of their land that was ruled by Turkish led ISIS terrorist.

They were mad Russia bombed them so they shot it down. That was in the start of Russias deployment there to eliminate the ISIS terrorist backed by Turkey’s leader. It was Turkeys economic ties to Russia that saved them from being a fried Turkey. That and Russia didn’t like the idea of guessing if NATO would hit back or not with half of the Arab world joining in on the fight as well.
 

excuse me, but I wonder why this kind of news is not enought to downgrade the Defcon Level to 5. To postpone the summit on 12 and 13 Jannuary it's like saying: "ok, ok, we are ready to war, the situation is very serious, but before, let's eat Christmas cake, uncork the champagne on New Year's Eve, celebrate the Befana on 6 Jannuary, then just a week of work in order to realize that holidays are actually over... and we are finally ready to discuss the situation as soon as possible!".
it seems pretty obvious to me that it is a sort of mummery between US and Russia and that at certain levels they have already been agreed on something completely unknown.
Japan was holding talks with the US right up to the exact moment Pearl Harbor was attacked.

As long as Ukraine is surrounded by over 100,000 Russian troops sitting on their border, talk is cheap.
 
Remember how one of my supporting arguments about the US not getting involved militarily in Ukraine was that we didn't have a CSG in the Med to support such an operation?

 
There are much more hyperbole news...
With all the satellites in the world, you can see stuff, but you cannot see intention necessarily. And that’s the hard part. I would still say that a new offensive is not inevitable, but all the pieces are in place.

The U.S. has flown RC-135 and E-8 reconnaissance planes over Ukraine in recent days to monitor Russian military deployments in the region, according to flight-tracking data. The RC-135 gathers electronic intelligence, while the E-8 uses radar to track ground forces.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group to stay in the Mediterranean Sea region rather than move on to the Middle East, amid worries about the buildup of thousands of Russian troops near the Ukraine border.

“And it does not matter what kind – men, women or teenagers, the main thing is that they shoot from machine guns and other weapons almost in the direction of the enemy. In the case of mass shooting, the probability theory will work, and bullets containing shells will find the target.

Kyiv accuses Moscow of massing tens of thousands of troops near its borders in preparation for a possible offensive.

Ukraine Requires Women to Register for Military Conscription​

 
Open question out there.
I’ve been reading somethings recently reportedly from Russian officials about nato and the US placing or going to place, I assume them to mean, short or intermediate range missiles in Ukraine.
I have looked and been unable to see any reports of this. “Missiles” get used in headers sometimes but that’s always referring to Javelins.

So has anyone seen any reputable sources regarding Ukraine receiving any short or intermediate range missiles.
It’s unfortunate for Russia officials to take this tactic if I’m right. It’s blatantly hyperbolic and strongly diminishes their negotiating position except in some media and possibly at home.

I don’t want to see anyone die in this dust up. I’m ambivalent about Ukraine joining NATO. Short of in fact placing missiles, tank battalions, and aircraft in Ukraine there is no viable strategic advantage of Ukraine joining nato other than article 5 clause.

My recommendations to negotiations would be for Russia to offer staged return of the territories but with continued Russian involvement in them for security guarantees of the residents. Long term lease of the port at Sevastopol and guaranteed land and air access for Russia.
Immediate and staged roll back of all sanctions on Russian officials and citizens. Except those mutually agreed upon to be involved in human trafficking and sex trade.
Removal of iskanders from Belarus, status quo in Kaliningrad.
Open sky’s agreement over the boarder regions and Russian access to AGEIS ashore sites in Poland and Romania.

Ukraine has been fought over for centuries with the Germans, Austria/Hungarians, Lithuania, the Soviets, Russia, the Turks and just in general. It’s going to take time to dial it back and continue if possible towards a developed and secure Ukrainian identity and security.
Given some time and stability it could be one of the wealthiest and best places in Europe. But it’s always been the boarder lands. That needs to change.

My apologies, I got on a role with my question pertaining to reports and went on a discussion commentary.
 
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So has anyone seen any reputable sources regarding Ukraine receiving any short or intermediate range missiles.
Not from the US or NATO, no. And although I am not 100% positive, I don't think we could even if we wanted to since they are not a NATO nation state.

Not to mention, if this was true, and western IRBMs or SRBMs were stationed in Ukraine right now, Russia would have already moved *their* IRBMs and SRBMs much closer to Europe in response.

In my opinion, this is Putin's version of "WMDs in Iraq" to justify military action in Ukraine.
 
So has anyone seen any reputable sources regarding Ukraine receiving any short or intermediate range missiles.
Ukraine is capable of building them, I think MRBMs are getting stationed in NATO countries after a russian invasion of Ukraine.

Some of the Ukrainian missile inventory.

Short range ballistic missiles

cruise anti-ship missile

mobile short-range ballistic missile system

heavy multiple rocket launcher with guided ammunition
 
Remember how one of my supporting arguments about the US not getting involved militarily in Ukraine was that we didn't have a CSG in the Med to support such an operation?

id say this is to ensure no combat in nato borders, we already stated the consequences we intend to give out if the russians invade the ukraine and they are sanctions
 
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