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Diplomatic Frameworks Around Ukraine Peace Deal OR Ceasefire | Reports-(CLOSED)

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FOG OF WAR" - The war for survival in the era of predatory states has begun.

Could the window of opportunity for Russia be closing?

Monitoring the main and side trends in Russian military and political analysis, I have the following conclusions.
Russian comments from observers of these events today feel euphoric in connection with the conflict between Ukraine and the United States, President Zelensky's public attacks on President Tump and the general negotiation process between Washington and Moscow.

The Russians write that the conflict is coming to an end and Kiev will have to sign capitulation, so Russia has won.

Are you sure?
At the same time, regarding the European issue, there is a common opinion in the East that after the start of negotiations between Moscow and Washington, the weakness of the European Union (EU) has become quite obvious:

He will quote the Russian political scientist Vladimir Kireyev

"[...] The divergence of interests between the EU and the US has existed before. Macron said that NATO was brain dead in 2019. And this is not a new idea - De Gaulle, Francois Mitterrand, Willy Brandt, Gerhard Schröder at various times declared the need for Europe's strategic independence from the United States.

[...] Russia has tried to strengthen this independence in the past, before all these Ukrainian events, since 2014, relying on it. Today there is a possibility of an alliance between
 
Russia has tried to strengthen this independence in the past, before all these Ukrainian events, since 2014, relying on it. Today, the possibility of an alliance between Russia and the USA seems more and more likely. On the other hand, the EU has become a rather implacable opponent of Moscow.

More insightful Russians write that Moscow cannot forget about the role of Europe. They point out that despite European countries' declarations that their resources are running out, they still effectively support Ukraine.
This is the intended effect of Tump's negotiations.

Russia cannot afford a weak attitude towards China, which has sharply increased its influence on Moscow and its common neighbors over the last three years.

This was the purpose of the mission of Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, in the countries of Southeast and East Asia, but primarily in Beijing.

At the same time, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is traveling around the Middle East. He has already visited Iran and Qatar.

What's happening now?
Russian experts claim that we are dealing with shuttle diplomacy as part of the creation of a unified security system (alliance). Let me remind you that in fact we are returning to the Russian 2021 ultimatum (i.e. NATO should withdraw from Russia's borders) and we are negotiating details not only with the United States, but also with the main players.
 
Comment:

It may seem that the United States and Russia are getting closer and that things are steadily improving between the superpowers, but in reality we have a serious stalemate that is to the detriment of Moscow.

The war for the survival of Russia as we know it today has begun. It does not indicate whether this will be for better or for worse. The Russians' fears are growing, and they are running out of time.
Facts indicate that activities have begun between the Russian Federation and the United States to restore the full operation of diplomatic missions. Apparently, during the consultations in Turkey, the issue of resuming air transport between the countries was even raised, but not only...

Personally, I believe (my indicators point to this) that both sides are stubbornly ignoring the elephant in the room that could undermine all efforts made - they are playing at considerable risk.
 
Trump himself does not want to participate in the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, and this is a serious problem for Kiev and Europe, because Russia is against it. Moscow has said many times that any deployment of troops from NATO countries in Ukraine is unacceptable.

So what security guarantees can we talk about?

Russia is giving signals to the US that it can conclude huge energy and other agreements with it. But this may not happen without a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Kyiv, however, demands a "security guarantee".
more, the White House's willingness to conclude agreements with Moscow or Kiev is one thing and convincing American companies to invest in such an uncertain security environment is another thing.

I might add, theoretically guaranteed by weak Europeans...

Therefore, Russian expectations that the new partnership and new joint investment projects between the US and Russia will serve as the basis for a reset, which may be the basis for a "security guarantee", are also rather doubtful.

Rather, it is about redirecting Russian aggression in a different direction - China's. In my opinion, this may be the goal of the White House and a kind of "security guarantee
What the United States thinks about Russia-China relations was expressed quite honestly by Secretary of State Marco Rubio:

"[...] I don't know if we will ever be able to completely break Russia away from its relationship with China...

[...] If Russia becomes China's permanent junior partner in the long run, we will face a situation in which two nuclear powers unite against the United States.

And if this trend continues, even five or ten years from now, we could find ourselves in a situation where Russia, even if it wants to improve relations with the US, simply cannot do so because it has become completely dependent on China due to our cutting ties with them.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1895938613101129795
 
This is from my better half which she found on Facebook.

Michael McCune
Many of you probably watched what took place between Donald Trump and Zelenskyy tonight. Whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, you might be thinking to yourself, Oh my God, Donald Trump just screwed up.
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However, as a lifelong practitioner of martial arts, strategy, and philosophy, let me explain the difference between what you believe you witnessed and what actually happened.
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Donald Trump has been under constant political persecution since the beginning of his first term. Over time, he has learned to be patient and calculated.
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Tonight, Zelenskyy was invited to the Oval Office. However, both Trump and JD Vance knew exactly what Zelenskyy was going to do—he would use this opportunity, in front of the American people, to make a power play. Both Trump and Vance anticipated this.
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When Zelenskyy began appealing to the emotions of the American people, JD Vance stepped in, accusing him of disrespecting Donald Trump. This was brilliant strategy. It’s important to understand that Zelenskyy is trying to gain access to NATO.
Trump knew this but could not allow it to happen. If Ukraine joins NATO, the U.S. would be bound by NATO’s collective defense agreement—an attack on one is an attack on all.
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Now consider the larger implications: Ukraine and Russia despise each other. If Ukraine were to become a NATO member, any future skirmish between them would obligate the U.S. to enter into direct conflict with Russia. This would mean World War III. And if that happened, China would have to choose a side—they would almost certainly align with Russia.
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So what you witnessed tonight was a setup. Trump and JD Vance knew that the only way to achieve peace was to strategically align, at least on the surface, with Russia. Why? Because Russia would never sign a peace treaty if Ukraine were admitted into NATO.
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This is why Trump dismantled Zelenskyy’s argument. And when Zelenskyy, seeing his play failing, tried to backtrack and offer a treaty, Trump refused.
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Zelenskyy’s real intent was clear—he would not agree to peace unless security guarantees were in place. But what was he actually saying? That NATO must accept Ukraine. However, Russia would never agree to peace, knowing that NATO, their historical adversary, would surround them.
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Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump all knew this. Zelenskyy, thinking he had Democratic support, believed he could make this bold move on live television. But Trump and Vance saw right through it and outmaneuvered him.
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They knew that, in the short term, Democrats and the media would try to use this moment against them. But they also knew they had two years before midterms to prove their strategy was the right one. So they held their ground—brilliantly so.
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Now, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to back down and accept Trump's terms. But here’s the genius part—Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war.
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By negotiating a mineral deal, Trump ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.
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Trump played both sides like a master chess player. In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences.
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Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone.
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👀👂
⚡️Europe to Launch A Coalition "Of The Willing" to help Ukraine:

Alot of new info. 👆
 
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I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace.
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None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.
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We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same. Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal.
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We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.
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Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.
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Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1896948147085049916
 
Zelensky:
Today, I spoke with the President of Finland, the Prime Minister of the UK, the Prime Minister of Greece, the Prime Minister of Croatia, the NATO Secretary General, and the leader of Germany’s CDU party – whose party won the recent Bundestag elections. Clear support for Ukraine. Thank you.

There are very important updates from the European Commission regarding substantial funding for Europe’s defense. For us, this primarily means additional air defense – more systems, more missiles, additional capabilities to protect our cities and villages, our positions. All of this creates a solid additional foundation for our efforts to bring the war to an end.

We will continue consultations, and new joint steps will be taken. Ukraine deserves peace. Ukrainians deserve respect..
https://twitter.com/x/status/1897000790641844590
 
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