Discussions --Lead Up to Talks & US Military Intervention Against Iran Nuclear Facilities Threatened When Talks Fail

[Publius]

The US would have to be a in pretty bad position to use a nuke first, I think.

Just like Russia using a nuke in Ukraine. It will always be a difficult position for any nuclear power to resort to first strike.
For the US it would not just be international condemnation. The internal firestorm that would arise from any US leader resorting to a first strike would be unbelievable.

It would not be the passive debate like Truman’s decision. It’s a different age and almost any conceivable situation that could arise today.

 

[Publius]

I keep seeing from people (not here) it’s 50-50 whether a deal happens with Iran, but I just don’t see it. Iran isn’t about to dismantle a decades deep nuclear program, especially not under threat.

Their own officials are warning that negotiations are being sabotaged from within. Shamkhani just made it clear external pressure = zero cooperation. And Netanyahu’s in Trump’s ear daily, saying the talks are a smokescreen.

This doesn’t feel like a coin toss. It feels like a 15% shot at best at a deal and even that’s generous.

I read somewhere, maybe even here, (sorry lost the post) that there is a fairly significant power struggle in Iran currently.
Hardliners vs moderates, this in one way is reflected by some of the conflicting messages coming from Iran right now.
Talk vs time for talking is over we’re not backing down.

This is where the 50/50 proposition comes from regarding what Iran will do. I myself don’t have enough information to make a call either way.
They could fold, they could take the kinetic hit and claim victory because the ayatollah’s are still in charge. Or they could retaliate. In the Mideast a retaliatory hit could come a year from now and it would still be hailed as standing up to the great satan.
I’m sure those with better intelligence data or direct experience could make the call.

That said it is fairly safe to say if Iran does not make significant and material concessions. The US and Israel are going to hit Iran if negotiations fail.

Iran almost always folds at the last minute. But with the stakes so high I’m not sure they will this time.

 

[Spyglass]

Talk vs time for talking is over we’re not backing down.

This is where the 50/50 proposition comes from regarding what Iran will do.

I’m sure those with better intelligence data or direct experience could make the call.



Iran almost always folds at the last minute. But with the stakes so high I’m not sure they will this time.

Occam’s Razor. Iran is stalling. They need insurance. The US can absorb, spin, and handle the international implications of one Iranian nuke detonating overseas, depending on the severity of the incident. But multiple? Iran knows this. They are stalling in order to build a couple more. Maybe even stick one on a missile.

Of course I don’t have direct intel, but I don’t see more than a handful of “Off-Ramps” from this chess board, and that number is shrinking. This may only go one way. I am afraid.

It’s time to get this done, Mr. President. No quarter.

Whilst doing so, Law enforcement should be getting paid overtime and over-staffing to mitigate sleeper cell attacks over in the States.

 

[Sentry]

Question: Is the DEFCON level only for CONUS? Even if Iran has just a single bomb and it detonates it, would that warrant a DEFCON 1 situation since technically that is nuclear war? & would the DEFCON level be considered different for people in Israel and Iran?

 

[Deleted account]

Question: Is the DEFCON level only for CONUS? Even if Iran has just a single bomb and it detonates it, would that warrant a DEFCON 1 situation since technically that is nuclear war? & would the DEFCON level be considered different for people in Israel and Iran?

It's not just for CONUS.

 

[NuclearID]

For those wondering about the radio silence from me on other world theater threads, yes, it’s intentional.

I’ve fully detached from broad-spectrum monitoring and narrowed my filters, feeds, and attention specifically only to the Iran nuclear crisis. I’ve been ignoring Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Ukraine, and everything outside the U.S. Iran theater. Aside from Taiwan, which I’m still keeping the eyes on the back of my head on.

Normally, during peacetime, I’d be dumping everything from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. If it was relevant, I posted it. But we’re not in peacetime.

It’s been two weeks of singular focus for me and my reporting because this is the one crisis with the potential to go global.

Just wanted to state that plainly. Thanks for your time and apologies for the lapse in coverage of other world theaters. Until nuclear crisis either goes hot or cold, it will continue on as so.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch

 

[NuclearID]

Normally, during peacetime, I’d be dumping everything from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. If it was relevant, I posted it. But we’re not in peacetime. It’s been two weeks of singular focus for me and my reporting because this is the one crisis with the potential to go global.

Not to contradict any past or future staff assessment. But this is not normal peacetime I feel by every definition. Not when there is an unprecedented amount of fire power centered in one world theater which entirly evolves around a nuclear weapons program and entanglement of several nuclear states such as Israel & US.

Not to mention this region, is one that the entire world depends on for global stability. The possibilities on where it could all go after a initial strike on Iran is anyone's guess. Or... the possibility however small Iran already has a nuclear bomb or two. Now circle back to first paragraph.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Question: Is the DEFCON level only for CONUS?

It used to be. Several years ago, we changed our focus so that the DEFCON level now represents the threat of nuclear war anywhere in the world. If India and Pakistan were to go at it, that would reflect in the DEFCON level.

 

[NuclearID]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910719434945130500

Could conveniently also be preparation for any Iranian retaliation once the talks inevitably fail. Two birds, one stone. Not saying there isn’t a legitimate threat during such a holiday for Israel from terrorism, but this alert could also be used at the same time to quietly mask readiness for the expected retaliation from Iran when the U.S. and Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

 

[NuclearID]

Could conveniently also be preparation for any Iranian retaliation once the talks inevitably fail. Two birds, one stone. Not saying there isn’t a legitimate threat during such a holiday for Israel from terrorism, but this alert could also be used at the same time to quietly mask readiness for the expected retaliation from Iran when the U.S. and Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

To further argue my point…

A holiday alert right before a very likely diplomatic failure?

Full IDF readiness on all fronts, not just Gaza or the north?

It’s a textbook setup to normalize mobilization so it doesn’t raise alarms when things kick off.

Dual purpose readiness is classic Israeli doctrine. The IDF often uses heightened alerts around holidays not only to deter attacks, but also to camouflage broader military posture adjustments. It lets them quietly spin up for larger contingencies without setting off alarm bells.

 

[Peter Griffin]

You know, we've had our fair share of disagreements in the west, But hell if this is not some biblical retribution that has been coming down on Iran these past couple of years. The taliban on their border, Presidents dying, Puppet state of Syria fully defeated, Hezbollah fucking destroyed, and their influence waning in Iraq. And now the culmination of all that which will be decided today. I should bake a cake.

 

[NuclearID]

I should bake a cake.

Bahahahahahahaha! Hilarious. I was thinking of getting a nice bottle of scotch today to celebrate when Iran’s nuclear facilities are finally “eradicated.” Seriously.

That said, this bit of wisecracking shouldn’t overshadow the true gravity of the situation.

Let’s not forget just how deadly real this could get for everyone, everywhere, and how fast it could escalate if Iran chooses its next moves poorly after a U.S./Israel strike.

 

[Torch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910709211539095969

We are reduced to passing notes like children. Well children with nuclear weapons, stealth bombers and suicide bombers.

 

[teekay99]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910745574636159475

Direct as in:
Directly passing notes across a table?
Directly speaking...face to face?

Direct as in "to the point" or not "beating around the bush" through whatever communication medium they ultimately settle on. Is ESP an option?

 

[Torch]

The problem is simple and known. We are threatening to bomb the crud out of Persia unless they renounce Atomic weapons and the research of them in thought and deed. They don’t believe us, that’s the issue.

 

[GBS61]

The problem is simple and known. We are threatening to bomb the crud out of Persia unless they renounce Atomic weapons and the research of them in thought and deed. They don’t believe us, that’s the issue.

Ah! They believe you, it's likely that Iran has hidden cards up its sleeve. It's dangerous to underestimate your opponents.

 

[Spyglass]

We should fire a warning shot. Just detonate a nice little MOAB in the middle of literally nowhere, kill a few scorpions and cacti, and whip out our USA sized junk, slap it on the table, show Iran the “girth” of our attack plan.

Either make them back down or get this done.

 

[Spyglass]

The problem is simple and known. We are threatening to bomb the crud out of Persia unless they renounce Atomic weapons and the research of them in thought and deed. They don’t believe us, that’s the issue.

I agree with the guy that replied to you. Iran absolutely knows and believes in totality that we will turn the entire country to molten glass if necessary.

The problem is, they have things set up behind the scenes that we may or may not know about. Think, dead-man’s switches, sleeper cells, spies, all being activated. Maybe one of those dead-man’s switches is a computer virus…maybe even something simpler, like a bomb. I’d be willing to bet a sum of money that they took out a few insurance policies through the years.

Iran knows something we don’t.

That, or we do know it and that’s why we haven’t hit them yet. There’s more than enough assets in theater to do this right now if the order was given.

 

[Publius]

Ah! They believe you, it's likely that Iran has hidden cards up its sleeve. It's dangerous to underestimate your opponents.

While I agree you’re possibly correct about Iran having some hidden cards.
Irrespective of if they do or not.
What is the estimate that Iran might use them in the future given their past rhetoric. I think it’s a sold 60/40 chance they do. Iran unlike DPRK has a foreign network of connections that could possibly use one of those cards and attempt to maintain deniability.

Torch laid out the options pretty clearly, the choice of which to choose is this. Does the US Israel and other gulf states want to continue this dance with Iran or radically change the situation.
Iran doesn’t care about Israel or the Palestinians. They care about making sure they have a foreign adversary to blame for their failures domestically.

It might be Trump is willing to change the music Iran has been making that region dance to the last 40 years.

 

[Torch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910745574636159475

Direct as in:
Directly passing notes across a table?
Directly speaking...face to face?

We did that with the North Koreans and their Chicom master shine at Panmunjom (afaik) apparently it’s an
Axis of Evil thing.