In-depth analysis:
Whether its Ebola, Zika, bird flu, SARS, or MERS, it seems that every year a new lethal disease comes out and shakes up the status quo. The story in the media is evolving faster than the pathogen. Be that as it may, the greatest danger from pandemics comes from public panic and government responses, not the disease itself.
Every new disease whether its global or local has the potential to inflict geopolitical consequences. The severity of the out break depends on factors such as how the virus transmits, how lethal it is, and how integrated the country of origin is with the rest of the international community. Since public health is part of national security an outbreak not only results in the loss of life but also disrupts politics, trade, production, and in some cases even ongoing conflicts.
Although it is impossible to forecast the next outbreak or even where it will strike, some areas are at higher risk than others. Climate, demographics, and sanitation etc. can each increase the odd of an outbreak for a specific region. For example, in Asia pacific the rate of urbanization and population density is growing strong and more people are traveling further, faster, and more often than ever before. At the same time the degradation of soil and desertification which again is true for Asia allows infectious disease of tropical origin to spread far and wide.
Asia is also home to 60 percent of the worlds diabetes populous and it’s the fastest aging continent. Why and emphasis on diabetes and old age, well because they compromise the immune system, making people more susceptible to diseases. So rapid urbanization and environmental degradation, and weaken immune systems make Asia pacific ground zero for outbreaks. Once an outbreak occurs a different set of rules determines how it might subsequently spread and effects. For instance, the properties of the strain, how fast it transmits from host to host shows, as well how lethal it is all decide impact of the disease.
In nearly all cases a virus tends be either deadly or communicable, only a rare exception does a virus have both properties. This somewhat limits the capacity to do damage. Other factors effect infectious patterns like trade, migration, and transportation. These influence how quickly pathogens can spread beyond the county of its origins.
But perhaps greatest danger of a new virus comes from public panic and government responses, not the strain itself. You see when public panics politicians get involve who than start relocating funds from other infectious diseases like Malaria, TB, and Hepatitis B to combat new hyped up virus. TB for instance killed more than 1.5 million people in 2018 but since that doesn’t make the news politicians could move funds to fight the new virus. The decision sets the public at ease and earns law makers some politic points but can also result more TB related deaths than a new virus can muster. Point and case the action of governments is dangerous as pandemics or epidemics if not even more.
In the case of Covid-2019 it is hitting china at particular bad time. With protest in Hong Kong, internment camps, economic slowdown, and trade disputes the last thing Beijing leadership needs is an outbreak of infectious virus at a time million of its citizens planned to travel across the country to celebrate traditional festivities. Furthermore, considering that the city Wuhan sit at the cross road of China coastal area the government decision to lock down the city will result in economic disruptions much like SARS and MERS* outbreaks in the past. But there are reasons to believe that the new Wuhan Covid-2019 will be economically more disruptive than previous out breaks.
Covid-2019 is a different strain than SARS and MERS* but if the new disease is anything like the previous ones the damage will be limited over the long term. The average death rate of the Covid-2019 stands somewhere between 2 and 4 percent. Versus 9% for SARS and 34% for MERS*. Though it should be noted that the death rate for elderly jumps to 50% percent as well the case MERS*. But the thing that truly sets the Covid-2019 apart from other Corona virus diseases is the ease of human to human transmission and it lengthy incubation period.
This makes preparing, detecting, tracking, monitoring, and an effective containment strategy substantially more difficult. For perspective it took about 270 days for SARS to be controlled. By the end of the epidemic resulted in 40 billion dollars lost GDP for China. While the global ran at 100 billion dollars. If the Covid-2019 spread as wildly as SARS its damage will be more profound.
Much of east and south east Asia rely on Chinese tourist to stimulate economic growth. Thailand is/will get hit especial bad since 5% of its GDP growth comes from Chinese tourists. Japan could lose up to 25 Billion Dollars as the new virus will overshadow the 2020 summer Olympics.
For China the stakes even higher. The authorities have suspended road, air, water way, and railway transit in and out of Wuhan and 15 other cities. This will have profound consequences. Wuhan is a major domestic transportation hub, as well as the center of manufacturing, heavy industry, and scientific research. The closure of the City will disrupt traffic, trade, and maritime shipment though Yang Sea River.
In turn this will affect economic well being in port cities such as Shanghai. Like MERS and SARS it is expected that in infections for Covid-2019 will decree by spring and eventually fade away in the summer. If this goes accordingly the Beijing government could lift its restriction by the end of March.
How ever the trouble is roughly 5 million people left Wuhan city before the quarantine began. That means tens of thousands of people could be spreading the disease around the world right now. But we can’t be certain due to the long incubation period of the virus. If the later scenario is true the number of international infections will rise dramatically.
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Edit: Spelling mistakes, grammar.