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Kalingrad-Lithuania | 2022

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have we heard rhetoric like this in situations that did not end in military action? I will note none of the russians have specifically mentioned "military technical" but have implied pretty heavily very bad things, I know it would be stupid for them to do anything like that but how sure are we that they are not stupid? I know they would get 'blown out of the water' if they tried anything but if gives little comfort knowing the same would happen to me, my family, everything I know and love, etc.
 
this seems to me to likely be one of if not the single most dangerous point in the history of the 21st century, maybe I start the journey to mexico today, I wonder what if anything the US has intelligence wise regarding this situation, if it is possible that we know the russians will not do something and that is why we act this way, I do not know. RIA says putin meets with security council today, do not know how planned in advance this was. this seems to me and every nerve on my body to be a moment of extreme international danger the likes of which almost all of us have not experienced knowingly in our lifetimes
 
dave II judgement day said:
this seems to me to likely be one of if not the single most dangerous point in the history of the 21st century, maybe I start the journey to mexico today, I wonder what if anything the US has intelligence wise regarding this situation, if it is possible that we know the russians will not do something and that is why we act this way, I do not know. RIA says putin meets with security council today, do not know how planned in advance this was. this seems to me and every nerve on my body to be a moment of extreme international danger the likes of which almost all of us have not experienced knowingly in our lifetimes
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Furthermore, it seems that western Russian military district has been in some way mobilized: untill now it was not used. As I said, I don't think that Russia is going to attack, but, as I also said, we are almost close to that and I suppose that Russian military is entering the idea. UE - that's an istitution that I have alway deeply hated, on the contrary compared to NATO - says something ridiculous: "we are not making a blockade on Kaliningrad, we are only implementing the sanctions". Tipical of UE: "it's only a matter of burocraticy". But, what's the diffrence between: "embargo or blockade", and "implementation of external sactions that avoid Russia to make its own goods to reach its own territory"?
 
Well Russia could leave Ukraine, its an option to prevent ww3 - neither side is ready or really wants a full scale war, this is just a bump on that road..
 
bartok said:
Furthermore, it seems that western Russian military district has been in some way mobilized: untill now it was not used.
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Uh, what? 🤔 Both 1GTA and 20CAA are fully committed to the invasion. Also the VDV units, which got badly mauled trying to take Kyiv back in February. Even 6CAA is involved (mostly in the Kharkiv direction). Pretty much the only major WMD formations *not* currently in the fray are the Baltic Fleet, 11AC (i.e. the Kaliningrad garrison) and the Belarusian forces (which, for all intents and purposes, should now be regarded as Russia's "Belarusian Military District").
 
Socom7 said:
Uh, what? 🤔 Both 1GTA and 20CAA are fully committed to the invasion. Also the VDV units, which got badly mauled trying to take Kyiv back in February. Even 6CAA is involved (mostly in the Kharkiv direction). Pretty much the only major WMD formations *not* currently in the fray are the Baltic Fleet, 11AC (i.e. the Kaliningrad garrison) and the Belarusian forces (which, for all intents and purposes, should now be regarded as Russia's "Belarusian Military District").
Click to expand...

I don't know what " 1GTA, 20CAA e VDV" are. I follow some geopolitic channels that explain very closely the evolutions on the battlefield, with maps and much more. Yesterday, I read that western military district has been mobilized and it that untill now, it doesn't have partecipate to the operations. I don't know if it's a real mobilization, or a kind of higher alarm level. The units you have noticed maybe they don't are on the western military district organic.
 
bartok said:
I don't know what " 1GTA, 20CAA e VDV" are. I follow some geopolitic channels that explain very closely the evolutions on the battlefield, with maps and much more. Yesterday, I read that western military district has been mobilized and it that untill now, it doesn't have partecipate to the operations. I don't know if it's a real mobilization, or a kind of higher alarm level. The units you have noticed maybe they don't are on the western military district organic.
Click to expand...
OK, I'll try a different take. Wars are mostly about logistics, not actual combat. This is especially true of wars fought across vast territories, and the RU/UA war is certainly one such. Putin can't just snap his fingers to "mobilize" this or that army and launch an attack on the Baltics at a moment's notice. Such wars take years - perhaps decades - to prepare. The overt Russian buildup on the UA border had gone on for at least half a year, and preparatory activities can easily be traced back all the way to 2014. Any conventional invasion of the Baltics could be expected to take at least as long, even assuming Putin could conjure up sufficient forces to attempt it (hint: he can't, at least not in the short or medium term).

I don't think Putin's plans for a war with NATO involve any conventional ground operations such as those currently underway in UA. Putin just about admitted it himself - at the press conference following the infamous "long table" negotiations with Macron in the days immediately preceding the war. IIRC he said that he understands NATO has overwhelming conventional superiority, but if war breaks out, "you won't even have enough time to invoke your precious Article 5" - or something to the effect. So yep; standoff attacks with nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons.

(Edit: typo)
 
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bartok said:
Furthermore, it seems that western Russian military district has been in some way mobilized: untill now it was not used. As I said, I don't think that Russia is going to attack, but, as I also said, we are almost close to that and I suppose that Russian military is entering the idea. UE - that's an istitution that I have alway deeply hated, on the contrary compared to NATO - says something ridiculous: "we are not making a blockade on Kaliningrad, we are only implementing the sanctions". Tipical of UE: "it's only a matter of burocraticy". But, what's the diffrence between: "embargo or blockade", and "implementation of external sactions that avoid Russia to make its own goods to reach its own territory"?
Click to expand...
blockade

blŏ-kād′

noun​

  1. The isolation of a nation, area, city, or harbor by hostile ships or forces in order to prevent the entrance and exit of traffic and commerce.
  2. The forces used to effect this isolation.
  3. The shutting up of a place, particularly a port, harbor, or line of coast, by hostile ships or troops, so as to stop all ingress or egress, and to hinder the entrance of supplies of provisions, ammunition
How about the difference between a military force impeding the movement of all people and goods into or out of a designated territory or port.
Verses the probation of certain products from moving thru your own territory to another’s.
This is not the lining up of navel vessels and forcibly preventing another nation from accessing international waters.
This is one nation preventing another from having access to their territory to move particular goods thru it.

Yes the difference there can be dismissed with an off hand wave of the hand as being inconsequential.
But there is a difference and to dismiss it so sloppily is inaccurate and diminishes the strength of the argument being made that there is little difference between blockaid and embargo of certain goods.
NATO nor the EU nor Lithuania is stopping Russia from moving goods to other parts of their nation.
They are simply saying certain good you which to transport may not pass through their sovereign territory. Russia is free to move those goods through international waters.
And we are here because Russia has grossly violated international norms by invading a neighboring nation to which NATO objects and is responding to in what in other times would be considered a restrained manner.
 
Obreid said:
NATO nor the EU nor Lithuania is stopping Russia from moving goods to other parts of their nation.
They are simply saying certain good you which to transport may not pass through their sovereign territory. Russia is free to move those goods through international waters.
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You're absolutely correct. But arguing over definitions and fine print strikes me as barking up the wrong tree. The whole affair smells of a pretext for Russia to manufacture a geopolitical crisis which they had intended to create all along. It's just too flimsy to serve as a credible casus belli, and under normal conditions would probably be fairly easy to resolve via diplomatic channels.

As to whether this paroxysm of indignation is part of some nefarious scheme or just a byproduct of Russia's wrecking-ball approach to diplomacy, your guess is as good as mine. We'll find out soon enough.
 
Scholz kämpferisch: „Wir werden jeden Quadratmeter unseres Bündnisgebietes verteidigen“
15.18 Uhr: „In dieser schweren Zeit übernimmt Deutschland Verantwortung, für uns selbst und unsere Alliierten", sagt Scholz und verspricht auch, die Präsenz von Kräften im Ostseeraums auszuweiten. Auch die Ukraine wolle man bei der Sicherung ihres Luftraums unterstützen. „Wir werden jeden Quadratmeter unseres Bündnisgebietes verteidigen.“

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutsc...den-fragen-der-abgeordneten_id_107982357.html

Scholz combative: "We will defend every square meter of our alliance" "

3:18 p.m.: "In this difficult time, Germany takes responsibility for ourselves and our Allies," says Scholz, and also promises to expand the presence of forces in the Baltic Sea area. Ukraine is also wanted to support in securing its air. "We will everyone Defend the square meters of our alliance area. "
GOOGLE TRANSLATER
 
A link to head of state duma committee on international affairs discussion on countermeasures- note that they are saying they likely will hold off on barring Lithuanian transit through Russia for later, very weak response compared to the talk, especially since the Lithuanians just went out and said that they dont mind being cut off from the electricity ring, maybe there are other measures of more serious nature from "other departments" but here this is not of much impact , feel silly for being so worked up, unless more measures are on the way and the russians are insane, we will see. if it is just this though then not much to worry over. https://www-interfax-ru.translate.g...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
 
Socom7 said:
OK, I'll try a different take. Wars are mostly about logistics, not actual combat. This is especially true of wars fought across vast territories, and the RU/UA war is certainly one such. Putin can't just snap his fingers to "mobilize" this or that army and launch an attack on the Baltics at a moment's notice. Such wars take years - perhaps decades - to prepare. The overt Russian buildup on the UA border had gone on for at least half a year, and preparatory activities can easily be traced back all the way to 2014. Any conventional invasion of the Baltics could be expected to take at least as long, even assuming Putin could conjure up sufficient forces to attempt it (hint: he can't, at least not in the short or medium term).

I don't think Putin's plans for a war with NATO involve any conventional ground operations such as those currently underway in UA. Putin just about admitted it himself - at the press conference following the infamous "long table" negotiations with Macron in the days immediately preceding the war. IIRC he said that he understands NATO has overwhelming conventional superiority, but if war breaks out, "you won't even have enough time to invoke your precious Article 5" - or something to the effect. So yep; standoff attacks with nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons.

(Edit: typo)
Click to expand...

what I have to say... Russia is doing something with its western military district that is related on what is happening about Kaliningrad. Then... I don't know. What you have said is about other consideration.

Obreid said:
blockade

blo-kad'

noun​

  1. The isolation of a nation, area, city, or harbor by hostile ships or forces in order to prevent the entrance and exit of traffic and commerce.
  2. The forces used to effect this isolation.
  3. The shutting up of a place, particularly a port, harbor, or line of coast, by hostile ships or troops, so as to stop all ingress or egress, and to hinder the entrance of supplies of provisions, ammunition
How about the difference between a military force impeding the movement of all people and goods into or out of a designated territory or port.
Verses the probation of certain products from moving thru your own territory to another’s.
This is not the lining up of navel vessels and forcibly preventing another nation from accessing international waters.
This is one nation preventing another from having access to their territory to move particular goods thru it.

Yes the difference there can be dismissed with an off hand wave of the hand as being inconsequential.
But there is a difference and to dismiss it so sloppily is inaccurate and diminishes the strength of the argument being made that there is little difference between blockaid and embargo of certain goods.
NATO nor the EU nor Lithuania is stopping Russia from moving goods to other parts of their nation.
They are simply saying certain good you which to transport may not pass through their sovereign territory. Russia is free to move those goods through international waters.
And we are here because Russia has grossly violated international norms by invading a neighboring nation to which NATO objects and is responding to in what in other times would be considered a restrained manner.
Click to expand...

The difference you are talking about, it's just the reason that explains and allows to do something that is actually serious, telling ourselves that it isn't. Following what you say, you claim that a blockade is implemented by military force: it's true. You say that is not the case: it's absolutly correct. But think about that: when military force is used to impose a blockade? When someone try to force the block: it seems obvious, but it is important. If no one try to force the block, the block is only a "probation". so, what's the difference between the use of the force in order to make a blockade and "the probation of certain products from moving thru your own territory to another’s."? The difference is this: in the first case, someone tries to force the "probation", in the second, someone accepts the "probation". What about if Russia doesn't accept the "probation"? Does Lithuania say: "ah... ok, no problem! Go ahead"? So, the difference is only sophistical. For sure, the mouvements are allowed by the sea: if not, the war would be sure. But you see how close we are? this is the only thing that separate us from a war. nonetheless there were agreements between Russia and Baltic States and the move is very hostile and inopportune in a phase in which it would be better to thow water of the fire, not gazoline.
 
An interesting tidbit is that Patrushev, during his yesterday's visit to Kaliningrad, is said to have delivered a speech in which he accused various Western countries of assorted misdeeds without explaining what any of that has to do with the ongoing spat with Lithuania. Off the record his aides suggested that the visit had been prepared in advance, in which case it is possible that so was his speech, and that he had failed to update it to account for emerging issues. This, along with the fact that the Kremlin has since entered a holding pattern, of sorts, citing the need to "discuss retaliatory measures", might suggest that they were genuinely surprised by Lithuania's decision. Which would be surprising in itself.

Btw., TASS has just reported that a power grid test is scheduled in Kaliningrad for 25 June, where the district will temporarily isolate itself from external connections.
 
Socom7 said:
An interesting tidbit is that Patrushev, during his yesterday's visit to Kaliningrad, is said to have delivered a speech in which he accused various Western countries of assorted misdeeds without explaining what any of that has to do with the ongoing spat with Lithuania. Off the record his aides suggested that the visit had been prepared in advance, in which case it is possible that so was his speech, and that he had failed to update it to account for emerging issues. This, along with the fact that the Kremlin has since entered a holding pattern, of sorts, citing the need to "discuss retaliatory measures", might suggest that they were genuinely surprised by Lithuania's decision. Which would be surprising in itself.

Btw., TASS has just reported that a power grid test is scheduled in Kaliningrad for 25 June, where the district will temporarily isolate itself from external connections.
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I will note that almost every time Patrushev speaks he gives nearly that exact spiel as a preface to what he is saying
 
bartok said:
what I have to say... Russia is doing something with its western military district that is related on what is happening about Kaliningrad. Then... I don't know. What you have said is about other consideration.



The difference you are talking about, it's just the reason that explains and allows to do something that is actually serious, telling ourselves that it isn't. Following what you say, you claim that a blockade is implemented by military force: it's true. You say that is not the case: it's absolutly correct. But think about that: when military force is used to impose a blockade? When someone try to force the block: it seems obvious, but it is important. If no one try to force the block, the block is only a "probation". so, what's the difference between the use of the force in order to make a blockade and "the probation of certain products from moving thru your own territory to another’s."? The difference is this: in the first case, someone tries to force the "probation", in the second, someone accepts the "probation". What about if Russia doesn't accept the "probation"? Does Lithuania say: "ah... ok, no problem! Go ahead"? So, the difference is only sophistical. For sure, the mouvements are allowed by the sea: if not the war would be sure. But you see how close we are? this is the only thing that separate us from a war. nonetheless there were agreements between Russia and Baltic States and the move is very hostile and inopportune in a phase in which it would be better to thow water of the fire, not gazoline.
Click to expand...
Of course we’re close to war. And there is a solution.
The only problem here is Russia’s actions have provoked a response they didn’t anticipate nor like.
This conflict and threat can be over very quickly, Russia can withdraw and sue for peace
 
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Silent said:
Ukraine is also wanted to support in securing its air. "We will everyone Defend the square meters of our alliance area. "
GOOGLE TRANSLATER
Click to expand...
And there it is, the turning tide of nato air support for Ukraine making its way into NATO’s consideration and public discourse.
 
Obreid said:
And there it is, the turning tide of nato air support for Ukraine making its way into NATO’s consideration and public discourse.
Click to expand...
From Scholz? Doubt it. He's likely referring to deliveries of MANPADs and S300s, which are already a thing, and have been for some time.
 
I'd be more concerned by the "every square meter" rhetoric that's already reemerged in two places today - first from Ned Price (though that was in response to a question), and now from Scholz himself, in an umprompted manner, which did cause me to raise an eyebrow slightly.
 
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