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Kazakhstan

BREAKING: The Almata airport captured by the crowd.

"Uncoordinated crowd" tries to take over the 2nd biggest city in Kazakhstan. The city hall, airport, police stations. Classics.
 
Glorious last stand of a certain police station that's been for a few hours, now goes hot:
Police officers from the roof of one of the ROVD in Almaty are firing at protesters who are storming the police building.

Lethal weapons are already openly used by both sides of the conflict.
 
There are no public leaders inside the crowd (except "social network leaders"). But the crowd get coordinated. As you already noticed, there are people who take our CCTV cameras at public places. There are people who makes camps, delivers the food, portable toilets. There are groups who surround the police and the soldiers. This cannot be done by unorganized crowd. These are not more just protests. This is a coup attempt.
We must see the markings of this actions. I help: arab springs, Maydan. Kirgizistan reinforced its border.

1 "Accidentally" is a painful point for both Russians and China. 1 / A. Russian minority, important partnership (missile programs, etc. but this is better known to boxers and retirees), etc. 1 / B. On the eastern borders of China, a contiguous zone with an unstable Muslim population borders Xichiang, at least fully armed and in special terrain. It’s worth looking at the map, if the party starts in this area, China will have a meaningful land exit almost to the north. If they don’t march in for good, you can suck them down from a minimum infrastructural side. If they get involved even better: 1. they take resources away from other strategic directions 2. they can cause losses.
 
It's concerning due to Kazakhstan's size and geographical location. As someone else pointed out, it borders both China and Russia. It's a huge concern for Russia because they are extremely invested in Ukraine at the moment and do not need this instability on their south border distracting them. China has similar concerns, but to a lesser extent. I'm not convinced the US had anything to do with this yet, but it would not surprise me if that eventually turned out to be the case.

Kazakhstan is old-school Soviet, which means Putin has not had to worry about it. The country has served the same buffer role for Russia's southern border as Ukraine has for its western border. But Russia screwed up by issuing their warning against outside interference. They have revealed their concern (ie weakness) to the world, and there are actors who will attempt to take advantage of that. Russia telling the US to NOT do something is a guarantee of the US doing it anyway. If they had just acted unconcerned and said nothing, it would have played out much better for them. Now, the US will be tempted to meddle in affairs that do not concern them and present Putin with a "two-front war" scenario which they might think would offer Ukraine some protection (it won't). Neither Russia nor China would react very well to that kind of development, and I think it would result in strengthening the existing partnership between them.

For the moment, however, I think this is merely a hiccup in the region's geopolitics. We should keep an eye on the situation, but I don't foresee it developing into a major concern.
 
3. Political reforms: Creation of a Provisional Government of reputable and public citizens. Withdrawal from all alliances with #Russia

Uh oh.

The country has served the same buffer role for Russia's southern border as Ukraine has for its western border. But Russia screwed up by issuing their warning against outside interference. They have revealed their concern (ie weakness) to the world,
I don't think this is necessarily true. It isn't weakness to tell others to remain out of what Russia considers their sphere of influence.

I read it as Russia telling the U.S. not to try and take advantage of the situation.

It certainly is a distraction for Russia. May take some of the pressure off Ukraine. OTOH, Russia may want to project strength and push the Ukraine situation. That would be disasterous for Russia if they need to go into Kazakhstan.

Here's the deal as I see it: Russia does not want Kazakhstan to become another Ukraine and they are going to stop it. Look for some kind of Russian intervention there.
 
Officially, Kazakhstan requested the CSTO partners to assist because of external aggression.
Also, the army liberated the Almata airport.
 
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