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Lets Talk Oil-(CLOSED)

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Ouch, I was wrong in my thinking on this one,

we might see $150 but my feeling is we won't see $200, however if i am wrong and it does hit 200 and the straight is closed for a month or more then I will start ringing alarm bells for a global recession possibility in my head.

This one is going to hurt hopefully it does not last too long. even 3 weeks and we will start seeing changes in the way people spend money and drive, a month or more and things will hurt.

Korea market is apparently down 8.1%
 
willrod1989 said:
WTI and Brent are currently above $117. How soon before we cross $200?
Click to expand...
just pulled up the ticker, bouncing at 102 gold lower to 5000, the indicator of gold low suggests the money people are playing oil. forecast if 150 oil by the end of march, my guess it’ll miss but April 15 a good probsbility, Somebody is banking on high oil. China has adapted , their “training” has slowed around Taiwan,
USA has control on oil at present,

The war in Iran will be a determining factor, when the money people feel they made enough money from this , you suddenly will see peace break out.

Commodities - Live Quote Price Trading Data

Trading Economics provides data for several commodities including live bid/ask quotes, last trading prices, forecasts, charts with historical time series and news. This table was last updated on Wednesday, April 29, 2026.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
Scroll down and note Ural oil, $90.10, up 26%, Russian oil is taking the greatest profit, Put your thinking caps on, Hint, what funds Russisn military power?
 
As of March 9, 2026, Italy is contributing naval assets to a European-led defensive mission intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to commercial traffic due to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Italian Naval Contribution: Italy has committed the destroyer Andrea Doria as part of a multinational European escort force.
    • This force is currently moving toward the region to join other European assets, including French and Dutch warships.
  • Mission Objectives: The mission, led by France, is described as "purely defensive and supportive".
    • Its primary goal is to escort container ships and tankers once the most intense phase of the military conflict subsides.
  • Operational Context: While President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to begin escorts on March 3, 2026, European nations like Italy, France, and Greece are establishing a separate coalition.
    • This European effort aims to secure the "free flow of energy" without becoming directly involved in the U.S.-Israeli offensive operations.
  • Strait Status: Commercial traffic through the Strait remains at a virtual halt, with only a handful of tankers transiting since early March.
    • Major shipping giants like CMA CGM have suspended transits and rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]

  • [1] https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com
    [2] https://www.cnn.com
    [3] https://www.argusmedia.com
    [4] https://euobserver.com
    [5] https://ground.news
    [6] https://www.facebook.com
    [7] https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com
    [8] https://www.nbcrightnow.com
    [9] https://www.france24.com
    [10] https://gcaptain.com
 
Lostpuppy said:
As of March 9, 2026, Italy is contributing naval assets to a European-led defensive mission intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to commercial traffic due to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Italian Naval Contribution: Italy has committed the destroyer Andrea Doria as part of a multinational European escort force.
    • This force is currently moving toward the region to join other European assets, including French and Dutch warships.
  • Mission Objectives: The mission, led by France, is described as "purely defensive and supportive".
    • Its primary goal is to escort container ships and tankers once the most intense phase of the military conflict subsides.
  • Operational Context: While President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to begin escorts on March 3, 2026, European nations like Italy, France, and Greece are establishing a separate coalition.
    • This European effort aims to secure the "free flow of energy" without becoming directly involved in the U.S.-Israeli offensive operations.
  • Strait Status: Commercial traffic through the Strait remains at a virtual halt, with only a handful of tankers transiting since early March.
    • Major shipping giants like CMA CGM have suspended transits and rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]

  • [1] https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com
    [2] https://www.cnn.com
    [3] https://www.argusmedia.com
    [4] https://euobserver.com
    [5] https://ground.news
    [6] https://www.facebook.com
    [7] https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com
    [8] https://www.nbcrightnow.com
    [9] https://www.france24.com
    [10] https://gcaptain.com
Click to expand...
I also saw this

www.cnbc.com

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday morning to discuss release of oil reserves, sources say

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to threats from Iran.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

all this might buy some time but the longer this conflict goes on the less and lees they can hide how much this is going to hurt. Also that is assuming something big does not happen in the Straight of Hormuz, right now its moistly fear reactions and reactions due to uncertainty but should something really happen then yes oil could skyrocket again.
 
45-1911guy said:
I also saw this

www.cnbc.com

G7 energy ministers to meet Tuesday morning to discuss release of oil reserves, sources say

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to threats from Iran.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

all this might buy some time but the longer this conflict goes on the less and lees they can hide how much this is going to hurt. Also that is assuming something big does not happen in the Straight of Hormuz, right now its moistly fear reactions and reactions due to uncertainty but should something really happen then yes oil could skyrocket again.
Click to expand...
A third of the world's reserves are being released. That's a colossal amount, but global consumption is around 100m barrels per day. Compensating for loss of oil transferred through the straight gives us 20-30 days of 'normal' supply. If the straight remains unpassable in 3-4 weeks time Brent is going to skyrocket again. And given governments tend not to like dropping below 50% capacity there will likely not be another release of this size, or at all. Or maybe targeted at specific countries/regions.

Wti and Brent are rebounding on the good news, vix has dropped. But, crude's not the problem - it's getting refined petrol and diesel...

Feels like the cans been kicked down the road without any fixing of the supply issues. What are the chances of a surrender or diplomatic resolution in the next couple of weeks?
 
Oil prices fluctuate due to various world events.
It was in the high $120’s in 2022.
So the story isn’t that oil is up now. The question is how long it’s high.
Same with stock market. “the market tanked or plummeted last week”. Down 1-2% is plummeting?
Don’t misunderstand me negative economic indicators must be watched. But a day or even a week does not make a negative economic trend.

Even the price of gas? During Biden’s term gas price highs reached $4.90 to $5.00.

I’m not saying this is nothing compared to Biden, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine there were real reasons oil and gas prices reached those levels. Just as there are now.
 
Last edited:
Publius said:
Oil prices fluctuate do various world events.
It was in the high $120’s in 2022.
So the story isn’t that oil is up now. The question is how long it’s high.
Same with stock market. “the market tanked or plummeted weekend last week”. Down 1-2% is plummeting?
Don’t misunderstand me negative economic indicators must be watched. But a day or even a week does not make a negative economic trend.

Even the price of gas? During Biden’s term gas price highs reached $4.90 to $5.00.

I’m not saying this is nothing compared to Biden, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine there were real reasons oil and gas prices reached those levels. Just as there are now.
Click to expand...
agreed, a one day drop in the market or a one day rise in oil is not really a concern, its a long game, we won't see the affects of high prices for 3-4 weeks and that was when oil was $117 a barrel, something to watch but I have seen the market drop 1200 and then at the end of the day only be down 400, oil was $117 now its $87, we are not out of the woods but things are still figuring out what they are doing, could be a good sign could be a bad sign.

the worry is the sustained issues over a long period, not the one day number
 
Last edited:
leelovesbikestoo said:
A third of the world's reserves are being released. That's a colossal amount, but global consumption is around 100m barrels per day. Compensating for loss of oil transferred through the straight gives us 20-30 days of 'normal' supply. If the straight remains unpassable in 3-4 weeks time Brent is going to skyrocket again. And given governments tend not to like dropping below 50% capacity there will likely not be another release of this size, or at all. Or maybe targeted at specific countries/regions.

Wti and Brent are rebounding on the good news, vix has dropped. But, crude's not the problem - it's getting refined petrol and diesel...

Feels like the cans been kicked down the road without any fixing of the supply issues. What are the chances of a surrender or diplomatic resolution in the next couple of weeks?
Click to expand...
IMHO, I will go on the limb. Its benficial to financial investors to keep it high.
Will peoples of nations allow it?
Will governments of nations effected by cutbacks in oil avaialability be happy, No🤔

I am waiting 3 days and will run another tactical assesment,

Currently gold is running up and down in pricing, oil, the same,

If you are gambling on increase or decrease , anyonebwith sufficient wealth to long and short a trade will limely make wins on both variables due to a decent stable swing in pringing.

Gordon Geck quote

“The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good”
“The most valuable commodity I know of is information”

Whoever knows the actions of any given goverment action win!

So what happens, when happens, why happens,

Lots of questions may eventually be asked.🤔😂😂🦈🦈🦈🦈
 
Oil markets just suffered one of the most dramatic single day price surges since the pandemic.

When Asian markets today, WTI crude hit $119.48 a barrel and Brent touched $119.50, gains of 30% percent before prices stabilized around $104 to $108. Oil has not traded above $100 since 2022.

themerchantsnews.substack.com

Oil Market in Chaos

Don't Miss The 5 Oil Price Scenarios From Here
themerchantsnews.substack.com themerchantsnews.substack.com
 
Lostpuppy said:
IMHO, I will go on the limb. Its benficial to financial investors to keep it high.
Will peoples of nations allow it?
Will governments of nations effected by cutbacks in oil avaialability be happy, No🤔

I am waiting 3 days and will run another tactical assesment,

Currently gold is running up and down in pricing, oil, the same,

If you are gambling on increase or decrease , anyonebwith sufficient wealth to long and short a trade will limely make wins on both variables due to a decent stable swing in pringing.

Gordon Geck quote

“The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good”
“The most valuable commodity I know of is information”

Whoever knows the actions of any given goverment action win!

So what happens, when happens, why happens,

Lots of questions may eventually be asked.🤔😂😂🦈🦈🦈🦈
Click to expand...
The oil release article seems to sugest a Tuesday decision, 🤔
 
We may not be the only ones wondering who is profiting from up and down swings

REP. STEVENS INTRODUCES CONGRESSIONAL STOCK TRADING BAN, ADDITIONAL MEASURES TO RESTORE PUBLIC TRUST AS PART OF ‘NO GETTING RICH IN CONGRESS ACT’​

Rep. Stevens Introduces Congressional Stock Trading Ban, Additional Measures to Restore Public Trust as Part of ‘No Getting Rich in Congress Act’

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens led her colleagues Congressman Derek Tran (CA-45), Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-IL), and Congresswoman Andrea Salinas (OR-06), in introducing the No Getting Rich in Congress Act, sweeping legislation to crack down on insider trading...
stevens.house.gov stevens.house.gov

“The point is ladies and gentlemen that greed, for lack of a better word, is good”
“The most valuable commodity I know of is information”
 
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