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Monkeypox | 2022

Spyglass said:
This is not correct. 50 genetic divergences have been observed as of now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528833592532541443
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good catch i had been looking for anything new on this and been unsuccessful.
I tracked down the Portuguese paper referenced in the tweet and attached a link.
https://virological.org/t/first-dra...break-may-2022-confirmed-case-in-portugal/799
Looking at a message board attached to the paper they still don't know enough to determine it this is a new mutation or a mutation in a source host not yet seen. either way it is new to humans at least in the northern hemisphere.
the ro factor you sourced is actually good because being that low it is barely replicating itself with no effort or monitoring to control it.
To me that says with monitoring and contact behavior mitigation it should be able to be contained fairly well.
the next 2-3 weeks with monitoring and mitigation efforts should tell us a lot about it.
personally I'm still not too worried but thanks for the links!
 
guest said:
good catch i had been looking for anything new on this and been unsuccessful.
I tracked down the Portuguese paper referenced in the tweet and attached a link.
https://virological.org/t/first-dra...break-may-2022-confirmed-case-in-portugal/799
Looking at a message board attached to the paper they still don't know enough to determine it this is a new mutation or a mutation in a source host not yet seen. either way it is new to humans at least in the northern hemisphere.
the ro factor you sourced is actually good because being that low it is barely replicating itself with no effort or monitoring to control it.
To me that says with monitoring and contact behavior mitigation it should be able to be contained fairly well.
the next 2-3 weeks with monitoring and mitigation efforts should tell us a lot about it.
personally I'm still not too worried but thanks for the links!
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The issue with the current R0 estimate is that it is still too early to know for sure. MANY cases are still in the very long incubation period, which is 5 - 21 days. We will have more of a handle on this once case numbers increase further. Traditional Monkeypox has an R0 of 2, so my feeling is we will see the 1.15 - 1.26 number increase in the next week.
 
Guest said:
There is no dismissal of them, it is part of life, bad shit happens. With the mishmash advice and ineffective lockdowns we would have faired better if the cdc did nothing.
As far as the fatality numbers throwing out a million dead here falls on many deaf ears. The incidents of over reporting or ignoring pre existing health conditions as the actual cause of deaths. Makes top end fatality numbers from Covid meaningless.
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This is a good example of the public health trust and facts issues in USA, regardless of what the disease is.
When a "million dead here falls on many deaf ears," honestly it is time to pack up and find another place to live.
Because we haven't seen anything yet in terms of potential pandemic horrors in our global society.
 
TCharley300 said:
Now, I'm not trying to start an argument. But if you look at the records from say 2018 back (in other words before covid) you'll discover that the numbers that died from just regular flu either equaled or exceeded the million dead from covid. That's why I kept saying--it really wasn't anything to worry about.
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So for 10 years of deaths from influenza in USA the death toll was 348,400 deaths. The idea that this is equivalent to 1,000,000+ deaths from COVID-19 in 2 years in USA is simply not logical mathematics. It matters in the same way that it did for Winston Smith in 1984 that 2+2=4. When we give in to influence to believe that 2+2=5, then the fracture in society on basic facts leaves no room for facts anymore, because opinion takes over from facts altogether. As with the monkeypox outbreak, it is deeply troubling to have a spread to 21 countries, we need contact tracing and virology studies to determine if it is the same virus or not. The confirmed cases have doubled from 100+ to 200+ this week. It is something that definitely needs to be studied and watched. But we need to keep the same facts. For example, we can't start saying there are 20,000 or 20 confirmed cases when there are 200. We can share the same facts while research is ongoing. Disease does not care about our opinion. One of the few true weapons we have against endless, tireless, indefatigable disease is our ability to THINK.
 
Watching this new virus take off, when you study the statistics so far, you'll discover that it has involved mostly transexual or homosexual males, and every one had traveled overseas. This reminds me as to how AIDS got started. OK, here's the prediction and only a prediction. You'll see this being completely being blown out of proportion, you'll see a vaccine push and probably lockdowns once again. Again, in truth and sincerity, if it was something to really worry about, with my years of dealing with medical, I'd be concerned. But that's not the case, and it probably won't be. And, also look at the timing. Here came a virus during an election year, which did affect the election and now here we are 2 years later, and it's the same thing. That looks real suspicious to me. Remember, there's a mid term election coming up pretty soon. Go figure. the biggest thing that a certain political party can push right now is fear.
 
TCharley300 said:
the biggest thing that a certain political party can push right now is fear.
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Let's hope that a continued review of the facts on the monkeypox outbreak shows that it is limited and controllable.
On the other hand, I think France and Denmark are smart in thinking about use of a targeted vaccine for high risk groups more likely to be affected.
There is no benefit in waiting for it to spread.
www.rfi.fr

Push for targeted monkeypox vaccine rollout in France, Denmark

Health authorities in France and Denmark want to start a vaccination campaign targeting adults who have been exposed to monkeypox – a milder version of smallpox that spreads easily through sexual activity.
www.rfi.fr www.rfi.fr

As to politics and disease, Independent here, but confident in one thing: Disease does not care about our politics or other countries' politics.
If we haven't learned that, we have learned nothing from the disaster of the past 2 years, where USA had as many die from COVID-19 as 30 years of influenza.
The only thing that disease benefits from our politics is when we focus on politics and stop focusing on thinking and facts. Disease benefits from that.

I recall in January 2020, learning about this horrible disease as part of watching CCP persecution of public, and realizing this tidal wave was coming, but all the USA public and press wanted to talk about was Ukraine and Col. Vindman. As we had to bury family members, and many of my family got terribly sick, I remember cursing the January 2020 distraction of Ukraine and its use by USA politicians, and all of the subsequent gross incompetence at every level throughout the USG, and also thinking if I never heard about Ukraine for another 50 years, it would be too soon. 1 million dead Americans later, once again the USA politics on Ukraine made it the top priority of the USG.

We can learn from our mistakes on this. We can prioritize the safety and lives of the citizens of our own nations, while still helping other countries.
 
Monkeypox is almost a pandemic now, there are cases all over Europe, in the Middle East and of xourse the USA, Africa and Australia.
 
DucknCover said:
www.latimes.com

Suspected monkeypox cases rise in California; officials expect more to come

The number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in California climbs to eight. L.A. County and San Francisco officials say they expect to see more.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
gizmodo.com

CDC Says You Should Wear a Mask While Traveling—for Monkeypox

The CDC has raised the threat level for monkeypox, as more than 1,000 cases have been identified worldwide.
gizmodo.com gizmodo.com
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So it’s starts again monkeypox has never been to be transmissible via respiratory.
But the CDC is already raising the clarion call for mask again.
 
www.nytimes.com

Monkeypox Can Be Airborne, Too

An abrupt change in C.D.C. guidance underscores a little-known phenomenon: On occasion, monkeypox can be transmitted through aerosols, similar to the coronavirus.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534997192951357440
So it’s starts again monkeypox has never been to be transmissible via respiratory.
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That's wrong it can infect people via airborne droplets but I am not sure how efficient this form of transmission is.
Monkeypox is after all still adapting to it's new human host while the Coronavirus became the most contagious virus of all in just 3 years.
With 534 million cases worldwide to date this large number of hosts is causing a high mutation rate.
However, Monkeypox will stay with us just like all the other viruses, it is up to the virus whether it becomes more vicious or harmless,
atm it would harm children and the unborn that's their (CDC) main concern in my view.
 
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