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Preparing for Possible US Food Shortages Due to Fertilizer Prices

RiffRaff said:
Indiana crops have finally been planted for the most part. One of the two fields surrounding us has been plowed but nothing planted yet. The other has been planted, but not sure if it's corn or soybeans yet. According to the rotation schedule, it should be corn this year.

I saw king crab legs at $119/pound the other day in a seafood market/restaurant. Our grocery bill is about $100 higher than normal. Haven't seen much in the way of panic-buying, but most people can't afford to right now.
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Sounds like you are in farm country. Do you have a garden or any animals? Thanks for the update.
 
william said:
Sounds like you are in farm country. Do you have a garden or any animals? Thanks for the update.
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Nearest town to us is five miles away and there's enough corn, soybean, and winter wheat fields around us to feed our entire county population. We don't have any animals, but our woods are full of deer and turkey, not to mention tons of small game. Hunting isn't an issue for me and I could learn to trap if necessary. We also have neighbors with chickens with whom we could trade for eggs. Others within a mile or so of us have animals, and there's an Amish family about three miles north of us. We do have a small garden area set up which we will probably be expanding this year. We're also on well and septic, so it would pretty easy for us to go 100% self-sufficient if we really had to.
 
@RiffRaff this will help explain why the economy, the oil market, and subsequently fertilizer too have not been 'blown up' like many suspected might happen.


Highly recommend watching video. Even though it is highly eurocentric point of view. Still a valid analysis at the end of day. Even CNN and FOX can have their moments, you know. 😂💁
 
NuclearID said:
@RiffRaff this will help explain why the economy, the oil market, and subsequently fertilizer too have not been 'blown up' like many suspected might happen.
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Interesting analysis, although I saw it more as an explanation as why catastrophic effects have been delayed, as opposed to occurring immediately.

NuclearID said:

Highly recommend watching video. Even though it is highly eurocentric point of view. Still a valid analysis at the end of day. Even CNN and FOX can have their moments, you know. 😂💁
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Even the Myan calendar is right every 3,000 years or so.
 
RiffRaff said:
Interesting analysis, although I saw it more as an explanation as why catastrophic effects have been delayed, as opposed to occurring immediately.


Even the Myan calendar is right every 3,000 years or so.
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Yes... Essentially the world's economy was a lot more stronger than we thought. But you can't stop the inevitable, just delay it. Not looking forward to next year planting season or price of fuel...
 
NuclearID said:
It has to be wheat.... one thing if it was corn or soy, much rather the shortage be corn or soy.

But the smallest US wheat harvest since 1972? Wheat is made to make a lot of our food staples... Paired with next year inevitable shocks that are being postponed currently... Hmm 🤔
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Yeah, lowest planted acres since 1919, no surprise. Reason excess global supply of wheat. So farmers shifted crops.
Farmers will shift the amount of acres planted to wheat year to year. Very much based on markets and supply world wide.
Corn and soybeans are both ahead of historic average for percent planted this year.
The impact will not so much be on quantity but price.

In 2021 the CPI for food was 3.9%
2022 it was 9.9%
2023 it was 5.8%
2024 - 2.3%
2025 - 2.9%
YTD 2026 is running around 3%
 
I've stocked up on a lot of rice and beans, along with lard and cooking oil. I also have a lot of flour, cornmeal, powdered milk, powdered eggs, sugar, powdered butter, and honey. Our vegetable garden is fully planted, and I've started building a chicken coop. The garage is full of canned fruits and vegetables. I also came across a bread machine at a yard sale for $5 that appears to be working well.
 
Publius said:
Yeah, lowest planted acres since 1919, no surprise. Reason excess global supply of wheat. So farmers shifted crops.
Farmers will shift the amount of acres planted to wheat year to year. Very much based on markets and supply world wide.
Corn and soybeans are both ahead of historic average for percent planted this year.
The impact will not so much be on quantity but price.

In 2021 the CPI for food was 3.9%
2022 it was 9.9%
2023 it was 5.8%
2024 - 2.3%
2025 - 2.9%
YTD 2026 is running around 3%
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Good context. Thanks!
 
willrod1989 said:
I've stocked up on a lot of rice and beans, along with lard and cooking oil. I also have a lot of flour, cornmeal, powdered milk, powdered eggs, sugar, powdered butter, and honey. Our vegetable garden is fully planted, and I've started building a chicken coop. The garage is full of canned fruits and vegetables. I also came across a bread machine at a yard sale for $5 that appears to be working well.
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Lard! A man after my own heart. ❤️
 
willrod1989 said:
I've stocked up on a lot of rice and beans, along with lard and cooking oil. I also have a lot of flour, cornmeal, powdered milk, powdered eggs, sugar, powdered butter, and honey. Our vegetable garden is fully planted, and I've started building a chicken coop. The garage is full of canned fruits and vegetables. I also came across a bread machine at a yard sale for $5 that appears to be working well.
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Same here! Plus lots of freeze dried meats. I'm worried that I may have to replace the bread flour though since I stocked up on it during the pandemic (bread was hard to get here) and I'm not sure if it's still good. I've already gotten new yeast.


btw, you probably know this but you need bread flour rather than all purpose four when making bread.
 
Librarylady said:
btw, you probably know this but you need bread flour rather than all purpose four when making bread.
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Yes you need bread flour. It is related to the protein content. Bread making protein needs higher protein levels or else it won't realise. You can fake a lower level protein with carbonate to make things rise but then the kneed time has to be lower. You cannot go too low though.
 
Dr Arthur said:
Yes you need bread flour. It is related to the protein content. Bread making protein needs higher protein levels or else it won't realise. You can fake a lower level protein with carbonate to make things rise but then the kneed time has to be lower. You cannot go too low though.
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I read that it has more to do with the gluten content? Bread flour has a much higher gluten content. When I baked bread with regular flour (bread flour was impossible to get during covid) it rose fine and tasted normal but was crumbly, more like cake. You can get some kind of gluten stuff to.add to regular flour if you can't get bread flour that's supposed to help.

Bread flour was practically the only thing it didn't occur to me to stock on the last time around....
 
Librarylady said:
I read that it has more to do with the gluten content? Bread flour has a much higher gluten content. When I baked bread with regular flour (bread flour was impossible to get during covid) it rose fine and tasted normal but was crumbly, more like cake. You can get some kind of gluten stuff to.add to regular flour if you can't get bread flour that's supposed to help.

Bread flour was practically the only thing it didn't occur to me to stock on the last time around....
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Yes! I made sure to stock plenty of bread flour along with all-purpose flour.
 
Librarylady said:
I read that it has more to do with the gluten content?
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From what I remember the gluten content is important for loaf adhesion so it does not fall apart after baking. It is also important for yeast growth which is part of what makes the dough rise. Higher gluten and protein with dough that is allowed to sit in the final raising for an extended time can enhance the rise during baking along with fewer gut issues apparently. Traditional loaves have this extended sit period for a reason. I have had excellent results allowing the dough to sit overnight in baking trays before placing in oven. Who would have thought this site would devolve into cooking advice.
 

What’s wrong with modern wheat?​

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The vast majority of the wheat we consume today has been drastically altered from its original form. While wheat has yet to be genetically engineered it has been altered through intensive conventional breeding. “What is inherent and drives modern wheat breeding programs are higher yields and more loaves of bread, linked with the national drive to sell cheap food in this country. Cheap food is the main food policy these days. With that being the main goal many things have been changed. To make higher yields, plants were made shorter and more uniform, they were made more disease resistant, and more resistant to insects.” But all of these changes plus others have had many unintended consequences. “What is probably even more significant is the change in the proteins and starches in the kernel to make more loaves of bread with less wheat. This is significant because this is the part we actually eat."

The cheap wheat most often consumed today is stripped of much of its nutrients and removes many of the benefits that can be found in ancient grains. All of this is done to lower costs. Research shows that it is how we have altered modern wheat that is resulting in so many health complications linked to wheat. , “Recent changes made to modern wheat is probably at the heart of the troubles that people are having eating wheat, these unintended consequences are what people are struggling with.” The current system is an artificial system that is only propped up by large government subsidies.
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Health concerns with herbicide use:​

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“More and more research is starting to point to the chemicals causing some of the trouble that people are having with wheat. Research in Canada has demonstrated that glypohsate residue is mimicking the symptoms that people have from wheat sensitivities and there have been all kinds of health problems that disappear, in children when they go on an organic diet.”
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The problem with wheat will be that there is no way to distinguish a GMO kernel from a non-GMO kernel. This will be the problem in the marketplace; there is no way to differentiate it.
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Lack of control of the seed system:​

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“The other problem is stripping farmers’ control over the seed and agricultural system. Surrendering those choices to just a few agrochemical companies who prohibit farmers from keeping seed they grow for planting means that the companies will now provide all the seed and all the chemicals in a very controlled way. Farmers will have no say over price, they will have no say over what seeds they can use, and what chemicals they can spray with. Farmers will be sold a promise that this will make them more money but once they buy into it they will be worse off than they already are now, because they bought into a closed system which is totally dependent on the chemical company. When the prices of the commodities go down and the prices for the chemicals go up they are stuck in a system they cannot escape.”
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What's Wrong with Modern Wheat

The vast majority of the wheat we consume today has been drastically altered. It is now genetically engineered or GMO wheat.
greenamerica.org greenamerica.org
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