Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Claims the UK and France Are Preparing to Help Ukraine Acquire a Nuclear Weapon

[NuclearID]

I know this is off topic, and potentially for another thread, but I often wonder the consequences of either Poland or South Korea developing nuclear weapons as I see those two as the most likely.

Funny you mentioned. I added this to my post after posting:

Also for these reasons if Japan ever created or tested a nuke. They better get ready for serious diplomatic and economic blowback even from their allies in the West. The West will punish allies for developing nuclear weapons if not just so they don't look hypocritical.

So yes. Consequences same, even if your a Western ally. The West would look hypocritical (more than usual) if they didn't.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Perhaps Ukraine has enough tactical nukes to announce it with a test? ( I have asked myself after 4-12 years of war vs Russia, why a contry with Nuclear experiance wouldn´t re-establish its own assurances, when it became clear that the Ink on those Budapest memorandums was not worth anything )

They even lost planes and weapons on the failed accord, so much for trust!!!!!!

 

[Lostpuppy]

Funny you mentioned. I added this to my post after posting:


So yes. Consequences same, even if your a Western ally. The West would look hypocritical (more than usual) if they didn't.

So you can imagine why hollywood has done so well with bad guys getting bombs , we can see what real bad guys do with the threat of them already,,,
Too many “B” movies out of that plot thank you

 

[Lostpuppy]

Pulling a Columbo here,,,,
Ukraine doesnt have big boy boom toy,
If Russia could convince all the media and thus the west,,,,
The regime obviously has been Jonesing for this…..
Sure would be a cheap, repeat cheap excuse to blast their way of the pickle they are in…. Just saying,

 

[teekay99]

Pulling a Columbo here,,,,
Ukraine doesnt have big boy boom toy,
If Russia could convince all the media and thus the west,,,,
The regime obviously has been Jonesing for this…..
Sure would be a cheap, repeat cheap excuse to blast their way of the pickle they are in…. Just saying,

I think Russia can't really use a nuke in Ukraine. That would risk alienating China, and Russia has a dependency on China due to the Ukraine conflict. There are probably other reasons too...

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Well, if Ukraine tested a nuke, they had better make an immediate threat to Russia to nuke St. Petersburg or that they have smuggled a nuke into Moscow. Otherwise Russia is going to rain devastation on them.

 

[Snowfall]

I think Russia can't really use a nuke in Ukraine. That would risk alienating China, and Russia has a dependency on China due to the Ukraine conflict. There are probably other reasons too...

There’s zero benefit whatsoever to the Russians using a nuke, especially at this point. If they were in serious danger of losing Crimea or something, and they thought using a dozen tactical nukes would help them they would. But right now, it would accomplish nothing but making their situation worse.

 

[NuclearID]

There’s zero benefit whatsoever to the Russians using a nuke, especially at this point. If they were in serious danger of losing Crimea or something, and they thought using a dozen tactical nukes would help them they would. But right now, it would accomplish nothing but making their situation worse.

Also it's spring they don't want their freshly planted crops covered in freshly coated radioactive atomic particles.

Tactical nuclear weapons alone typically don't create enough fallout if hitting a standalone military target to be a major concern unless ground bursted.... But I'd assume Russia would use them on cities. And if cities burn from a tactical nuke, then yes, fallout becomes a concern when cities burn regardless of size of nuclear device.

 

[Erecon]

Well, if Ukraine tested a nuke, they had better make an immediate threat to Russia to nuke St. Petersburg or that they have smuggled a nuke into Moscow. Otherwise Russia is going to rain devastation on them.

Sure but that could be prevented by having enough warheads rdy, also could it be a deal after a cease fire, so we wont see another attack afterwards? ( ofc I lean with the majority that Russia is only saber ratling again, because their position has weakened, still and I have written about it a couple of times, that Ukraine might seek Nukes, because its the only way to protect themselfs from those threats )

Edit Could it be the security guarantees that France and UK will provide Nuclear umbrella to Ukraine after a cease fire?

 

[Snowfall]

Sure but that could be prevented by having enough warheads rdy, also could it be a deal after a cease fire, so we wont see another attack afterwards? ( ofc I lean with the majority that Russia is only saber ratling again, because their position has weakened, still and I have written about it a couple of times, that Ukraine might seek Nukes, because its the only way to protect themselfs from those threats )

If Ukraine gets a nuke, and we’re legitimately planning on testing it to prove a point, they might as well test it over Moscow because I’d bet the Russians would respond the exact same way either way.

 

[Snowfall]

Also, don’t forget U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting tomorrow and Geneva. If the Kremlin thinks they can start a rumor to drive a wedge between the two, god knows they’ll do it.

 

[Deleted account]

Going through the Russian media outlets, it doesn't seem like they have anything serious riding on the back of this. Peskov actually seemed to backpedal a bit during his interview with Zarubin earlier today:

Будем надеяться, что своевременное опубликование этих разведданных все-таки станет препятствием на пути реализации вот этих вот сумасшедших, совершенно безумных планов. (Let's hope that the timely publication of this intelligence will ultimately become an obstacle to the implementation of these crazy, completely insane plans.)

I'm gonna say it's about 4:5 odds on ritualistic sabre-rattling, with a less likely possibility that Russia is overreacting to some theoretical plans on the part of UK/FR to assist Ukraine with obtaining nuclear weapons at some unspecified point in the future. Remember that a sane country makes plans for all kinds of contingencies - even when the likelihood of these contingencies materializing is very low. This one wouldn't, in my opinion, fall outside of the realm of plausibility.

Source

 

[Deleted account]

I also read this morning from the ISW that Putin is considering a mobilization again, so it’s possible this is a “this is why we’re fighting because otherwise the west could do this” type deal.

ISW are less trustworthy than they would have you believe. Their opinions have been known to be wildly off the mark, and they sure as hell don't know what Putin is or isn't considering at the moment. Moreover, the fact MSM seem to trust ISW unquestioningly is why you shouldn't rely on MSM for your OSINT.

 

[Snowfall]

ISW are less trustworthy than they would have you believe.

I fully agree, that’s just the initial place I read it saw some other sources about it too though.

 

[Publius]

Should Ukraine pursue nuclear weapons?
Pretty much for them to decide.
They gave up nukes to guarantee peace, that didn’t work.

Russia and China have done nothing to limit DPRK from developing their nuclear program. Same could be argued for Iran. But that is a slightly more opaque level of support.

And what was once an assumed static policy position in the west for non-proliferation has eroded considerably in ROK and Japan both. As well in the west.

Ukraine is a more difficult call because they are already involved in a bloody war.

I’m not evaluating should they take this path. Only pointing out that non-proliferation has largely been a one way street in the last couple of decades.

If Kim dials up the rhetoric even higher I expect both Japan and S Korea will go nuclear in short order.
And we thought sanctions on Iran have been ineffective. They won’t even make it to a press conference if they chose to acquire nukes.

Again im not evaluating the wisdom one way or the other.
Only pointing out that non-proliferation has almost uniformly failed.

 

[Gargolu]

So you can imagine why hollywood has done so well with bad guys getting bombs , we can see what real bad guys do with the threat of them already,,,
Too many “B” movies out of that plot thank you

B movies are the best , you know they are cheesy and make great popcorn flicks!