Taiwan Crisis | US-Japan-China-Australia | Nov. 11th—Dec. 31st/2025

[NuclearID]

New analysis describes the South China Sea as an emerging Chinese electronic warfare battlespace, with island bases, mobile jammers, and shipborne systems integrated into a “kill web” designed to disrupt or blind U.S. and allied sensors, comms, GPS, and data links across the region.

The picture is less about single platforms and more about a fused EM environment intended to strip carrier groups and patrol aircraft of their information advantage in any confrontation.

NOTE:
Based on open technical reporting and doctrinal analysis of PLA EW and Multi Domain Precision Warfare concepts, infrastructure and deployments are supported by commercial imagery and U.S. Army threat assessments.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1999139552875675989

 

[william]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1999097297834233992

 

[Araxen]

The United States would suffer a devasting defeat and lose its biggest aircraft carrier if it tried to stop China invading Taiwan, according to a top secret Pentagon report.

War games showed the U.S. would be overwhelmed by China's arsenal of around 600 hypersonic weapons, along with missiles and nuclear submarines.

The grim assessment, revealed by the New York Times, confirmed the conclusions of previous war games, but it also highlighted wider concerns about the future direction of the U.S. military and its continued reliance on outdated methods.

Top secret war document reveals China would crush US

War games showed devastating outcomes in a conflict over Taiwan and pointed to the need for the Pentagon to drop 'legacy weapons' and further embrace new technology like drones.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Deleted account]

Top secret war document reveals China would crush US

War games showed devastating outcomes in a conflict over Taiwan and pointed to the need for the Pentagon to drop 'legacy weapons' and further embrace new technology like drones.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Absolutely not surprised. I've literally been saying this for years: America is priming itself to get absolutely curbstomped by China if it tries to contest the Taiwan invasion.

Shouldn't have blown all your money on 20th century relics such as aircraft carriers and fighter jets.

Alas, it seems no one at the Pentagon reads my posts.

 

[NCDinosFan]

ROC is probably more fitting.

we can refer to it as ROC or Chinese Taipei and it would be okay.
We referred to Guantanamo bay as American Guantanamo Bay or even Guam as American Guam

 

[Araxen]

Absolutely not surprised. I've literally been saying this for years: America is priming itself to get absolutely curbstomped by China if it tries to contest the Taiwan invasion.

Shouldn't have blown all your money on 20th century relics such as aircraft carriers and fighter jets.

Alas, it seems no one at the Pentagon reads my posts.

Yeah, It's what I've been thinking for awhile. They won't even need to use those hypersonic missiles right away. They'll just fly a million or so drones over to Taiwan and bomb the fuck out of them. China can make a million drones a day. How do you stop that?

 

[Deleted account]

Yeah, It's what I've been thinking for awhile. They won't even need to use those hypersonic missiles right away. They'll just fly a million or so drones over to Taiwan and bomb the fuck out of them. China can make a million drones a day. How do you stop that?

Well, a million a day is an exaggeration, but yeah, war has changed, and America has slept through the change. That's in no small part due to pork-barrel politics, but the causes don't really matter. What matters is that America will obviously lose the upcoming world war, and - like any empire that loses a major war - it won't survive its own defeat. Either someone ends up pushing the red button, or the US will destroy itself in an internecine conflict. Either way, all that awaits my American friends is ash. Some will deserve it, others won't. History won't care at all - to quote Freddie Mercury.

 

[william]

Japan by itself kicked chinas butt in WWII. What do you think the USA AND Japan will do to china, together!

 

[william]

Top secret war document reveals China would crush US

War games showed devastating outcomes in a conflict over Taiwan and pointed to the need for the Pentagon to drop 'legacy weapons' and further embrace new technology like drones.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I think the key words here are "War Games". I do believe these games are designed for the adversary to win. I will give you that the CCP will most likely be able to severely damage ONE carrier. The US has eleven.

 

[Erecon]

Japan by itself kicked chinas butt in WWII. What do you think the USA AND Japan will do to china, together!

Can you cite Japans current and ww2 forces, likewise China?

 

[NuclearID]

Japan’s defense minister has reaffirmed that plans to deploy medium range surface to air missiles on Yonaguni Island, at the western tip of the Ryukyu chain within sight of Taiwan, are on schedule.

The visit highlighted three strands of Tokyo’s “deterrence by denial” posture in the southwest islands: expanding JSDF missile coverage over key sea lanes, improving logistics links across the Sakishima chain, and quietly investing in civil defense and shelter preparedness for local communities.

Seen alongside new missile and EW units on Ishigaki and other islands, Yonaguni’s build out is turning Japan’s southwest periphery into a contiguous front line facing Chinese air and naval activity around Taiwan and the East China Sea.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1999437644825051496

 

[Torch]

I think the key words here are "War Games". I do believe these games are designed for the adversary to win. I will give you that the CCP will most likely be able to severely damage ONE carrier. The US has eleven.

AFAIK
In every Rand Corp Simulation/ Wargame the US takes severe losses but still “Wins” ( Formosa is held in trust for the USA by Taiwan, ROC)

The difficulty is always maxed up for any and all ChiCom advantages such as:

For China:
•A near endless cruise missiles, not a one failing to launch or flame out enroute. All with low CEP.


Against ROC

•Total tactical surprise, with ROC in mid callup and low level of dispersion.

•Worst case performance of all aircraft and their weapons.

•Max loss of air defense

• The immediate loss of ROC Navy.

Against USA

•Carriers out of position then sunk when they drive right up to Formosa for tactical support.

•Guam destroyed or neutralized in totality.

• Diego Garcia, extreme damage.

•Chinese submarines successful in waters near both Hawaii and Sea of Japan and Yellow Sea.

• Conservative performance of all missile defenses including THAD, individual Patriots and all PD’d

Japan

•Okinawa struck heavily and Chinese government vapor locked.

•Poor performance of Japanese F-15’s even as they are fully modernized and the most successful airframe ever built.

•Japanese Fleet combat ineffective losses and political will.

Others

Vietnam sits it out, disallowing USA Fleet and Air operations

Thailand on the fence. Disallows certain USA military actions.

The Philippines: USA bases struck and marginalized.

Simply moving the Carriers to blue waters and allowing for predictable performance of air defense, missile defense and aircraft performance results in a moderation of the extreme USA casualties.


(Opinion)

Unfortunately all scenarios without a USA decapitation strike on China (then nuclear war?) show horrific casualties in ground fighting in Taiwan. Last one I read (iirc) had tens of thousands of US Casualties in all branches.

I can find nothing authoritative and/or enlightening about USA Submarine operations against ChiComs whilst supporting the US and ROC.

Likewise, authoritative musings on heavy bomber operation against China are dearth.

 

[RiffRaff]

Japan by itself kicked chinas butt in WWII. What do you think the USA AND Japan will do to china, together!

You can't seriously be comparing the strength of China's 1945 military to their 21st century military. Same goes for the United States.

Absolutely not surprised. I've literally been saying this for years: America is priming itself to get absolutely curbstomped by China if it tries to contest the Taiwan invasion.

Shouldn't have blown all your money on 20th century relics such as aircraft carriers and fighter jets.

Alas, it seems no one at the Pentagon reads my posts.

The US could build 21 Reaper drones for the same cost of a single B-21 bomber. Carriers aren't 20th century relics, but strategic bombers are.

 

[Torch]

The US could build 21 Reaper drones for the same cost of a single B-21 bomber. Carriers aren't 20th century relics, but strategic bombers are.

Ehhh strategic bombers are incredibly useful for global power projection. They wouldn’t help any likely participants in a regional war except the USA (we have to commute the Pacific to get to the war).

Oddly the usefulness of the bombers are in the reverse of their age, unless the B21 can delivery on it’s press releases. The usefulness lies as a MRE (missile range extender).

The Best is the B52. It can launch a huge amount of ordinance from standoff range. They are slow and need escorts

The B1B’s carry an insane amount of ordinance. They are low observable while approaching the targets and if launching “stealthy” ordinance, will be long gone by discovery. Supersonic at sea level, Chinese fighter interceptions during a standoff attack are unlikely to the extreme.

B2’s That’s a big question mark. IMO they will fail to penetrate Chinese Airspace by 2027 to 2031 (yikes)
Subsonic so unlike the B1 they can’t leave the scene of the crime at the speed of heat. Probably best held in reserve to beat up non peer adversaries.

I’m completely with Riff Raff on the usefulness of the Raider in a cost benefit analysis. They will be useful to direct unjamed unmanned wingmen (LOS coms) so there is that.

 

[teekay99]

Is there a chance that this info leaked because it is misinformation? Is it designed to confirm for China what we think China thinks our weaknesses are to funnel them into a course of action we can handle? Obviously I don't really know but it seems to me this type of info doesn't get out unless someone wants it out.

 

[HoldFast]

Is there a link to the actual report instead of "The New York Times reveals..."?

 

[Torch]

we can refer to it as ROC or Chinese Taipei and it would be okay.
We referred to Guantanamo bay as American Guantanamo Bay or even Guam as American Guam

I have never heard Gitmo referred to as “American Guantanamo bay” even there.

Guam IS American Guam. It is a US territory and they are USA citizens.


But Taiwan is NOT Chinese. Hasn’t been since the late 1800’s. It was Japans. Japan surrendered to the USA and not China. The USA, as the literal owner of the Island allowed Chiang Kai-shek to govern the island as a caretaker government. Without regard to any claims made by China, the Japanese who legal owed Taiwan PRE WW2, surrendered it to the US. With the USA now owning the Island we allowed it to pass to the ROC.

In order the lawful claims to the Island would go:

ROC and its various peoples, be right of occupation, by assignment by the owner (USA).

The USA who’s lawful claim has probably lapsed now due to our post war largesse.

Japan, who was ceded the Islands by the Chang (?) dynasty by a treaty. Ceded, not seized. That is a lawful transfer.

A State of China, not The state of China. (i’m not giving them an inch. They’re gonna have to successfully argue successor state. Odds would be good that they could establish that they did as China cede it to Japan. Communist China still loses)

This is why the USA is involved and use to even station troops there until after “Nixon went to China”.

(Who knew that was going to bite us in the ass? Well everyone, but Industrialist wanted access to Chinese markets and selling out Taiwan was the price of admission. Also it was the middle of the Cold War and we thought we could drive a wedge between Russia and China. I’m sure that worked out…)


So here Ends my highly biased and no doubt factually dubious primer on “Formosa Today”

 

[NCDinosFan]

I have never heard Gitmo referred to as “American Guantanamo bay” even there.

Guam IS American Guam. It is a US territory and they are USA citizens.


But Taiwan is NOT Chinese. Hasn’t been since the late 1800’s. It was Japans. Japan surrendered to the USA and not China. The USA, as the literal owner of the Island allowed Chiang Kai-shek to govern the island as a caretaker government. Without regard to any claims made by China, the Japanese who legal owed Taiwan PRE WW2, surrendered it to the US. With the USA now owning the Island we allowed it to pass to the ROC.

In order the lawful claims to the Island would go:

ROC and its various peoples, be right of occupation, by assignment by the owner (USA).

The USA who’s lawful claim has probably lapsed now due to our post war largesse.

Japan, who was ceded the Islands by the Chang (?) dynasty by a treaty. Ceded, not seized. That is a lawful transfer.

A State of China, not The state of China. (i’m not giving them an inch. They’re gonna have to successfully argue successor state. Odds would be good that they could establish that they did as China cede it to Japan. Communist China still loses)

This is why the USA is involved and use to even station troops there until after “Nixon went to China”.

(Who knew that was going to bite us in the ass? Well everyone, but Industrialist wanted access to Chinese markets and selling out Taiwan was the price of admission. Also it was the middle of the Cold War and we thought we could drive a wedge between Russia and China. I’m sure that worked out…)


So here Ends my highly biased and no doubt factually dubious primer on “Formosa Today”

I just hope we call it Chinese Taipei because I don't want to get banned from using this site and viewing it.

 

[Snowfall]

I just hope we call it Chinese Taipei because I don't want to get banned from using this site and viewing it.

Here’s the solution Taiwan=Taiwan West Taiwan=the land ruled by the illegitimate government of the mainland some people refer to as the ROC.

 

[NCDinosFan]

Here’s the solution Taiwan=Taiwan West Taiwan=the land ruled by the illegitimate government of the mainland some people refer to as the ROC.

Chinese Taipei is Chinese Taipei.