About that, maybe here I am the more informated one.
What it is going on in Italy is simply this: NOTHING. I know our polical dynamics.
First, you have to know what the things are here. In the Parliament, the most important Party is "Movimento 5 stelle (M5S)", with 33%. This Party won the election in 2018 with an interesting programmatic platform: "Vaffanculo!", as to say "Fuck off!". I'm not joking, many "vaffa-days" were organized by the Party. The opposite Party, the Party that has the real power in Italy, is the "Partito Democratico (PD)". The M5S electoral program was "fuck off the PD! PD go home! Now we come, and we say fuck off to all that is represented by PD". The leader of the Party is Beppe Grillo, a comedian who, in his electoral harangues, said almost 1000 "fuck off!" per minute.
The other winning Party in the 2018 election, was Lega, with the leader Salvini. The programmatic platform of this Party was to be againt the EU, against the Euro, against the uncontrolled immigration. This leader is famous to post on Twitter provocative photos of himself eating Nutella or wearing sweatshirts with brave slogans. If he goes to Florence, the sign is "W Florence". If he goes to Venice, the sign is "W Venice".
Ok. All them, once having won the election, after almost one year, they went with the PD. The Covid pandemic has worsened the situation. By then, pratically every party in the Italian Parliament is part of the Gouvernement and of the majoriy. The only Party who is in the opposition is "Fratelli d'Italia (FDI)", with Giorgia Meloni as a leader. In all that time, this little party at the opposition has made absolutly nothing in order to oppose the Gouvernement.
To speak about Italian politic is very complicated and it's not even worth it. What I said is just the picture of the situation. In short words: almost 100% of the Parliament is into the Gouvernement, except an handful of really brave mad dogs.
So, what is going on is not an actually problem. In fact, yesterday, the Parlaiment has made the "vote of confidence" and the Gouvernement HAS OBTANEID the confidence, as to say the majority of voters of the Parliament.
Why? This "Italian crisis" is made by M5S, whom has, as said, the 33% of the Parliament.
So: 100% - 33% = 67% > 50%
Pratically, what is going on NOW in Italy is a mummery. In fact, technically, there is absolutely any crisis at all in progress.
Furthermore, what should be the reasons of the "crisis"? Maybe at least one of the most important things of the times we are living? Maybe the lack of gas, the sanctions against Russia that hurt our own economy? The possibility of a war? As to say: something IMPORTANT for the Country? No. The reasons are something marginal about some subsidy. Why all this? Think about what I said about the picture of the situation: M5S has betrayed all its promises: it won the election saying something, just to do exctly the contrary in a way so truly blatant to be understood as true take of a piss. In fact, in the last amminitrative election, M5S is disapperead.
So, what is really going on? The following: M5S is making a mess, just to make the people undestand that is still the Party of the "fuck off!" and Draghi is simply holding the game, because is usefull also for him that people don't really realize that, instead to be a dictatorship with one only party, we are a dictatorship with 1000 parties all of them part of the same majority.
As soon as this mummery will end, M5S will return obedient as before. 100% sure.
So, if Draghi will decide to leave, it will be not because he doesn't have a majority anymore, but ONLY if HIMSELF wants to leave. And it is not be excluded that between M5S and Draghi there is a secret deal about that. M5S "demostrates" to still be the Party of the "fuck off" and Draghi has the good reason to leave making it seem that he is not him to want it.
The REAL QUESTION SO IS THE FOLLOWING:
If Draghi wants to leave, Why he wants to leave?
The more likely scenario, is that after some mess, Draghi still remain as a Prime Minister. But if he wants to leave (and we will discover soon) I have some idea about that. In that case, it is possible that something big and serious is going to happen.