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UA-RU | DISCUSSIONS

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Arch said:
If you don't have enough soldiers to control 2000 km of a front-line and you are forced to use a light infantry (such as National Guard) instead, then it is fully reasonable to mobilize 300,000 soldiers or even more (who knows). And to start deep offensive operations in the next 2 months.
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Good answer!!!
 
dryjoy said:
Maybe nothing has changed. I suppose what I meant really was that while the Russian army appears weakened, as far as we know their nuclear weapons still work.

In terms of this latest threat, I don’t know how meaningful it is. It comes directly from Putin rather than one of his many mouthpieces, so that is different.

Also with these planned referendums, he is setting the stage to be able to claim Russia itself needs to be defended, thereby justifying any escalation he chooses, including nuclear use. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but I think this is a key change from what has been the status quo of the last few months.
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This is basically the last gamble for Putin, I dont think the West believes it. I don't really believe it either. Nukes are just too high a risk for a country that invaded on their own greedy reasonings, and then started losing. If Russia had actually been invaded from the start, there would be countries that defend it. Even their own military doctrine says they will use nukes to defend their selves (pretty much every nuclear country has the same doctrine), so you couldn't feel bad for any country that got nuked trying. But no one has ever said "I'm going to invade for my own selfish reasons and if we start to lose, we will use nukes". That's over the line, ever for so called allies like India and China who will not support it. Especially China.

But if you wanna take one positive sign; Russian social media is abuzz with angry citizens. There's also multiple protests being planned all over Russia at conscription centers today. 7 pm their time, so like 1 EST time I think. I dont think it's gonna change anything right away, but it's a start. 1420 also just released a video they made before the mobilization announcement, and the people interviewed were already pissed and calling for this to end. It's nice to see Russians are finally waking up. It seems the only supporters now are the boomers that watch the equivalent of Russian Fox News, and the far right war hawks.

But anyways, Putin is in a bad spot. 300K untrained, ill equipped troops changes nothing. He needs to hold what they got until winter (which is not likely) and once winter is here, Europeans could tire of the war because of the gas. This is where the 300K comes in...just cannon fodder. But it also allows Russia 3 months to train and prepare for a spring offensive which could turn the tide of the war. So this increases the pressure on the Ukrainians to achieve the eastern objectives as soon as possible. It's now a race to take as much as possible before winter it seems.
 
NamelessOne said:
300K untrained, ill equipped troops changes nothing.
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What you think so? Russia has enormous stockpiles of equipment, definitely more than for just 300k soldiers. Many have seen two battalions of T-62 a few months ago, but almost nobody noticed a way more T-90A and so on a few weeks ago. In my opinion, Russia has no significant issues with equipment. They have issues "here and now", at the tactical level, but not more. There were a lot of discussions that Russia is out of modern rockets, but why they don't end? I saw this expert reports in March, May, June, July, August. Russia still have modern rockets... There are rumors that Russia now produce more rockets than use against Ukraine. However, Russia still have issues with drones.
 
Arch said:
What you think so? Russia has enormous stockpiles of equipment, definitely more than for just 300k soldiers. Many have seen two battalions of T-62 a few months ago, but almost nobody noticed a way more T-90A and so on a few weeks ago. In my opinion, Russia has no significant issues with equipment. They have issues "here and now", at the tactical level, but not more. There were a lot of discussions that Russia is out of modern rockets, but why they don't end? I saw this expert reports in March, May, June, July, August. Russia still have modern rockets... There are rumors that Russia now produce more rockets than use against Ukraine. However, Russia still have issues with drones.
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Well first...even getting 300K draftees would be incredibly difficult. Look at the news now, Russian airlines have sold out of all tickets for the next few days as a ton of men are now fleeing to visa free locations. Those are the ones that can afford it.

And then take into a ccount, Russia is one of the most corrupt hell holes on Earth. There will be many draftees just giving border guards 10 bucks to slip into Uzbekistan or one of the other 'Stans to avoid the war. And what about the ones that just ignore the summons and stay home? You going to send the police after all of them? The police are just as corrupt and can be paid off. They're never going to get 300K.

But I'll be generous and say they can get about 50K. What are they going to supply them with? 70 year old rifles and tanks? Expired food rations? Do they even have any winter gear? And how do you win a war with untrained, unmotivated low morale troops?
 
NamelessOne said:
But if you wanna take one positive sign; Russian social media is abuzz with angry citizens.
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This is just my opinion, but I would not use any social media as a serious source. Why? Simply because of pro-Ukrainian users writing on behalf of Russian citizens. I'm not saying that such activities are bad, wrong and so on. This is war. But we need to be careful in this matter using such information for our analysis.
 
Across the Western media, I notice that only a few phrases from the Russian Dictator Putin's 14 minute speech are included in the Western media. In assessing your enemy, it always good to know what the enemy is telling others, as you need to also understand the enemy motivations (to STOP them) as well as your own tactics. During the threats by Al Qaeda, we regularly reviewed and assessed the statements by mass-murdering terrorist Osama Bin Laden. We did not do so to agree with or support the terrorist, but use our freedom of information to gain intelligence on the enemy. I believe there is a challenge in only having Western media snippets without context. So I am sharing the primariy "global" and "USA/West" oriented statements that I picked up from the Russian Dictator Putin's speech. Once again I reject and denounce the Dictator and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but I do think we should know what the Dictator is saying. I am not confident that "we don't need to know" as a strategic approach to fighting an enemy.

For those concerned about strategy, failing to hear the narrative that that the Dictator is telling his people, makes us unaware of what the Russian people are hearing. The Russian Dictator Putin has positioned the Ukraine war as a threat the Russian national teritorial integrity, and that the West are a significant threat to Russia.

Here is what I heard, and certainly may have words wrong/etc.

The Russia Dictator Putin: "The goal of the West is to weaken and eventually destroy our country. They did that directly back in 1991, they managed to divide the Soviet Union, and now the time has come to do the same with Russia." "These are the plans that they had been having for some time." In the Dictator Putin address he positions the Russian invasion as a protection of Donbass from "missile attacks" and "terrorism" going back to 2013, and defends his call for a Donbass "referendum" on those areas links to Ukraine. He portrays the war as "1,000 kilometer long front-line" threatening Russia. The Russia Dictator Putin identifies not just Ukraine, but the West, as the enemy: "we are fighting against... the collective West war machine." The call for partial mobilization is rationalized by the Russia Dictator Putin to protect the Russia "motherland" and Donbass "liberated territories."

The Russia Dictator Putin tells the Russian people that the West has crossed the line: "in their address against Russian policies, the West has crossed the line, we keep hearing threats against our country, against our people. Certain irresponsible politicians from the West have stated about their plans to supply long range weapons that would allow them to strike Crimea and other regions of Russia.. "terrorist attacks using the Western weapons.. using contemporary satellites (muddled here) strategic aviation UNMASS vehicles and NATO is performing the reconnaissance across the entire Eastern border." "They don't even hide it when they say Russia should be destroyed... and they should deprive our country of any sort of sovereignty and they should rob our country of everything."

"They have started nuclear blackmail. I am not just talking about attacks on the (Energoatom?) nuclear power plant that is related by the Western leaders. I am talking about the statements by high-level representatives of the NATO countries about the accessibility (?) of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia - nuclear weapons.To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to defend and protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means that we have. I am not bluffing. The citizens of Russia can be confident that we will defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country." "And to those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind patterns towards them as well. The destiny of our people is to stop those who want to dominate the world, those who want to enslave our homeland, our fatherland, and we will do that as well."

The Russia Dictator Putin has an enemy strategy, and that is to convince the Russian people that the West is seeking to threaten the sovereignty of their nation. The Dictator ties this all the way back to 1991 and dissolution of the USSR, which the Dictator also blames on the West and "dividing" the Russian people. But of course, the USSR ultimately fell due to the actions of Russian people, not the West. However, 30 years later, the Dictator may be influencing a large number of Russian people with such arguments. I think there is value in discussing this. I recommend breaking this into its own forum topic.
 
Arch said:
This is just my opinion, but I would not use any social media as a serious source. Why? Simply because of pro-Ukrainian users writing on behalf of Russian citizens. I'm not saying that such activities are bad, wrong and so on. This is war. But we need to be careful in this matter using such information for our analysis.
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I agree, however social media can be a good thing when it's backed up by a source. e.g.
[X] is happening in Russia! Source: https://respectable-news-website.com
It's a good pointer.

However, social media is a breeding ground for conspiracy theory and fake news. I take any tweet I see that isn't sourced with a big pinch of salt, in rare cases I've seen verified journalists perpetuating the rumour mill on twitter, although generally verified journalists and respectable news companies (i.e. Reuters, BBC, AP, etc...) don't spread fake news. I try to cross-reference and verify twitter posts with other sources.
 
2d8c32ae

Tu-214SR, the Russian 'Doomsday Plane'​

Tupolev Tu-214SR, a modified version of the Tu-214, is the Russian so called 'Doomsday Plane.' Outfitted with a state-of-the-art multi-intelligence payload, it was designed to provide the Russian leadership with a mobile command and control center in case of a major cataclysm or a global war.

Interesting, probably routine flight
 
Friendly Engineer said:
I agree, however social media can be a good thing when it's backed up by a source. e.g.
[X] is happening in Russia! Source: https://respectable-news-website.com
It's a good pointer.

However, social media is a breeding ground for conspiracy theory and fake news. I take any tweet I see that isn't sourced with a big pinch of salt, in rare cases I've seen verified journalists perpetuating the rumour mill on twitter, although generally verified journalists and respectable news companies (i.e. Reuters, BBC, AP, etc...) don't spread fake news. I try to cross-reference and verify twitter posts with other sources.
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Thank you. I'm agree with you that social media can be considered as a source if is backed up by some trustable information such as a photo, video or an official statement. In the rest, there are sources such as Twitter's Fuad, who makes a "loud" statements but without any proof.
 
Arch said:
I think it's a fake. Found document signed by Mr. Sorokin a few years ago. I see no differences in signature, in location of signature and stamp, distance between them. Unrealistic.

Original:
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Screenshot 2022-09-21 at 15.02.33.png
Screenshot 2022-09-21 at 15.02.43.png
Out of interest I just downloaded the Twitter image and zoomed in on the text - there's obvious compression pixelation around the 'new' text that isn't present elsewhere in the blank areas on the page (and the pixellation is constrained to perfect rectangles, not hugging individual character shapes) I'd expect to see this on an old document had been used with new text overlaid in Photoshop. 99% convinced this is fake.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
However, social media is a breeding ground for conspiracy theory and fake news.
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Twitter 80-90% of posts are lies and misrepresentation. Aimed at the emotional reaction of those who read it. This husk has to be cleaned up. Then, from the small pieces that remain, you can roughly put together a general picture of what is going on. This is the analysis.
But if someone takes all the loud tweets and posts them here in a flood (as one well-known and extremely impressionable person here has been doing for a long time), then everything here will be littered with the same information garbage.
 
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