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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS

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Xenomorph said:
No, it does not. I had a similar question related to Ukraine's evacuations early the war. Per the book, the evacuation would be between the nuclear powers. I would broaden that, but still would suggest it should be thought of in terms of the belligerents.
Third parties asking their citizens to get out is not strongly relevant to escalation ladder.

If Belarus orders a mass evacuation of Belarussians, then perhaps can revisit.

Edit to add: Number 17 is also 20% of population. . . . There is no way that threshold is getting hit by Chinese and Kazak warnings.
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It’s something to watch also reading your post it occurred to me that escalation models are by nature limited in flexibility. There built for possible perceived threats. But as we have seen there is no in-depth modeling for this particular situation.
The moves could be in relation to a conventional escalation.
At this point I still see it as a feint to divide Ukraines attention and forces.
 
watcher11 said:
So with this call to leave or evacuate does this count as number 17 on the escalation ladder now?
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No. They are expecting an escalation in the war from Belarus. Russia is sending troops there, probably with the intent of a major blitz attack across the border to take Kyiv. (This is my personal theory of why they're there.)
 
RiffRaff said:
No. They are expecting an escalation in the war from Belarus. Russia is sending troops there, probably with the intent of a major blitz attack across the border to take Kyiv. (This is my personal theory of why they're there.)
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If Putin tries this then he has truly lost it in my eyes. The more likely scenario is they are there as a diversion and defensive purposes in the event the air war escalates or Russia goes nuclear to bring NATO in.
 
Irag8er said:
www.independent.co.uk

UK ‘likely already wargaming’ response to potential Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine

Experts believe Vladimir Putin is planning how he could escalate the conflict in Ukraine following humbling defeats
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
One one expect so.
Click to expand...

I don't. It actually doesn't make any sense to me the concept of "escalate the conflict" in response of "humbling defeats". If one is losing, he doesn't escalate, but he de-escalates instead! So, if one is winning, for a kind of symmetrical logic, is he supposed to find compromises in peace talks in which to make concessions?
No: i f Russia is going to escalate, it is because it doesn't think to be losing.
 
bartok said:
I don't. It actually doesn't make any sense to me the concept of "escalate the conflict" in response of "humbling defeats". If one is losing, he doesn't escalate, but he de-escalates instead! So, if one is winning, for a kind of symmetrical logic, is he supposed to find compromises in peace talks in which to make concessions?
No: i f Russia is going to escalate, it is because it doesn't think to be losing.
Click to expand...
My point was that one would expect UK, US etc. to war game for such events. It’s only prudent to have contingency plans in place . Not saying it WILL happen, but the quickly changing events mean it COULD happen.
“Semper Paratus”
 
Belarus build up scare.
I’m not really sure what’s behind this but if we all will remember this is a repeat of same thing done in may and June.
Build up to nothing. Mobilize troops move them around, claim this, whisper that.
It’s curious, did nothing in early summer either.
Is it just the moving around of cardboard armies to show any activity. Or to show actual buildup.
Soon there will be breaking news that nuclear capable iskanders are possibly being considered for delivery to Belarus.

Oh and it appears the Super secret super superior Belgrod sub is back in port, for a while it seems.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1581671176946216960
Wasn’t it just a week and half ago it was going out to strike at the heart of the Atlantic hegemony.

Sometimes it hard to know if it’s nato or Russian sources stirring the pot to cause concern and fear.

We are now watching a slow costly slugfest across a mostly flat, wet, commercial agricultural topography.
It’s brutal and it’s for the distant observer boring. So there will be lots of sensational reporting about this or that to keep both sides involved and invested in a desired outcome.

Russias troops as they are compressed back towards Russia will become more concentrated along the front. Especially with the “300,000” recruits sent to the front.
Winter is coming and it will be miserable on both sides. Worse on Russias side because for most of them their heart just isn’t in it.
Don’t expect a quick resolution now.
There might have been one but that windows passed. Troops will wallow in the cold while politicians talk of talking.

This isn’t a critique of Ukrainian failure it’s just the nature of land warfare.

Ukraine still has the advantage because it’s sponsors are it seems fully vested in grinding the Russian military down to a nub.
What’s that I see Russias resorted to buying short range rocket systems from Iran. So much for the vaunted Russian military juggernaut.

This didn’t have to be about systemic Russian failures, but Russia has inadvertently made it about that very thing.

There is a hidden problem or risk to the west as well. Becoming short sided and reluctant to continue the support they’ve poured so much into. To continue it will be costly and difficult financially and economically. But to withdraw support will be equally disruptive in the end as well.
Don’t expect a quick neat end to this conventional regional war. Just more day to day grinding reports of towns recovered armor destroyed and war dead.
I don’t like it certainly didn’t want to see it happen but here it is and words are cheap when blood has been spilled and homes burnt.
 
Rumor is that Russia has gathered over a half million troops for its offensive and has placed over 1200 tanks near the boarder for one leg of the push. NATO is trying to help Ukraine to rapidly conscript new soldiers.
 
Seriously said:
Belarus build up scare.
I’m not really sure what’s behind this but if we all will remember this is a repeat of same thing done in may and June.
Build up to nothing. Mobilize troops move them around, claim this, whisper that.
It’s curious, did nothing in early summer either.
Is it just the moving around of cardboard armies to show any activity. Or to show actual buildup.
Soon there will be breaking news that nuclear capable iskanders are possibly being considered for delivery to Belarus.

Oh and it appears the Super secret super superior Belgrod sub is back in port, for a while it seems.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1581671176946216960
Wasn’t it just a week and half ago it was going out to strike at the heart of the Atlantic hegemony.

Sometimes it hard to know if it’s nato or Russian sources stirring the pot to cause concern and fear.

We are now watching a slow costly slugfest across a mostly flat, wet, commercial agricultural topography.
It’s brutal and it’s for the distant observer boring. So there will be lots of sensational reporting about this or that to keep both sides involved and invested in a desired outcome.

Russias troops as they are compressed back towards Russia will become more concentrated along the front. Especially with the “300,000” recruits sent to the front.
Winter is coming and it will be miserable on both sides. Worse on Russias side because for most of them their heart just isn’t in it.
Don’t expect a quick resolution now.
There might have been one but that windows passed. Troops will wallow in the cold while politicians talk of talking.

This isn’t a critique of Ukrainian failure it’s just the nature of land warfare.

Ukraine still has the advantage because it’s sponsors are it seems fully vested in grinding the Russian military down to a nub.
What’s that I see Russias resorted to buying short range rocket systems from Iran. So much for the vaunted Russian military juggernaut.

This didn’t have to be about systemic Russian failures, but Russia has inadvertently made it about that very thing.

There is a hidden problem or risk to the west as well. Becoming short sided and reluctant to continue the support they’ve poured so much into. To continue it will be costly and difficult financially and economically. But to withdraw support will be equally disruptive in the end as well.
Don’t expect a quick neat end to this conventional regional war. Just more day to day grinding reports of towns recovered armor destroyed and war dead.
I don’t like it certainly didn’t want to see it happen but here it is and words are cheap when blood has been spilled and homes burnt.
Click to expand...
Could not agree with you more.
 
As much as I support the nato efforts to aid Russia. Such a blatant sanctioning of Iran with this excuse would be cynical at best. Besides that their just going to ignore it.
Ukrainian officials are calling on the EU to punish Iran with sanctions for supplying Russia with Shahed-136 drones, known as "kamikazes," which have increasingly been used to terrorize their country in a spate of deadly attacks.
Irag8er said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1582053886466043915

Ukrainian officials are calling on the EU to punish Iran with sanctions for supplying Russia with Shahed-136 drones, known as "kamikazes," which have increasingly been used to terrorize their country in a spate of deadly attacks.
Click to expand...

The question that came to my mind when I saw Israel stepping into the public commitment on support and intel to Ukraine. What other Mideast nations not just Israel are thinking and contemplating seeing Iranian missile tech being used and spotlighted on the world stage.
Want to worry about a expansion of this war. Watch for inexplicable explosions coming to an Iranian military and or manufacturing site near you.

Actually with all the protest and unrest in Iran some stratigic explosions might be called for, yes I’m being sarcastic.
 
Seriously said:
As much as I support the nato efforts to aid Russia. Such a blatant sanctioning of Iran with this excuse would be cynical at best. Besides that their just going to ignore it.
Ukrainian officials are calling on the EU to punish Iran with sanctions for supplying Russia with Shahed-136 drones, known as "kamikazes," which have increasingly been used to terrorize their country in a spate of deadly attacks.


The question that came to my mind when I saw Israel stepping into the public commitment on support and intel to Ukraine. What other Mideast nations not just Israel are thinking and contemplating seeing Iranian missile tech being used and spotlighted on the world stage.
Want to worry about a expansion of this war. Watch for inexplicable explosions coming to an Iranian military and or manufacturing site near you.

Actually with all the protest and unrest in Iran some stratigic explosions might be called for, yes I’m being sarcastic.
Click to expand...
Good points. This all ties in with the big dust up between US and Saudi . Saudia Arabia is in a proxie war with Iran, and were counting on military defense from US if that ever goes hot. Now they’re turning to more of an alliance with Russia, who at this time at least, is allied with Iran. Makes for an uncomfortable threesome.
 
I’m just curious what alls opinion is on the possibility of Iran selling/sending missiles to Russia and if you all feel there will be a nato response?
 
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