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UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

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Socom7 said:
Why, though? Russia feels it's strategically winning, and I'm inclined to agree.
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Strategically they are not winning. Neither has Ukraine won strategically as Russia still controls a good chunk of their country. Ukraine is winning the a staggering amount of the tactical battles that are taking place. And meanwhile The frontline has been a sludge fest of slow pushes and small gains by Russia, for the last 2 years. So sure if we are talking about this strategy as if it's a good one then yes, they are strategically winning and will win in about 15 years after depleting their entire reserves of able bodied manpower. And a lot can happen in that long period of time for Ukraine. This excursion for Russia has been a strategic pitfall and continues to be, they continue to not field adequate amounts of defensive troops on any of their borders except for Ukraine, and are losing their more advanced vehicles and weapons at a pace that outpaces production. That is not strategically sound, even from a Old school soviet POV. If Russia was producing enough to offput it's losses completely and keep a steady supply of weapons and technology to its forward deployed units while also being able to create new mechanized/specialized units then yes, I would say they are strategically winning. However in it's current state Russia is looking at numerous net negatives on their initial goals of taking all of Ukraine and removing the Ukrainian government from power, and their stocks of weaponry are nowhere near enough to fight a war/Insurgency in Ukraine while also being strategically able to defend or attack against NATO. It is poor on everyone's part to think we can read Putin's mind. All we can do is analyze the facts and statistics that we have seen so far and hypothesis what could happen. TLDR: I disagree with your statement that Russia feels that it is strategically winning, and I disagree on the statistical level that Russia is winning this conflict. Everything I have seen from general public and milbloggers in Russia are generally displeased with the state of the war and see Putin as weak. That is a very dangerous place of mind to be for a dictator.
 
7gtz said:
Because Putin has not pressed the red button yet. If Putin wanted to conduct a nuclear strike, there is nothing stopping him.
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Well, yeah there is. Putin, like Trump, does not push the button himself. He merely gives the order. It is up to subordinates to actually go through with it.

Of course they will, especially on Russia's side where their people are getting spoon fed propaganda. It isn't like the West where almost any nuclear officer can look up where are are in terms of WWIII.
 
7gtz said:
Hard disagree here. Putin, just like Trump, has no barriers to ordering a nuclear strike. Both countries operate at a very high level of nuclear readiness.
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Putin has even more authority, and proverbial legislative barriers from him launching nuclear weapons are just to keep it all looking dandy on paper for sanction purposes. I mean are we really arguing that Putin isn't a dictator with an iron fist on dissenting opinions? Remember Shoigu's demotion? Or Putin blowing up Yevgenys plane? Who's going to get in the way of that man launching nuclear weapons unless they are pulling the lever themselves?
 
Socom7 said:
He does in the sense that he is presented with a dossier by some people in uniform who say "this is what we think we should do" - and approves (or rejects) it. At the present juncture I very much doubt that the dossier says "we should go nuclear".

I could be wrong, of course.
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Also it has been leaked numerous times that Putin is directly in control of military planning and oversight of the tactical maneuvers regarding the Invasion of Ukraine. I don't think it is as much him receiving a dossier anymore as much as it is him demanding information that would not usually be provided to him in fear of reprisal, and taking those matters into his own hands.
 
Socom7 said:
Why, though? Russia feels it's strategically winning, and I'm inclined to agree.
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Over three years of one the world's few superpowers unable to defeat a much smaller country on its own border, and they feel like they're winning??? Not by anyone else's definition of the word. Russia might not be losing, but they certainly aren't wining.

Socom7 said:
And as for a putative nuclear response - it doesn't really hinge upon how Putin feels on any given day. Like any entrenched nuclear state, Russia has procedures and protocols. Putin is pretty crazy, but I don't believe he's crazy enough to override those. At the end of the day, the shots are called by the Russian General Staff while Putin simply signs on the dotted line. I'm gonna say you're underestimating the immense inertia that's baked into the system...
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Nope. Putin has sole launch authority over Russia's nuclear arsenal, just like the US President does. No two-man rule, no staff decisions, do not pass Go, do not collect $200. Now, that being said, is it possible men in the silos might not turn their keys? Is it possible the sub commanders will refuse the launch orders? Is it possible the bomber crews might change their minds just before they release their weapons? Yes, to all of that. These are issues that the US has as well.

But the launch order comes from Putin and nobody else.
 
Onoya said:
Because Putin isn't a total idiot, he knows that using nuke will at worst put our civilization to stone age, or at best cause big big issue for Russia.

I'm sure he's trying to win that without nukes, that's why he haven't used them yet
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Not really. Putin can hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons and he stands a very high chance of not receiving a nuclear response from anyone. No matter how much the West wants to support Ukraine, ultimately they are not part of NATO, and NATO is not going to launch nuclear weapons against Russia over a country that is not a member of the alliance.

The only way it turns into a global exchange is if someone makes a mistake.
 
RiffRaff said:
Not really. Putin can hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons and he stands a very high chance of not receiving a nuclear response from anyone. No matter how much the West wants to support Ukraine, ultimately they are not part of NATO, and NATO is not going to launch nuclear weapons against Russia over a country that is not a member of the alliance.

The only way it turns into a global exchange is if someone makes a mistake.
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Nobody is trading their capital for <insert name> in the Ukraine. Just not going to happen with one. Especially after today. I think the collective world outside of the west/NATO would figure it’s par for the course, and not really care.

I think the main reason Putin should not is that it doesn’t advance him militarily in the Ukraine. They have seized land and are on defense (though them would not admit it).
 
Anyway there will be a retaliation.
Credibly a conventional one follower by nuclear saber ratting from Putin, something that we have been missing for a long time.
Would this have happened in 2022, it would be a major concern.
Now not at all.
Putin using a nuke? It would immediately lead to losing most if not all of his “creations”.
Putin knows that he won’t start a nuclear exchange with the west for 1 nuke…but he knows that he would lose all of his partners, starting from the BRICS just to mention one, a project where he invested a lot of effort in trying to build something that could be comparable to the US/USD and EU/EUR entities.
The diplomatic effect would be tens of times bigger globally than what it could have been if in November 2022 he decided to use a nuke.
 
Peter Griffin said:
Excuse my french, but what the actual fuck?
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That was condolences for noncombat that became casualties. They deserve sympathy, especially considering that the US is not in the war. Collateral damage happens and it sucks. Sometimes like with the bridge it’s unavoidable because a train happened to come along/ be there. It’s always a sad day.
 
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