UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

[Sentry]

Each day, more Ukrainians are killed. The more delay, the more lives are lost.

 

[Snowfall]

A Russian Shahed strike drone lingered in Polish airspace for nearly two and a half hours before ultimately crashing.
This was revealed through an analysis by Ukrainian monitoring groups.
During its flight, official reports confirm that Polish air surveillance systems failed to detect the drone at any stage of its journey.

Based on the monitoring data, experts were able to trace the approximate route of the drone, which, on the night of August 19-20, flew across Ukraine’s Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Lviv regions.

It should be noted that such drones are equipped with jamming-resistant navigation systems, and there are only two possible scenarios under which it could have entered Poland:
– It was intentionally directed there.
– An internal malfunction occurred.
Even if electronic warfare (EW) systems were used to disrupt its flight, once leaving the area of operation, the drone’s autopilot would redirect it back to its target.

Therefore, even if the drone had entered Polish airspace due to the effects of electronic warfare (EW), it would have automatically redirected itself to its target, with the onboard computer recalculating its route to the pre-programmed objective.
As a result, there remains a high probability that the drone’s operators had set a target within NATO territory.

Shahed Drone Spends Over Two and a Half Hours in Polish Airspace

A Russian Shahed strike drone lingered in Polish airspace for nearly two and a half hours before ultimately crashing

militarnyi.com

Are we really pretending Russia has good enough guidance systems that there’s zero chance a drone could miss its target? That’s effectively what this is arguing. What’s more likely, the Russians fired hundreds of drones and occasionally one veers off course and lands in an open field, or they deliberately bombed an open field in Poland?

 

[Sentry]

Are we really pretending Russia has good enough guidance systems that there’s zero chance a drone could miss its target? That’s effectively what this is arguing. What’s more likely, the Russians fired hundreds of drones and occasionally one veers off course and lands in an open field, or they deliberately bombed an open field in Poland?

1) It gives them plausible deniability to say exactly what you're saying while still testing NATO's resolve. This answered two key questions for Russia: one, if NATO air defences can even detect low-flying Shahed drones (NO), and two, how NATO would react to a minor incursions such as this.

2) It was 100km deep into Poland. That is a long long distance for a drone to just veer off course. Yes, Russia has guidance systems good enough to not miss their target by hundreds of miles.

 

[Snowfall]

I am impatiently waiting. Trump almost always comes out ahead whether in court, to court or in negotiations.

That said I’m losing patience waiting for the unpleasantness in the Ukraine to end or for Trump to unleash hell on the Russia.

Trump has chickened out on every single threat he’s ever made against Russia. I said from the start give him the benefit of the doubt to at least try something, but it’s abundantly clear he’s a coward on Russia. It’s not even worth giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore.

 

[Snowfall]

1) It gives them plausible deniability to say exactly what you're saying while still testing NATO's resolve. This answered two key questions for Russia: one, if NATO air defences can even detect low-flying Shahed drones (NO), and two, how NATO would react to a minor incursions such as this.

2) It was 100km deep into Poland. That is a long long distance for a drone to just veer off course. Yes, Russia has guidance systems good enough to not miss their target by hundreds of miles.

If a drone loses internal guidance it will fly in whatever direction it was going until it runs out of fuel that’s how it ends up 100s of kms off target. I don’t discount the possibility they could use it to test NATO resolve but every time they do it nato gets a little more on edge and comes up with new ways to monitor. If Russia did this once id say maybe but this is at least the forth or fifth time this has happened and NATO will have capabilities to track these incursions by the end of next year. At this point I’m considering this a gps error, if Russia really wanted to test NATO resolve one of these drones would’ve hit a target of value.

 

[Sentry]

Russia really wanted to test NATO resolve one of these drones would’ve hit a target of value.

This is several steps up in the current "escalation ladder". Step by step, we're getting there. Have you noticed the "errors" or "mistakes" have been ramping up in terms of severity? First airspace violations, then drone violations, then shots at the border raising alarm in NATO countries, now drones openly bombing NATO territory (even if very minor).

 

[Sentry]

Of course the drone malfunctioned, just like that drone which malfunctioned to fly into Latvia, over the capital city, military objects and crashed in military training facility. What's the chance the drone 'hits' an irrelevant barn ... a barn which is on maps and sat imagery. This was most likely a test to see if those drones are able to navigate inside NATO territory. There is no way this was a malfunction, drones have way too many backups for that. Navigation systems have been perfected over 30-40 years. Too much of a coincidence.

The drone uses sat navigation for correction (multiple or all of them), and the drone also uses local mobile networks (if equipped). It can use it both passively (just checking the signal from the towers) or actively. Jammed drones are forced to the ground, not allowed to fly into NATO airspace undetected (& without Ukraine even informing Poland)! There is also old school triangulation ... all you need is tower ID and signal strength and map of the towers. This is old tech & most countries have perfected it.

 

[Publius]

FFS no one even mentioned Trump? Seems like you might have some of the Trump Compulsive Obsessive Disorder? You might want to get that checked out Oreid you keep mentioning Trump in threads that are completely unrelated to him...

It is the sheer panic of “Russia Russia Russia” invading Europe and the absolute certainty of it. That sparked my Hal turner /TDS comparison.

So much of this political narrative directly links any Russian expansionist ambitions to the mythical collusion between Trump and Russia. If not purposefully then assuredly by ignorance and incompetence.

It does not take a long or exhaustive memory search of post by members speaking on these two issue, collusion/russian aggression. To recognize that the two propositions are intertwined and that many have directly linked Russias current and future ambitions with President Trump aiding and abetting Russias.

So there is your link between the infamous Mr. Turner- future Russia land grabs, and TDS.

If it’s to tenuous you have my apologies. But I stand by it

 

[Publius]

You do realize that by invoking TDS you are effectively declaring that people who disagree with you are mentally ill?

Look up the definition of "derangement" if you don't believe me.

I personally don't care - you're not on my private list of people capable of insulting me - but others may rightfully take offense. It's also against forum guidelines, and tbh it's just poor form...

You also know full well that labeling is used liberally in the political world and not necessarily accurately.

It’s when years long congressional investigations and special prosecutor’s grind along looking to prop up political labeling/narratives, like say insurrection or treason.

That is when we have left the world of political muckraking and entered the world of institutional political persecution and attempts at silencing of opposition candidates.

 

[Deleted account]

You also know full well that labeling is used liberally in the political world and not necessarily accurately.

If you believe your labeling has been inaccurate, then the right thing to do would be to simply apologize and resolve to do better.

But let's be honest; very few people are mentally capable of doing that. The natural reaction is simply to make up excuses for one's own rude behavior. Which is how I interpret paragraphs #2 and #3 of your reply.

 

[Deleted account]

But Trump isn't letting Ukraine go on the offense either. So Russia has absolutely no incentive to end the war on anything but their own terms.

None of what is currently happening could remotely be regarded as "peace talks", and obviously no peace is going to ensue.

It's all just tripe for the masses.

 

[Snowfall]

This is several steps up in the current "escalation ladder". Step by step, we're getting there. Have you noticed the "errors" or "mistakes" have been ramping up in terms of severity? First airspace violations, then drone violations, then shots at the border raising alarm in NATO countries, now drones openly bombing NATO territory (even if very minor).

This isn’t really a new thing though and it hasn’t been increasing. Remember when the missile blew up in Poland and killed someone in 2022? Or the same year when the drone crashed in Romania? Spillover happens in war.

Navigation systems have been perfected over 30-40 years.

i think you’re overestimating gps capabilities. Computers freeze, crash, and fail all the time.

The drone uses sat navigation for correction (multiple or all of them), and the drone also uses local mobile networks (if equipped). It can use it both passively (just checking the signal from the towers) or actively. Jammed drones are forced to the ground, not allowed to fly into NATO airspace undetected (& without Ukraine even informing Poland)! There is also old school triangulation ... all you need is tower ID and signal strength and map of the towers. This is old tech & most countries have perfected it.

again stuff breaks, if the computer controlling the drones guidance fails, you essentially have a drone set on a course with nothing controlling it until it runs out of fuel and crashes. These drones are pretty crudely built so they can be built cheap and quick, not exactly the pinnacle of technology.

 

[Sentry]

This isn’t really a new thing though and it hasn’t been increasing. Remember when the missile blew up in Poland and killed someone in 2022? Or the same year when the drone crashed in Romania? Spillover happens in war.

i think you’re overestimating gps capabilities. Computers freeze, crash, and fail all the time.

again stuff breaks, if the computer controlling the drones guidance fails, you essentially have a drone set on a course with nothing controlling it until it runs out of fuel and crashes. These drones are pretty crudely built so they can be built cheap and quick, not exactly the pinnacle of technology.

see the thing is, there isn't just one computer. there's multiple backups and failsafes and the chances of everything going haywire at once, with the drone then proceeding to conveniently fly UP into NATO airspace and land in Poland is astronomically low.

 

[Deleted account]

see the thing is, there isn't just one computer. there's multiple backups and failsafes and the chances of everything going haywire at once, with the drone then proceeding to conveniently fly UP into NATO airspace and land in Poland is astronomically low.

Those are cheap, mass-produced drones without much in the way of failsafe mechanisms, and yes, Ukraine has GPS jammers too. We've already seen multiple instances of Russian drones crashing or exploding in Belarus, and it's diffcult to belive that was on purpose. Hence, I wouldn't entirely discount the loss-of-control scenario.

That said, I still belive an intentional provocation is more likely - given the current political circumstances.

 

[Torch]

Each day, more Ukrainians are killed. The more delay, the more lives are lost.

That’s on Russia and Putin specifically. Deaths are no one else’s fault. Being angry is ok but you need to put the blame squarely on the aggressor.

If people are trying to help that’s great, but every single Ukrainian hurt or killed (and also over 1 million Russian Soldiers are wounded and scarred for life) all because of one man.

 

[william]

Trump has chickened out on every single threat he’s ever made against Russia. I said from the start give him the benefit of the doubt to at least try something, but it’s abundantly clear he’s a coward on Russia. It’s not even worth giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore.

Because President Trump won't enter into direct combat with russia he is a coward. Please! When has the USA or Europe entered into direct combat with Russia in the past?

Soviet invasion of Poland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Occupation of the Baltic states - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

First Chechen War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russo-Georgian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Should have let Patton loose in Russia at the end of WWII and MacArthur loose in china in the Korean war. IMO
I could see the headlines if tomorrow President Trump ordered the 101st and 82nd into Ukraine.

 

[william]

see the thing is, there isn't just one computer. there's multiple backups and failsafes and the chances of everything going haywire at once, with the drone then proceeding to conveniently fly UP into NATO airspace and land in Poland is astronomically low.

The US or Nato is not going to go to war with russia because one drone blew up a field in Poland. Intentional or not. IMO

 

[Peter Griffin]

We would have already been hearing the sirens if we were. This will pass and Trump is probably hoping it does because it makes us look weak, when they are simultaneously blowing up one of our factories in Ukraine. They want to blur the borders so more "accidental" strikes like this can occur IMO.

 

[Peter Griffin]

If we really wanted to be funny we would 'accidentally' fly some mq-9 reaper drones over Kaliningrad.

 

[Torch]

Are we really pretending Russia has good enough guidance systems that there’s zero chance a drone could miss its target? That’s effectively what this is arguing. What’s more likely, the Russians fired hundreds of drones and occasionally one veers off course and lands in an open field, or they deliberately bombed an open field in Poland?

I’m not upset at all with the factory getting hit. It was definitely a legitimate target. If we we didn’t want to chance it, it should have been safely built in Poland….