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Venezuela & Columbia | US Kinetic Indicators & Warnings | Aug. 28th/Dec 4th, 2025 | | DISCUSSIONS

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A Russian Air Force Il-62M landing in Venezuela and sitting there for days is not tourism.

That kind of aircraft does long haul state missions, senior delegation moves, and payloads you do not declare. It is the same profile Russia has used in Syria and other client theaters to quietly move advisors, comms teams, and sometimes high end kit in low volume.

That does not automatically mean weapons were delivered. It does mean Russia is physically present on the ground in a country you believe is about to get hit by the United States. That is exactly how a crisis turns from "regional strike package" into "power confrontation with nuclear shadow."

⚠️➡️In other words, that tail basically drags Venezuela into our nuclear threat scope whether we like it or not.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry
Speculating here, hopefully those aircraft are taking things out that shouldn't be there, witch the US found out about.
 
Yep. Still not going to touch the civil war topics anymore with a 1000000000 ft pole. Some of you all really need to step the fuck back and breath a little bit. Shit is serious potatoes but any discussion that is devolving to calls for violence, should be stopped and your emotions shouldn't be aired out on a public forum. Use a bit of common sense people, and we have to at LEAST keep the political topics relevant to VENEZUELA and not emotionally charge every sentence or result to saying we are all just going to kill eachother. Quite frankly, it's pathetic behavior, and as much as I respect everyone's right to share their opinion, I think there is a fine line of sharing an opinion and sharing hateful rhetoric geared to illicit a toxic response in return. Not hard to proofread your comments before hitting post, and take a minute to really think if it is going to benefit a discussion with a new perspective or dilute your position and cause chaos. Plenty of good takes have been clouded by political nonsense or petty personal snips and quips. Kind of why I have taken a step back from the forums.
 
I have always been brutally honest on my foreign policy views. I don't beat around the bush.

The world isn't black and white. Yes it sucks we fight wars over 💩 like oil. But we have too protect our energy sources and just as importantly our allies energy sources.

Protecting our energy sources is just as important if not more than securing our food production/security! Without energy how do you make things in today's world let alone cheaply for that matter....

➡️
Energy is literally the only and key driver of every country, it's stability, progress, and prosperity. Almost single handedly.

Sorry reality sucks? Why I am realist. Not a DEM. Not GOP. Not Independent. I am a Realist.

Morals? Opinions? They take a back seat. Facts and reality only things that matters. Reality is, we can't afford nor let our allies afford to lose Guyana.
My opinion here is not a endorsement nor a indictment on current administration. Just laying out why this is happening and REGARDLESS of US administration in power would hope would prevent a dictator from seizing our and our allies oil supplies which again energy literally determines everyday life right down to every little aspect of your life.
 
@NuclearID Don't know if this was posted but it will be interesting to see if Cuban support becomes more solid depending on any potential escalation.
Up until today I have ignored entirely and skipped through all Venezuela reports or information until today when I saw a Russian cargo craft landed/stayed for a week in Venezuela today and apparently all month (more than one).

➡️In other words, that tail basically drags Venezuela into our nuclear threat scope whether we like it or not as soon as Russian cargo craft started landing in Venezuela.
 
TO BE CLEAR TO @EVERYONE I WILL NOT BE REPORTING ON VENEZUELA STILL.

Will only be covering Russian transport. Will only cover Venezuela developments until kinetic actions actually take place between factions directly, i.e, state against state.

I already cover a lot (only nuclear threats). And up until these Russian flights. This is/was zero risk nuclear threat and still is IMHO but cannot rule it out entirely anymore saddly.
 
I'm absolutely sickened by this. I had a research trip planned to Colombia in February and I decided to cancel it. I'm not risking my life over the ego of a wannabe dictator. Perhaps he never considered what would happen with trade and commerce if he attacked a major non-NATO ally like Colombia?
Well that likely has more to do with this.
The president of a foreign nation comes to your nation and exhorts their military to disobey its current president.

What would we call something like this years ago.

Or that President Petro has also been linked to the cartels.

Or that numerous people on Petro’s orbit have been linked to the cartels and appointed to his government.

Petro was a member of M-19 which was responsible for the 1985 seizing of the ministry of justice which resulted in 100 dead including 11 justices.

Recently there was also an increasing level of calls for violence directed at Uribe from supporters of Petro on social media (sound familiar)
Although Petro has not been tied to Uribe’s assassination he was a major opponent of Petro.


The cartel of the suns is a distribution network in Venezuela ran mostly by military officials and high ranking members of Gov which is responsible for increasing flow of cocaine out of Columbia.


So we shouldn’t be surprised that Columbia has been an outspoken opponent of Trump and his Latin American policies. Because that is exactly what he has been. Nor I think should we be surprised that Petro has become the focus of US drug interdiction because in Latin American terms the fact that Petro is linked to the cartels just as Maduro has been linked is a done deal.


On a completely other topic of Tren de Aragua gangs in the US. We’re told today that TdA is of no real impact to US criminal activity.
Yet last year before Trump won the elections TdA was a significant growing concern in the US with drugs and human trafficking.

Was Venezuela complicit in sending TdA members to the US? That’s tough to prove at this point.
But TdA so controled the prison in Venezuela that was home to TdA the leader of TdA was the defacto warden of the prison. And when Venezuelan forces to took the prison the leader of TdA who was a prisoner there was “out on self leave” WETF that means.

I’m sorry about your trip, truly I am.
What I don’t understand is why would we highlight Trump as a wannabe dictator when there are genuine dictators and past terrorist members facilitating the flow of drugs to our nation.
Are illegal hard drugs now no longer a concern for the US that we do nothing but ineffective boarder interdictions.
Is human trafficking so in important to us that we ignore it as well?
 
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Yep. Still not going to touch the civil war topics anymore with a 1000000000 ft pole. Some of you all really need to step the fuck back and breath a little bit. Shit is serious potatoes but any discussion that is devolving to calls for violence, should be stopped and your emotions shouldn't be aired out on a public forum. Use a bit of common sense people, and we have to at LEAST keep the political topics relevant to VENEZUELA and not emotionally charge every sentence or result to saying we are all just going to kill eachother. Quite frankly, it's pathetic behavior, and as much as I respect everyone's right to share their opinion, I think there is a fine line of sharing an opinion and sharing hateful rhetoric geared to illicit a toxic response in return. Not hard to proofread your comments before hitting post, and take a minute to really think if it is going to benefit a discussion with a new perspective or dilute your position and cause chaos. Plenty of good takes have been clouded by political nonsense or petty personal snips and quips. Kind of why I have taken a step back from the forums.
Could not have said it better myself. Political ANALYSIS as it is relevant to the topic of the thread is fine in the thread. Political OPINION goes into the Politics Forum and stays there. Everyone already knows I have a low tolerance for the hyperpartisan bullcrap, so I recommend following those two simple guidelines.

If you are in doubt as to whether a comment is analysis or opinion, then it's probably opinion.
 
They didn’t help Iran, they didn’t help Syria, they didn’t help Armenia, they’re not helping Venezuela.
Agreed. Hopefully... Though this would be a good way for Putin to give Trump the middle finger for the new sanctions by giving Venezuela something capable of hitting... Say... A aircraft carrier? Or worse, CONUS?

I live in Florida you know. Last thing I want is poorly guided and poorly made missiles from Russia used by Venezuela raining down inaccurately over my state or house for that matter.
 
Agreed. Hopefully... Though this would be a good way for Putin to give Trump the middle finger for the new sanctions by giving Venezuela something capable of hitting... Say... A aircraft carrier? Or worse, CONUS?

I live in Florida you know. Last thing I want is poorly guided and poorly made missiles from Russia used by Venezuela raining down inaccurately over my state or house for that matter.
Yeah I can’t see them doing that, for starters I think it would encourage the US to launch a full scale ground invasion and not stop until they hang Maduro in the streets. I also still think Russia believes they have some of relationship with Trump and won’t do too much to destroy it.
 

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar says she is not aware of the reason why members of the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force have been placed on high alert, with soldiers and coast guard officers ordered to report to their bases this evening.

The Prime Minister however urged citizens to remain calm, stating that she had no information of any imminent strikes occurring within the region.

Speaking to members of the media today shortly after news broke that the TTDF had been moved to a State One Level alert, Persad-Bissessar said she had no information and would find out more.
So she’s not aware of what’s going on with the military of her own nation? Does she think people are that stupid?
 
for starters I think it would encourage the US to launch a full scale ground invasion and not stop until they hang Maduro in the streets.
Well. That's exactly something Putin and particularly China want. A bogged down and distracted America caught up in some jungle war blowing through whatever stocks we have left of SMART munitions...

Just because you don't like it... Which I don't either... However it is a possibility if not just for this very reason you listed. That's exactly what Putin and Xi would want which is Trump to get emotional after a hit to CONUS or Aircraft Carrier and go all in on Venezuela. Wear down our inventory even more and spread ours thinner across the world.
 
Well. That's exactly something Putin and particularly China want. A bogged down and distracted America caught up in some jungle war blowing through whatever stocks we have left of SMART munitions...

Just because you don't like it... Which I don't either... However it is a possibility if not just for this very reason you listed. That's exactly what Putin and Xi would want which is Trump to get emotional after a hit to CONUS or Aircraft Carrier and go all in on Venezuela. Wear down our inventory even more and spread ours thinner across the world.
To be one hundred percent honest, if the Venezuelans took out a U.S. aircraft carrier I wouldn’t put it outside of the realm of possibility the United States nuking Caracas. However I think the odds of Venezuela having the capacity to hit a U.S. aircraft carrier are similar to the odds of me finding a billion dollars in my bed. The U.S. could roll through Venezuela in short order if necessary, particularly because the current administration I’m sure would not care about civilian casualties.

Again I see these all as low probability scenarios, and instead I’m sure we may see a few strikes with the goal of the capitulation of Madura, with him being allowed to flea to Moscow in exchange for not being executed.
 
To be one hundred percent honest, if the Venezuelans took out a U.S. aircraft carrier
Well didn't say sink it or take it out. But getting a shot in or two. Just being able to hit one (even if you don't disable it) is in itself a statement and would likely see the same emotional response you mentioned in earlier post from Trump acting out against Venezuela.
 
Well didn't say sink it or take it out. But getting a shot in or two. Just being able to hit one (even if you don't disable it) is in itself a statement and would likely see the same emotional response you mentioned in earlier post from Trump acting out against Venezuela.
Did the carrier group even make it there yet? I haven’t really followed this all that closely.
 
American interference in South America is historical, manifesting itself through direct military interventions such as the invasion of Panama in 1989 or support for coups d'état, such as in Guatemala in 1954. Currently, it takes the form of a "war on drugs" through military and clandestine operations, as in Venezuela, as well as direct political interference, such as threats to suspend aid to Argentina during the recent elections. This coercive diplomacy is justified by the United States as a fight against drug trafficking and the threat of regimes perceived as hostile, but it is criticized for its potential to destabilize and its disregard for national sovereignty.
Recent Examples
Venezuela: The United States is intensifying its military presence in the Caribbean (warships, nuclear submarine) and authorizing clandestine CIA operations to destabilize the government of Nicolas Maduro, as part of the fight against drug trafficking.
Argentina: The American president threatened to suspend aid if his ally Javier Milei lost the elections, which is considered interference in the country's electoral affairs.
Colombia: Relations have soured with sanctions against figures linked to the government and an increase in military operations against drug traffickers.
Historical Examples
Guatemala (1954): A military coup, supported by the CIA, overthrew the democratically elected government of Jacobo Árbenz, leading to decades of civil war.
Panama (1989): The American invasion led to the capture of President Manuel Noriega, nicknamed "Operation Just Cause."
Dominican Republic and Nicaragua: The United States conducted multiple military interventions in these countries between the early and mid-20th century.
Operation Condor: This secret cooperation between several South American military regimes, with the support of the United States, allowed for the elimination of political opponents throughout the continent.
 
American interference in South America is historical, manifesting itself through direct military interventions such as the invasion of Panama in 1989 or support for coups d'état, such as in Guatemala in 1954. Currently, it takes the form of a "war on drugs" through military and clandestine operations, as in Venezuela, as well as direct political interference, such as threats to suspend aid to Argentina during the recent elections. This coercive diplomacy is justified by the United States as a fight against drug trafficking and the threat of regimes perceived as hostile, but it is criticized for its potential to destabilize and its disregard for national sovereignty.
Recent Examples
Venezuela: The United States is intensifying its military presence in the Caribbean (warships, nuclear submarine) and authorizing clandestine CIA operations to destabilize the government of Nicolas Maduro, as part of the fight against drug trafficking.
Argentina: The American president threatened to suspend aid if his ally Javier Milei lost the elections, which is considered interference in the country's electoral affairs.
Colombia: Relations have soured with sanctions against figures linked to the government and an increase in military operations against drug traffickers.
Historical Examples
Guatemala (1954): A military coup, supported by the CIA, overthrew the democratically elected government of Jacobo Árbenz, leading to decades of civil war.
Panama (1989): The American invasion led to the capture of President Manuel Noriega, nicknamed "Operation Just Cause."
Dominican Republic and Nicaragua: The United States conducted multiple military interventions in these countries between the early and mid-20th century.
Operation Condor: This secret cooperation between several South American military regimes, with the support of the United States, allowed for the elimination of political opponents throughout the continent.
It’s all goes back to the Monroe doctrine, the U.S. will never let a hostile government have power in the western hemisphere without some sort of intervention.
 
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