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UA-RU-NATO | Discussions
- Thread starter Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱
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Yep all the toys in the world aren't any use without boots to man them.
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Hypothetical: China begins supplying RU with artillery and shells, tanks, drones, etc, in a big way. In the China way of mass production which honestly dwarfs most / all other countries...
What happens next? Play this out four or five levels of consequences.
I think it spirals towards world war.
What happens next? Play this out four or five levels of consequences.
I think it spirals towards world war.
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- defconwarningsystem
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It would certainly prolong the war. But in addition to ammunition, Russia also has a limited supply of public patience. They may be able to suppress the media, but the public knows that this war is taking a smidge longer than the three days originally predicted.
How long can Russia keep throwing bodies into the fire before the public starts to get restless and Russia starts having domestic problems?
Just for the very reason why China cannot buy any more oil or gas from Russia than they currently are is the very reason why China won't be able to supply on a very Mass scale any weapons to Russia.
The Territory between Russia and China is very expensive, deadly, and impassable in virtually all of it. There is very limited infrastructure and very limited roads or railway between Russia and china.
So before China can even start sending Russia any weapons on a mass scale let alone buying oil or gas on a mass scale they need to build up the infrastructure between their two Nations which will take significant time.
Russia and China already have infrastructure projects in motion to help better connect the two countries but it is still years and years off before they finish.
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IYO, you think Putin more optimistic then he actually is. IMO, Russia is hoping for the settlement you are talking about, but it is actually waiting that we lose not the "will", but the "capacity", to continue to waste amounts of weaponery and ammunition...
this is not precisely what we could name "a battle plan". If you think to defeat Russia with hopes... and what about if the "supply of public patience" is not so limited and even not so important, what's the program? To keep going to give to Ukraine the huge amount of ammunitions that EU doesn't have, against Russia that never finishes to be on the verge to be out of ammunitions?
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Russian soldiers stop receiving salaries: complaints coming from all over Russia
Translate article, seems ok:
Russian soldiers stop receiving salaries: complaints coming from all over Russia
The conscripts and contract soldiers in Russia are not paid promised salaries, allowances and social benefits.www.pravda.com.ua
Original Source in Russian.
«Бесплатно, что ли, воевать начнём?» - Вёрстка
Мобилизованным и контрактникам задерживают и не платят обещанные зарплаты, надбавки и соцвыплатыverstka.media
Maybe if this was Pay to Win.....Come on Pooty Pooh, have to get those cheat codes in before you start the game.
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- defconwarningsystem
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There are two ways to win a war.
One is to defeat them militarily. That isn't going to happen. Ukraine doesn't have the armaments or the manpower.
The second is to wear down their will to fight.
So yeah, it is a battle plan. A long, drawn out, bloody one. But one that has worked numerous times in the past. Russia's Afghanistan war just off the top of my head.
If Russia's public patience is greater than the West's, then Russia has an advantage.
Well, your argument presumes that Russia will never run out and EU will.
Manufacture-wise, the West far, far, far outstrips Russia on that. Russia can not hope to out-manufacture the West on armament. Is the West willing to commit to that? idk.
And if Ukraine starts to shell Russian manufacturing plants, Russia has an even bigger problem.
Russia's only hope is to win the war before they run out of public patience or bodies. (I don't see them running out of ammo.)
Based on their progress, it doesn't look good for Russia when it comes to conquering Ukraine. How this eventually will all shake out is anyone's guess, though the money is on Russia holding on to some territory they captured but Russia coming out pretty wounded.
Right now, this was has exposed a very large weakness in Russia, which actually makes things more dangerous for the future.
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I don’t necessarily think Putin to be too optimistic. I think his intention to play the long game, at huge cost, might work out for him. I’m not sure about that, but I can certainly see possible scenarios where it works out for him.
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Isn’t that the real bitch of war.
The whole reason nations end up in a war is precisely because they cannot see with hind site the outcome of the war. So they judge and estimate the gain loss of committing to war and move towards it.
Russia miscalculated I’m thinking the west would fold and not respond with aid and support. There were amply reasons to believe the west would respond as they have done thus far.
But they were wrong and here we are.
As the director had mentioned, Will Russian will outlast western will? I don’t know either.
China has every reason in the world to support Russia. It weakens western resolve regarding Taiwan. If Russia prevails it lays the perception of defending Taiwan as even less appealing.
The west simply cannot lay down on this. It has just as many feared moved towards a zero sum game.
Influence in Taiwan Asia Africa it’s all up for grabs now.
Well done touting the horn of “Russian Sphere of influence” claims. You all got your wish.
It’s also exactly the reason resorting to nuclear war is such a limited prospect.
Everyone has a fairly clear understanding of how a nuclear exchange will play out. Poorly for both sides. And everyone knows is. That is why they won’t engage in one except in extreme circumstances, the outcome is fairly certain.
The whole reason nations end up in a war is precisely because they cannot see with hind site the outcome of the war. So they judge and estimate the gain loss of committing to war and move towards it.
Russia miscalculated I’m thinking the west would fold and not respond with aid and support. There were amply reasons to believe the west would respond as they have done thus far.
But they were wrong and here we are.
As the director had mentioned, Will Russian will outlast western will? I don’t know either.
China has every reason in the world to support Russia. It weakens western resolve regarding Taiwan. If Russia prevails it lays the perception of defending Taiwan as even less appealing.
The west simply cannot lay down on this. It has just as many feared moved towards a zero sum game.
Influence in Taiwan Asia Africa it’s all up for grabs now.
Well done touting the horn of “Russian Sphere of influence” claims. You all got your wish.
It’s also exactly the reason resorting to nuclear war is such a limited prospect.
Everyone has a fairly clear understanding of how a nuclear exchange will play out. Poorly for both sides. And everyone knows is. That is why they won’t engage in one except in extreme circumstances, the outcome is fairly certain.
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Afghanistan war was completely an other kind of war and situation. I don't think it fits.
the patience that has to be mobilized here is different compared to the Russian patience. Generally speaking, here, in the West and in Italy in particular, there is absolutely no consciousness of the dangers that are in place. And this is confirmed by the fact that absolutely nothing has been made (yet) in order to have an economy of war. We continue to live like before. And this I think it will continue untill a slap on the face arrives.
I have not presumed, but it is an actual possibility possibility.
US, not at all UE. Furthermore, the West, included US (but less), is very deindustrialized compared to one upon a time and the energy costs are now very expensive. And, as I repeat, absolutely nothing has been made to make an economy of war: NOTHING. The productive capacities of the UE for the war, are incomparable to the Russian ones.
Yes, and if Putin tomorrow surrenders to Ukraine all the problems will be solved. I don't think that for Ukraine could be so easy to systematically strike Russian facilities deep inside the huge territory of Russia, even behind the Urals! And it is impossible to even imagine such a scenario without take into account a larger war and a completely different level of violence. If we will arrive at that, the situation will be already got out of hand.
I am a simple observer, and if, for me, it is possible to make some hipothesis, I think that even in Russia someone can make the same reasonings: UE has made no steps in order to have an economy of war and the energy costs are very expensive. What we are doing, it's simply giving what we already have. So, what about if Russia is simply waiting, destroying the best Ukrainan and the greater part of our stocks, before to make something more incisive? This is a better "battle plan" that simply wait that someone in Russia lose patience.
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I’m not sure how you can make that claim of nato expenditures vs russian
Russian raised their defense budget to 83 billion in 2023 a 13 billion increase.
Russia Reportedly Raises $13 Billion for 2023 Defense Spending
Russia is relentlessly pounding Ukraine's energy infrastructure
www.voanews.com
Nato defense spending sans the US in 2022 was 368 billon. 1.18 trillion with the US included.
So even with out the US component European and Canadian NATO far outpaces Russia in military expenditure.
Russia is hoping to score artillery ammo from China which they will likely get. And their now rolling out T-55!
Pulling 70yr old tanks out of mothballs is not a demonstration of an endless military arsenal.
It is certainly not a military juggernaut!
Now I will acknowledge this war has become a war of attrition and who will plug along blithely and continue to fund it and send soldiers to the front the longest will be the winner.
This war was and still is for a short time a winnable conflict for nato and Ukraine.
But there is a clock ticking on how long western support will continue. Or for that matter how long Ukraine can continue.
We have not in the second half of the war delivered the weaponry Ukraine needs to displace Russia.
I dont know that we will in time.
Sadly this will likely result in a divided Ukraine.
But it will have been a very expensive lesson to Russia that all actions they conceive will not be ignored.
And before everyone goes how can a so carelessly dismiss the cost to Ukraine. I’m not Russia ass____ Ukraine and it’s an unforgivable thing. But that score will be settled on another day.
When it over settle the boarders where they lay and invite what if Ukraine still free post haste into nato.
And at the end of the day Russia will have a western boarder with nato states that are more militarized and demonstrably hostile towards Russia.
I say well done Vladimir.
You unnecessarily destroyed a nation, your “Slavic brothers”.
You sent 200000 of your sons to their death
You depleted your military stores
And made an enemy of your largest trading partner of the last thirty years.
It was simply a brilliant strategy to win friends and influence people.
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I remember the simple truth that all military plans are perfect until blooded with the enemy.
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- Dec 6, 2021
Is it just me thinking ww3 is knocking on the door? All the things happen right now with iran/Israel, china/north korea/us/japan..
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Yet we are still at defcon 5. What level will we be at if war does breaks out, level 4. As a warning site we are to conservative and now the site will probably over react when something does happen from the shock factor. Sorry off topic.
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I agree we could see an outbreak of escalating violence or attacks almost any where right now.
But what will that be like? I dot. See a major war per say between the major powers. None of them are what you would call flush with a war chest. China needs oil to engage in a major sea war. Russia needs supplies and a better reason.
The west is tired and stretched thin as well.
So more proxy war yeah maybe.
A lot will probably turn on Mideast and Africa.
Lot of things up in the air and your guess is as good as any.
I don’t see nuclear war unless some fool sells the plan that some sort of destabilizing strike might be successful. And I still think that a hard sell.
Right now I’m more concerned about more bank collapses
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- Sep 9, 2015
This Defcon level is for Radioactivity, not hot war or Russians pissing themselves getting slaughtered in Ukraine.
The best thing I have read yet in this thread is the point that we are giving what we have, not geared up and supplying new equipment. (KUDOS TO BARTOK!)
China can (Imho will) give “shitloads” of support to Russia. But they don’t want Russia to win, just fight. artillery and drones are not going to be viewed by the public as an escalation on China’s part. But it will keep Russia in the fight. There will come a point were the US’s inventory is lowest and our near non-existent industries lead time is farthest, when China can invade Formosa with the greatest likelihood of victory. China is the one slowly turning up the heat and we (the west) are actually the frog , whilst we believe we are doing that to Russia.
China ends up with as much Cheap energy from Russia she wants, a hugely weaker frenemy on her Northern border, and faces a depleted west in the south and west.
Well played Chicoms. We are still going to put a boot up your ass but great job maximizing your potential war-fighting!
China can (Imho will) give “shitloads” of support to Russia. But they don’t want Russia to win, just fight. artillery and drones are not going to be viewed by the public as an escalation on China’s part. But it will keep Russia in the fight. There will come a point were the US’s inventory is lowest and our near non-existent industries lead time is farthest, when China can invade Formosa with the greatest likelihood of victory. China is the one slowly turning up the heat and we (the west) are actually the frog , whilst we believe we are doing that to Russia.
China ends up with as much Cheap energy from Russia she wants, a hugely weaker frenemy on her Northern border, and faces a depleted west in the south and west.
Well played Chicoms. We are still going to put a boot up your ass but great job maximizing your potential war-fighting!
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No they won't. They will respond appropriately to changes in any level of Nuclear military threat.
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We only react to nuclear threats. Nothing more, nothing less. Russia could devastate Ukraine from border to border and if we see no signs of nuclear escalation, we would remain at defcon 5.
Conventional wars do not impact the defcon level.
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