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UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

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HoldFast said:
If Putin could end Ukraine today, then for sure, I'd say the Balitics could be threatened in a few years as the missile and artillery and manpower inventory is stockpiled once again.

Armor and aircraft production though seems to be seriously lacking. The T14 hasn't been built in any serious numbers and I am unaware of older tank production restarts. Same goes for fighter aircraft, PAK-FA's.

In Febuary 2022, I seriously thought he was going to capture Kiev in 3 days. He failed pretty spectacularly in that. His logistics were and are a mess.

I'm not seeing Russia roll anywhere until at least 2035.
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Yeah this is kind of where I’m at with it. I don’t see the war in Ukraine ending for at least another 2-3 years so we’ll see how much the Russian economy can weather in the meantime. Russia might be a threat again at some point but much more in a hybrid capacity than a roll tanks across the border capacity, at least for a decade or so.
 
7gtz said:
I think they could take the Baltics, but not Poland.
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Not while they're fully engaged in Ukraine.

The unknown variable in this equation is not so much Russia's capabilities for waging warfare, but the support they can expect to receive from China. A Russia that gets supplied by China with large quantities of advanced weapons would be incalculably more dangerous to its adversaries in Europe and America.

Notably, this incursion comes hot on the heels of the Putin/Xi/Kim summit.
 
DarkNoon said:
Did you notice Iran didn't put any restrictions on Russia using its drones in NATO territory?
https://twitter.com/x/status/1965770915687587992

I know its a commentary/comedy account. But still valid point.
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The Gerans are Russian-made drones that can be best described as inspired by Shaheds. They're not actually "Iranian drones" in any meaningful sense. Moreover, we've yet to hear any confirmation that a Geran flew into Poland - all to-date reports are of Gerbera decoy drones (also not Iran-made) + parts of an "unidentified" missile.
 
Bravo said:
These are no Polish Troops, these are German Units. Maybe on a way to exercise. Given to the Blue Flags, this is in Germany
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NATO drills ongoing in Poland as a response to Zapad-2025. In terms of the personnel involved, these would actually be similar to the alleged true scale of Zapad (roughly 40 thousand troops on either side) as reported by the Lithuanian MoD.
 
So, what does the SWOT analysis look like from Russia's perspective as regards this kerfuffle? Well, here's my (simplified) take:

Upsides:
  • Compels Poland and other countries on the Eastern flank of NATO to commit AD resources to their own defense, which potentially reduces the scale of their support for Ukraine,
  • Tests NATO response mechanisms as a crucial step in Russia's ongoing preparations for war with NATO,
  • Represents a step towards conditioning NATO countries and their populaces to accept such provocations as the "new normal",
  • Reinforces the propaganda narrative that Russia is "winning the war" against the collective West and pushing NATO back,
  • Also gives the opportunity to paint any retaliatory measures as "NATO aggression against Russia" - given that, according to official propaganda, there's supposedly "no evidence" that the drones that flew into Poland were Russian,
  • Is useful in gauging the true scale of the US commitment to NATO.
Downsides:
  • Risks accelerating the already ongoing militarization of Europe,
  • Puts Russia-aligned regional governments (Hungary and Slovakia) in a diplomatic tight spot,
  • Risks upsetting the ongoing process of US withdrawal from Europe.
The bottom line appears rather favorable to Russia and its geopolitical goals, so I'm not surprised they decided to do that. I expect further provocations in the (near) future.
 
7gtz said:
In the past 3 days:
  • Russian helicopter enters Estonian airspace
  • 12 Russian drones enter Poland
  • 2 aircraft enter Lithuania
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Devil’s advocate;

Estonia border is pretty tight minor excursions used to happen all the time. Its just radar and reporting has gotten better. (Flip side navigation is several orders of magnitude now versus say the first Gulf War. (High quality dual and even multi band receivers with the cpu cycles to power it.)

Lithuania: has a pretty tight border (lots of turns) still almost certainly on purpose, but giving that Russia is currently the bellwether of excellence in military equipment it could have been headed towards Poland.

And finally, speaking of Poland…I have nothing. Absolutely on purpose unless of course headed somewhere else for mischief.

My take away is the Russians are mapping NATO’s detection capabilities and response times and protocol (which are abysmal)

I think this activity and activities like them have been taking place continuously since the dawn of flight.

We now can detect drones (and very small ones on a point defense) In the 1960s to the 1970 countries began to be able to detect nearly all high flying planes, do we went low. Very low. Now those days are over.

I’m not sure how much of it is just common Russian craftsmanship. They are maddening. They can design and “one off” some of the best planes and missiles on the planet. Really good stuff but <shakes head> can’t produce anything but sub standard or worse aviation equipment. It simply crazy.

I’m not going to get excited over it or anything else except Article 5 hearings or fatal drone strikes.
 
Torch said:
O

Devil’s advocate;

Estonia border is pretty tight minor excursions used to happen all the time. Its just radar and reporting has gotten better. (Flip side navigation is several orders of magnitude now versus say the first Gulf War. (High quality dual and even multi band receivers with the cpu cycles to power it.)

Lithuania: has a pretty tight border (lots of turns) still almost certainly on purpose, but giving that Russia is currently the bellwether of excellence in military equipment it could have been headed towards Poland.

And finally, speaking of Poland…I have nothing. Absolutely on purpose unless of course headed somewhere else for mischief.

My take away is the Russians are mapping NATO’s detection capabilities and response times and protocol (which are abysmal)

I think this activity and activities like them have been taking place continuously since the dawn of flight.

We now can detect drones (and very small ones on a point defense) In the 60-70 countries began to be able to detect high flying planes, do we went low. Very low. Now those days are over.

I’m not sure how much of it is common Russian craftsmanship. They are maddening. They can design and “one off” some of the best planes and missiles on the planet. Really good stuff but <shakes head> can’t produce anything but sub standard or worse aviation equipment. It simply crazy.

I’m not going to get excited over it or anything else except Article 5 hearings or fatal drone strikes.
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Too many coincidences to be excused now, IMO. With respect to Poland, drones made it 400KM inside and halfway to Germany. There were 19-23 drones present in Allied airspace, many launched straight from Western Belarus. There's no way to wiggle out of this for Russia; not to mention those drones are very good with navigation - I've personally seen videos of them divebomb bus stands but then pull up last moment before impact to terrorise civilians. They're nimble and precise when Russia wants them to be, but somehow they're junk somehow going straight into NATO airspace other times.
 
Torch said:
We now can detect drones (and very small ones on a point defense) In the 1960s to the 1970 countries began to be able to detect nearly all high flying planes, do we went low. Very low. Now those days are over.

I’m not sure how much of it is just common Russian craftsmanship. They are maddening. They can design and “one off” some of the best planes and missiles on the planet. Really good stuff but <shakes head> can’t produce anything but sub standard or worse aviation equipment. It simply crazy.
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Horses for courses. Behold the "really good stuff" in all of its styrofoam-and-duct-tape glory:
1757517225380.png

One can't help but think how many such drones you can get for the price of one AD interceptor.

"Cheap stuff en masse" has always been the Russian way of waging war. Applies to soldiers as well.
 
Snowfall said:
I’ve contemplated how I feel about this since I went to sleep last night. First I’m glad NATO actually shot them down and I legitimately don’t think the kremlin expected them to do so. Second I think the more dangerous scenario than calling this a “violation not an attack” was to invoke article 5 and for the alliance to vote no and show no unity in the face of these hybrid war acts. Third as long as NATO makes some kind of legitimate response in the form of sanctions they otherwise refused to implement or a very large arms delivery I don’t call it a failure yet. I’m glad they decided to actually invoke Article 4 and I’m hoping that we’ll see a concrete response from this.
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No response ,,signals no Nato resolve and will be the win for the Kremlin. Sometimes a bully needs to get a black eye…… Just sayin’
 
Socom7 said:
Horses for courses. Behold the "really good stuff" in all of its styrofoam-and-duct-tape glory:
View attachment 7803

One can't help but think how many such drones you can get for the price of one AD interceptor.

"Cheap stuff en masse" has always been the Russian way of waging war. Applies to soldiers as well.
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But that IS really good stuff if you can make and launch waves of the undetected.

But you are correct. I was mostly referring to missiles, rockets and planes. Discounting everything is dangerous. Whose Rockets do we ride to the ISS. Who makes the BUK air defense system (really good record on airlines atm) actually a very lethal system as are some of their aircraft.

But this is getting way off course.
The drones cross border flights are certainly deliberate. Russia is ahead this round.
 
Russia has passed its test against NATO-US, now the path is clear for Russia. Trump's reaction was lukewarm, especially since the NATO commander in Europe is American.
 
Well let’s not panic just yet. The drones were shot down. The initial public response is condemnation.
It’s not an act of full scale war.
There is a short period open for them to formulate a planned response. It’s short and they do need to respond in some material way. Additional deployment to Eastern Europe.
Seems the French gov might have been right about war next spring.
 
Lostpuppy said:
No response ,,signals no Nato resolve and will be the win for the Kremlin. Sometimes a bully needs to get a black eye…… Just sayin’
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Shooting them down is a response though. It shows NATO isn’t going to continue to allow these drones to fly through unimpeded. Obviously sanctions, restrictions removals, increased activity in the eastern flank should all be done, but everyone sitting here acting like NATO did nothing is doing nothing but helping the kremlin. There are also more extreme steps they could take but many of them do nothing but advance the kremlins points about NATO encroachment with little to benefit for Ukraine. When you have the big stick sometimes you have to speak softly, it doesn’t mean you’re weak it means you’re patient.
 
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Snowfall said:
Shooting them down is a response though. It shows NATO isn’t going to continue to allow these drones to fly through unimpeded. Obviously sanctions, restrictions removals, increased activity in the eastern flank should all be done, but everyone sitting here acting like NATO did nothing is doing nothing but helping the kremlin. There are also more extreme steps they could take but many of them do nothing but advance the kremlins points about NATO encroachment with little to benefit for Ukraine. When you have the big stick sometimes you have to speak softly, it doesn’t mean you’re weak it means you’re patient.
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There is aseriously perfect move, not sanctions, but take Russias 300 billion held in limbo.
Agression has a cost. If the US or Euro nations need to spend on defence and weapons assistance to the Ukraine,,, deduct all costs from the 300 billion.
China signed a security agrrement with Ukraine on or around 2012, they got in turn a unfinished aircraft carrier and technology,
I guess that agreement didnt work out for ukraine.
So yes, not a big stick, but at least a tap in Russias wallet might be most appropriate. Sanctions are being end run from the businesses in bed with Russia.

As for the kremlins narrative, they are the agressor, they are not the victim!

History is definitly rhyming!
 
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