🗣️US-Israel (&) Iran-Lebanon | Memorandum of Understanding Was Signed | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[DarkNoon]

I’m devastated because I thought this was the decisive moment, and it wasn’t. This was the final nail in Americas coffin it made itself.

I have nothing else to say.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Do we have any information on what the peace deal contains?

Also note that it isn't being signed until the 19th. Lots can happen between now and then. And afterwards.

 

[Snowfall]

Do we have any information on what the peace deal contains?

Also note that it isn't being signed until the 19th. Lots can happen between now and then. And afterwards.

I think it’s gonna be awhile before we find out. Neither side is going to tell the whole truth right now, but I can’t imagine the U.S. signing a deal that doesn’t involve at least the strait being opened and some sort of deal on nukes.

 

[Winnitude]

Let me get this straight. Israel is not party to the agreement, but a hard condition for Iran has been thus far that Israel stop striking Lebanon. The US and Lebanon are parties - which directly indicates that it is still a relevant term or Lebanon would not be involved - but the US is not the one striking Lebanon. Yes?

This agreement is going to be toilet paper

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-iran-peace-deal-9.7235112

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

and some sort of deal on nukes.

My concern is that the deal will be "we'll discuss it later". Meaning...nothing.

Let me get this straight. Israel is not party to the agreement, but a hard condition for Iran has been thus far that Israel stop striking Lebanon.

This would be an extreme betrayal of Israel.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

This agreement is going to be toilet paper

Once we get the actual details of the real agreement, The DEFCON Warning System will be analysing it.

 

[Winnitude]

This would be an extreme betrayal of Israel.

I edited my post to source where I read the related info. I am not sure what you mean, whether it would be a betrayal on Israel's part of they continued strikes and sabotaged the deal or if it would be a betrayal on the US part to push them into a deal that requires them to stop fighting in Lebanon, but Israeli strikes on lebanon have reactivated fighting in this conflict already once and it has been publicly one of Iran's demands that they end. So it raises the concern, if Israel isn't party to this agreement, then it may be empty. Israel continues their operations in Lebanon, Iran continues bombing targets.

I guess we will see if its still a term later on, but Lebanon being a party to the agreement tells me it must be.

 

[Winnitude]

Once we get the actual details of the real agreement, The DEFCON Warning System will be analysing it.

Of course. I'm not asking you to analyze it here immediately, this is my analysis/2c based on the current reports as other members post theirs in these threads all the time. Edited to include the article I read as I realized the rhetorical Yes? reads like a question without it

 

[Librarylady]

I edited my post to source where I read the related info. I am not sure what you mean, whether it would be a betrayal on Israel's part of they continued strikes and sabotaged the deal or if it would be a betrayal on the US part to push them into a deal that requires them to stop fighting in Lebanon, but Israeli strikes on lebanon have reactivated fighting in this conflict already once and it has been publicly one of Iran's demands that they end. So it raises the concern, if Israel isn't party to this agreement, then it may be empty. Israel continues their operations in Lebanon, Iran continues bombing targets.

I guess we will see if its still a term later on, but Lebanon being a party to the agreement tells me it must be.

It's Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Iran, that's reactivated the fighting in Lebanon. Israel has been striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon in response to their strikes FROM Lebanon into civilian areas within Israel. Unless the Lebanese government actually reins in Hezbollah in then Israel will keep responding tit-for-tat on Lebanese soil.

 

[RiffRaff]

That's the closest I could get to a "holding my breath" emoji...

 

[Publius]

It's Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Iran, that's reactivated the fighting in Lebanon. Israel has been striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon in response to their strikes FROM Lebanon into civilian areas within Israel. Unless the Lebanese government actually reins in Hezbollah in then Israel will keep responding tit-for-tat on Lebanese soil.

Yeap! At least as far as this past week goes. It is implied the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is included in the memorandum. It’s reported that Iran funding of proxy conflicts is to end as well. This would include Iranian support of Hezbollah. Which obviously Hezbollah leadership will not be happy with just as some of the IRGC won’t want to see a normalization of relations between Iran and Israel

Here’s the problem, terrorist leadership is almost always committed to a continuation of violence. It’s they’re way of life after all. What is a long term terrorist leader to do if peace breaks out.

Hezbollah was formed in 1982 by Shia Clerics. As a point of comparison Hamas was formed in June 2007. So Hezbollah will be much harder to root out than Hamas was.

I don’t believe the Lebanon’s gov alone is able to suppress Hezbollah. And as it appears Israel is not going to quit striking Hezbollah targets in retaliation for Hezbollah missile attacks into northern Israel.

So this is going to be a stumbling block for an end to hostilities. Which is likely why Trump called out Netanyahu for the latest round of air strikes in Beirut.

So what can be inferred today is the active negotiations continue, there remains a lot of stumbling blocks. So we are just going to have to wait and see.

 

[GBS61]

According to my sources, IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi has agreed not to stand in the way of a deal, despite not supporting it
DEFCON Warning System: Uh oh. That can't be good for the West.

OH! OH! This is not good for the USA and Israel. Israel is not part of the West. The only Western country to have participated in this war is the USA. The others did not participate, and the USA did not ask anyone to.

 

[GBS61]

In my opinion, this is an electoral ploy. Trump needs to regain his partisan base before November 2026. Many are against this war, and if he loses, he will be impeached. I wouldn't be surprised if Israel doesn't respect this agreement, and I predict that the US will abandon Israel.

 

[RiffRaff]

In my opinion, this is an electoral ploy. Trump needs to regain his partisan base before November 2026. Many are against this war, and if he loses, he will be impeached. I wouldn't be surprised if Israel doesn't respect this agreement, and I predict that the US will abandon Israel.

The US abandoning Israel would hurt Trump with his conservative base much more than "losing" the war or the war still ongoing during midterms. There is a evangelical subsect that is actively trying to bring about Armageddon in the Middle East in order to bring about the second coming. It is not an insignificant part of Trump's base.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

OH! OH! This is not good for the USA and Israel. Israel is not part of the West. The only Western country to have participated in this war is the USA. The others did not participate, and the USA did not ask anyone to.

Anything that happens to Iran will affect the entire West.

 

[Winnitude]

The US abandoning Israel would hurt Trump with his conservative base much more than "losing" the war or the war still ongoing during midterms. There is a evangelical subsect that is actively trying to bring about Armageddon in the Middle East in order to bring about the second coming. It is not an insignificant part of Trump's base.

(This post does loop around to the war btw its not totally politics but feel free to move if the political side is too significant for the analysis/talking point to fit)

Its for that reason that the coming elections will be a wash for the GOP. It's impossible to make decisions around retaining or winning (back) the christian nationalists, far right authoritarians, center right apolitical normies who like how he talks, wild libertarians, neocons, paleocons, shitposters and disillusioned dems/protest votes who coalesced to win him 2016 and 2024. Their interests are far too disparate and any move to win over any one will push away the others.

I don't know if this realization has hit Trump yet though. But for this reason I'm suspicious of the idea that there are major strategic decisions being made around the midterms. Domestic issues dominate midterms especially considering Congress is toothless, too, AFAIK. I am of the opinion that we have reached the point where there must be either decisive victory through an incredible and shocking operation or a complete withdrawal with terms favorable to Iran (seems to the case based on IRGC statement) to un-fuck-the-cluster and prevent irreparable economic disaster from hitting EU and cascading to NA, and Trump has been too hesitant to go boots on the ground but also too stubborn to play ball with the iranians due to decision paralysis and we are seeing him relent and take the easy way out (which historically is not out of character, TACO is a thing for a reason). My speculative 2c hopefully well explained enough to follow my reasoning

 

[Winnitude]

It's Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Iran, that's reactivated the fighting in Lebanon. Israel has been striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon in response to their strikes FROM Lebanon into civilian areas within Israel. Unless the Lebanese government actually reins in Hezbollah in then Israel will keep responding tit-for-tat on Lebanese soil.

Yeah we've seen how much power the Lebanese nation state has over Hezbollah already. Ty for the correction, however, the point underlying it is materially the same, not all combatants are party to the agreement, Hezbollah independent of the Lebanese government with no hard power over them nor Israel. You'd think Israel would at least sign with Lebanon given if Hezbollah strikes it would break Lebanon's side of the deal and they'd be able to fight back still, so it still strikes me as interesting that they are not party. It tells me they are confident that fighting will not stop.

 

[Winnitude]

Let me get this straight. Israel is not party to the agreement, but a hard condition for Iran has been thus far that Israel stop striking Lebanon. The US and Lebanon are parties - which directly indicates that it is still a relevant term or Lebanon would not be involved - but the US is not the one striking Lebanon. Yes?

This agreement is going to be toilet paper

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-iran-peace-deal-9.7235112

https://twitter.com/x/status/2066590138260684878

Guess I was right but instead of Hezbollah and Israel it's just straight up Israel sabotaging the deal by not being party and continuing the war directly with Iran (or, to be conspiratorial, the deal could be theater for further market manipulation and the US and Israel are on the same page, but there is no direct evidence for this). Whether that's a good thing or not varies by perspective but that appears to be what it is.

My money is on Iran retaliating with the same pressure tactic of striking US bases and allies and dragging in the US again to have them pressure Israel, or the US abandons Israel, there are only 2 roads here

 

[Librarylady]

Guess I was right but instead of Hezbollah and Israel it's just straight up Israel sabotaging the deal by not being party and continuing the war directly with Iran (or, to be conspiratorial, the deal could be theater for further market manipulation and the US and Israel are on the same page, but there is no direct evidence for this). Whether that's a good thing or not varies by perspective but that appears to be what it is.

My money is on Iran retaliating with the same pressure tactic of striking US bases and allies and dragging in the US again to have them pressure Israel, or the US abandons Israel, there are only 2 roads here

If Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel from its bases in Lebanon then it's common sense for Israel to strike Hezbollah's bases in Lebanon. It's not a matter of sabotaging a US peace process that Israel is not a party to -- it's a matter of self defense. If a terrorist group set up shop in Canada and routinely attacked the US from there we'd be bombing them, too --regardless of the Canadian government.

 

[Librarylady]

Yeap! At least as far as this past week goes. It is implied the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is included in the memorandum. It’s reported that Iran funding of proxy conflicts is to end as well. This would include Iranian support of Hezbollah. Which obviously Hezbollah leadership will not be happy with just as some of the IRGC won’t want to see a normalization of relations between Iran and Israel

Here’s the problem, terrorist leadership is almost always committed to a continuation of violence. It’s they’re way of life after all. What is a long term terrorist leader to do if peace breaks out.

Hezbollah was formed in 1982 by Shia Clerics. As a point of comparison Hamas was formed in June 2007. So Hezbollah will be much harder to root out than Hamas was.

I don’t believe the Lebanon’s gov alone is able to suppress Hezbollah. And as it appears Israel is not going to quit striking Hezbollah targets in retaliation for Hezbollah missile attacks into northern Israel.

So this is going to be a stumbling block for an end to hostilities. Which is likely why Trump called out Netanyahu for the latest round of air strikes in Beirut.

So what can be inferred today is the active negotiations continue, there remains a lot of stumbling blocks. So we are just going to have to wait and see.

True. Lebanon's government has very little -- if any control -- over Hezbollah. Iran knows this very well and will used continuing Hezbollah-Israeli hostilities as a reason to break the deal. Hopefully, Trump is aware of this and is only going through with this charade in order to be able to show critics that he was willing to make a favorable peace deal with Iran and they blew blew it.