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UA-RU-NATO War & Ukraine Peace Talks | DISCUSSIONS

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OReid said:
So aside from the fact you don’t like how Trump is approaching this.

Exactly what is the long term outcome for the war. It’s fairly evident that the combined war effort of Ukraine and nato’s support is not pushing Russia to capitulate.
So how long should this effort be continued and what are the real world outcome of this war continuing. Do you have a plausible plan on how it might conclude favorably?

Or do we just continue it out of some principled hubris. Telling ourselves we are the righteous and this righteousness will validate any outcome. Be that another 100,000 dead, Ukraine falling, or greater war across Europe and Russia with all of the possible consequences there.

Im not proposing red herrings, they are real world potential outcomes.

I agree with you we cannot capitulate to Russia’s ridiculous demands. I disagree that this is what Trump has done or is heading for.
It’s a process that is all I’m saying.
I argue the either or because in the end this is what it comes down to.
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Let me address your question, and maybe DN will agree with me:

Possible Scenarios for End to Russia/Ukraine War:
Negotiated retreat of Russian forces except for Crimea. I would love for Ukraine to get Crimea back, but it's not going to happen. Don't know what Putin would have to be promised to make this work, but this is the second best-case scenario.

Negotiated end to hostilities with Russia keeping Ukrainian territory in the SE it already controls. This sucks for Ukraine, but Zelensky needs to look at the long-term cost of this war in lives, money, and destruction. It will take YEARS to rebuild. Unfortunately, I think this would simply result in another Russian invasion in another ten years.

Complete shutdown of US support to Ukraine. This would be a very bad decision. The rest of Europe would not accept the possible loss of Ukraine to Russia, and they would step up their support, potentially including troops on ground. This option would eventually end in a direct Russia/EU conflict, with the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Full-on commitment to Ukraine to reestablish 1994 borders as guaranteed by the Budapest Memorandum. Basically, call Putin's bluff on use of nuclear weapons and launch the biggest conventional counterattack since World War 2 to drive Russian forces out of Ukraine. I give that option 50/50 odds of succeeding. If it does succeed, it is the best-case scenario because it would end the war quickly and decisively, as well as deter future Russian aggression against Europe. If it doesn't succeed, it would be because Putin does resort to nuclear weapons, with all that entails.

Maintain status quo. Basically, another Afghanistan situation. 20 years of war with little to show for it when it finally ends. Trump and Putin will both be dead by then, so maybe new leaders could work out a viable peace deal.

Surprise preemptive nuclear strike against Russian strategic assets, followed by an ultimatum that any retaliation would result in a full-scale nuclear response. Essentially, take Russia off the world chess board as a nuclear superpower. Not a likely scenario, and it probably wouldn't end well, but I know there were plans like this for the Soviet Union. My guess is they're still around somewhere.
 
RiffRaff said:
Let me address your question, and maybe DN will agree with me:

Possible Scenarios for End to Russia/Ukraine War:
Negotiated retreat of Russian forces except for Crimea. I would love for Ukraine to get Crimea back, but it's not going to happen. Don't know what Putin would have to be promised to make this work, but this is the second best-case scenario.

Negotiated end to hostilities with Russia keeping Ukrainian territory in the SE it already controls. This sucks for Ukraine, but Zelensky needs to look at the long-term cost of this war in lives, money, and destruction. It will take YEARS to rebuild. Unfortunately, I think this would simply result in another Russian invasion in another ten years.

Complete shutdown of US support to Ukraine. This would be a very bad decision. The rest of Europe would not accept the possible loss of Ukraine to Russia, and they would step up their support, potentially including troops on ground. This option would eventually end in a direct Russia/EU conflict, with the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Full-on commitment to Ukraine to reestablish 1994 borders as guaranteed by the Budapest Memorandum. Basically, call Putin's bluff on use of nuclear weapons and launch the biggest conventional counterattack since World War 2 to drive Russian forces out of Ukraine. I give that option 50/50 odds of succeeding. If it does succeed, it is the best-case scenario because it would end the war quickly and decisively, as well as deter future Russian aggression against Europe. If it doesn't succeed, it would be because Putin does resort to nuclear weapons, with all that entails.

Maintain status quo. Basically, another Afghanistan situation. 20 years of war with little to show for it when it finally ends. Trump and Putin will both be dead by then, so maybe new leaders could work out a viable peace deal.

Surprise preemptive nuclear strike against Russian strategic assets, followed by an ultimatum that any retaliation would result in a full-scale nuclear response. Essentially, take Russia off the world chess board as a nuclear superpower. Not a likely scenario, and it probably wouldn't end well, but I know there were plans like this for the Soviet Union. My guess is they're still around somewhere.
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Many more options as well. But giving Putin everything he wants to end the war is not the right move. Nor is fighting it forever.

Just have a problem how that this situation is often presented or heavily Insinuated as only a binary solution to the whole mess that Russia started. Either total capitulation or forever war seems to be the only options ever presented in debates and it's a TOTAL red herring and should be called out everytime.
 
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DarkNoon said:
Many more options as well. But giving Putin everything he wants to end the war is not the right move. Nor is fighting it forever.

Just have a problem how that this situation is often presented as only a binary solution to the whole mess. Either total capitulation or forever war seems to be the only options ever presented in debates and it's a TOTAL red herring and should be called out everytime.
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That's not what OReid is doing. He offered options:
I haven’t argued a binary solution. There are multiple ways it could play out.
We can continue on as we have done unabated supplying Ukraine with weapons.
In doing this Russia might capitulate eventually.
We can demand Ukraine has nato troops for security.
We could give Ukraine nukes, highly unlikely.
We can continue on supporting Ukraine until their government falls.
We can send troops in now.
We can employ diplomacy to try and start talks now. Rather than continuing on with our ongoing support for Ukraine.
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I think you are too close to this, for whatever reason. Take a step back and take a deep breath. Ultimately, nothing any of us say here will make any difference in what really happens. Every single one of us is discussing a hypothetical future event. Any of us could be correct. All of us could be wrong.
 
DarkNoon said:
Many more options as well. But giving Putin everything he wants to end the war is not the right move. Nor is fighting it forever.

Just have a problem how that this situation is often presented or heavily Insinuated as only a binary solution to the whole mess that Russia started. Either total capitulation or forever war seems to be the only options ever presented in debates and it's a TOTAL red herring and should be called out everytime.
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I think the biggest problem is that’s how most leaders are presenting it. You are 100% correct that there’s more than just two options.
 
Snowfall said:
I think the biggest problem is that’s how most leaders are presenting it. You are 100% correct that there’s more than just two options.
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Yes I wasn't talking about Oried when making my past couple posts, really criticizing Trump, Trump officials, & other world leaders. Just that leaders today seem to only think or present it as the only two options and often gets echoed in that way in debates because of it.

RiffRaff said:
That's not what OReid is doing. He offered options:

I think you are too close to this, for whatever reason. Take a step back and take a deep breath. Ultimately, nothing any of us say here will make any difference in what really happens. Every single one of us is discussing a hypothetical future event. Any of us could be correct. All of us could be wrong.
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Yea I know where the door is... think I've made my point as clear as I can.
 
Incognito said:
So he is nogtiating. The Art of Negotiating.

Staff Edit: Please keep personal political commentary out of discussion threads.
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I did state facts. Everything I said was perpetrated by Russia inflicted upon the Ukraininas. It's been in the TV news, news papers, magazines and youtube. It has been documented. EVERYTHING. Here are some examples:

Wikipedia.org
War crimes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

GOV.UK There is mounting evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces: UK statement to the OSCE

Amnesty International
Ukraine/Russia: Justice for Ukraine means accountability for all crimes committed by Russia since 2014

Radio Free Europe
Ukraine Alleges 150,000 Possible Russian War Crimes. Here Are 5 Of The Worst
 
Incognito said:
I did state facts. Everything I said was perpetrated by Russia inflicted upon the Ukraininas. It's been in the TV news, news papers, magazines and youtube. It has been documented. EVERYTHING. Here are some examples:
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Once again, it's not what you said so much as how you said it. That is neither analysis nor productive discussion. And not ALL Russians are pirates, theives, murders, rapeist, kidnappers, liers, terrorist, and torturist.
 
RiffRaff said:
Once again, it's not what you said so much as how you said it. That is neither analysis nor productive discussion. And not ALL Russians are pirates, theives, murders, rapeist, kidnappers, liers, terrorist, and torturist.
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I see your reasoning RiffRaff. No, NOT ALL Russians are. I was liking Russians before 2014 and thought Russians and Americans were beginning to get on the same page with positive relations. This war has soured my view.

Even if I went to war I could never treat my enemy the way Russian troops have done to Ukrain citizens.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I will agree with you. Giving in to Russia just encourages them to do more of the same. And China will be watching as well.
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That would be true if we were actually in the back and forth negotiations phase of the talks.

The issue I have is the position that Trump has already somehow already caved to Putin. It is used at the mere mention of negotiations. Or when pressure is placed on Europe to work as a unified entity to approach negotiations.

We all know what Putin’s opening demands are and what Ukraines are.
Ukraine has not been denied their request or demand for European peace keepers after the war by the US so it is obviously something that is on the table for options for Ukraine.

Very little has publicly been said to russias demands. And if we hope to even set down and have negotiations we cannot slam this door publicly. Well we could, and there would be no negotiations to start with.
it looks like the administration is closing a pretty large door to Russian oil sales. Including thru third party nations. By cutting off the rest of the banking transfers left in place by the last admin.
Yeah I know they weren’t cut off they weren’t “extended” which is the same result in the end.

Would someone like to explain why if russias such a threat and Ukraine should be defended without question. Why is it the Europe was still buying Russian oil?
That is the type of action that tells me European capitals commitment to nato is lacking. And I find the rants of the US abandoning nato hypocritical. They’re giving the capital to continue this war while we continue to send arms to Ukraine to drive Russia back. ?


It’s always a process for negotiations in a contentious war.

My either or point is we should either fight this war to end it, or at least give a chance at negotiations.


As I’ve said before Putin will likely walk during the first round of negotiations.
Trumps a bully pulpit leader. He does want the war to end that is correct. But he also does not like to lose. Can we all agree with that. It’s kind of overtly on display most of the time.

If Putin walks from good faith efforts to negotiate. Then Trump can use his bully pulpit to justify increasing economic and military pressure on Russia.
War is an off shoot of politics someone said here recently I believe.
Well this is part of the process.

I honestly don’t know how far and hard he will push. Given previous actions from his first term. I believe if it comes to it he will push harder than what has thus far done.
But of course that will be ridiculed as part of the MAGA cult mob mentality.


Director this is certainly not directed at you and I know it is not your nature to get into protracted debates. And that is perfectly fine.
I’m simply responding to you post in general terms
 
OReid said:
What? Zelinski implies Putin is scared of Trump? I’d love to hear some follow up questions on what that means exactly.

The puppet master is scared of the puppet.
Interesting….
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The Kremlin elite views Trump as a useful tool (in every sense of the word). While Putin knows he's the daddy in this relationship, he nevertheless views it as a long-term investment - which means his new pet has to be carefully "managed".

He's gonna find some way to make Trump believe Russia wants peace, even though it obviously doesn't. Given Trump's mental faculties, this will be very easy to accomplish.
 
Time for a refresh. Please continue Peace Talks Here: 👇👇

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Thread 'UA-RU-NATO War & Ukraine Peace Talks | Discussions'

📢 Russia wants 'ironclad' guarantee that Ukraine will be barred from NATO: official​

www.foxnews.com

Russia wants 'ironclad' guarantee that Ukraine will be barred from NATO: official

Russia is seeking an "ironclad" guarantee that Ukraine is barred from NATO and foreign troops stay out, a deputy foreign minister for the Kremlin said.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

 
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