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US, France, U.K, Give Ukraine Permission to Use Their Long Range Weapons to Strike Deep Within Russia

teekay99 said:
I'm going to throw out a different theory that I am not fully invested in. Call it a thought experiment. Feel free to tear it to shreds. :)

There may be a narrow window in which modest escalation against Russia can occur between now (well really, the POTUS election) and 20 January 2025. If Russia honestly believes President Trump will be more open to a negotiated settlement favorable to Russia, there is a chance that Russia will wait out this escalation, assuming the escalation does not kill large numbers of Russians or does not destroy Russian military facilities deemed necessary to Russian defense/existence. Maybe the Biden administration is taking advantage of this window....

If this is true, and that is a big if with tons or risk, it is certainly possible that these attacks weaken Russia to some degree perhaps reducing or undermining any Russian position of strength, which could then provide beneficial to Ukraine during future negotiations.
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I think so too. Whatever Russia's answer will be in response to a ATACSMS Strike, it might have been more appropriate and tangible if the next president wasn't going to be a wildcard.
 
Peter Griffin said:
Well when your guest is throwing the food at you that they just spit on and you are doing the same it isn't long before someone flips the damn table. If we are speaking in parables lol
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It’s not a parable though he legitimately built a massive table to keep distance during covid. I’ve said it many times that I’m sure Putin has a redline but I’m gonna place my bet this ain’t it.
 
www.rt.com

Kremlin urges foreign nations to study Russia’s new nuclear doctrine

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has highlighted the enactment of Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine
www.rt.com www.rt.com

Kremlin urges foreign nations to study Russia’s new nuclear doctrine​

Published on Tuesday, the eight-page policy statement on Russian nuclear deterrence includes changes previewed by Putin in September. It is “extremely important” and should be “the subject of very deep analysis both in our nation and, probably, abroad,” Peskov told journalists during a regular briefing.

The spokesman highlighted specific wording, which says that the doctrine “is aimed at ensuring realization by the potential enemy of the inevitability of retaliation in case of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.”
Last week, US President Joe Biden reportedly granted Kiev permission to use American-made long-range weapons to deliver strikes deep into Russia. The policy change has been confirmed by some US allies, but not by Washington itself. Putin previously said that any such attack would amount to a direct war between NATO and Russia.

Peskov was asked on Tuesday whether such a deployment would trigger a Russian nuclear strike under the new doctrine. He declined to answer directly, but mentioned that the new rules consider an attack by a non-nuclear power backed by a nuclear one as a joint attack.
Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons when its sovereignty and territorial integrity or those of its allies is at stake, the official added.
 
DarkNoon said:
☢️🇷🇺
Putin approves changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine:



www.bbc.com

Putin approves changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine

He has rubber stamped changes that were first proposed in September.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Dmitry Medvedev:
(CHAIR OF RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL)
Russia's new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they're located. That means World War III..
https://twitter.com/x/status/1858818104370884949

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er
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Not sure how worth Medvedev's tweets would be to defcon level since his tweets are directed at intimidating westerners and says nothing abour what Kreml policymakers and Putin actually think about ATACSMS.
 
DarkNoon said:
☢️🇷🇺
Putin approves changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine:



www.bbc.com

Putin approves changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine

He has rubber stamped changes that were first proposed in September.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Dmitry Medvedev:
(CHAIR OF RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL)
Russia's new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they're located. That means World War III..
https://twitter.com/x/status/1858818104370884949

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er
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I feel a bit better now that Medvedev has started running his mouth.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1858819969489781037
Here’s a good outline of the new additions to the nuclear doctrine. Note the word “massive” strike thus 1-2 ATACMs aren’t going to trigger it. Also note that it explicitly mentions cruise missiles and not tactical ballistic missiles, yes I know it says any other flying devices but if you’re going to make a threat specific to ATACMs seems like they would’ve gone for the obvious. Other than that “existence of the state” vs “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state” are basically the same thing when Putin says that Russias territorial integrity to the existence of the state.
 
Snowfall said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1858819969489781037
Here’s a good outline of the new additions to the nuclear doctrine. Note the word “massive” strike thus 1-2 ATACMs aren’t going to trigger it. Also note that it explicitly mentions cruise missiles and not tactical ballistic missiles, yes I know it says any other flying devices but if you’re going to make a threat specific to ATACMs seems like they would’ve gone for the obvious. Other than that “existence of the state” vs “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state” are basically the same thing when Putin says that Russias territorial integrity to the existence of the state.
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I still think this is in response to ATAMS. Is it that serious of a escalation if at all? No.
 
1) The rule is:
Medvedev speaks = then there's no reason to worry about
Putin and Medvedev silent = problem

2) The new doctrine was well expected and it's actually softer than what some analysts predicted during the bast weeks, they were just looking for a good opportunity to formalize it.

Of course, Russia is not going to use nukes because Ukraine uses 5/6/7 ATACMs on their soil.
Things would be different if they start targeting critical nuclear facilities.

Perfect analysis here:
www.brookings.edu

How credible is Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine?

Western governments can and should question whether the new elements of Russia’s nuclear doctrine have any real credibility.
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu
 
Just in case anyone hasn't worked it out yet.

Biden allows long range strikes.
Putin blusters that it will trigger a robust response.
Medvedev blusters that it will trigger a nuclear response.
The media panics.
Everything goes back to normal.
Trump is inaugurated.
Trump proposes a peace plan that has been pre-approved by Moscow.
Ukraine has no choice but to accept.
Some of Trump's Russian loans are written off and the publishing of proof of him being a Russian agent is delayed for another year, or until Putin needs another favour.
 
RiffRaff said:
Russian spokesperson warns of "nuclear war by Christmas" in response to allowance of long-range missiles against Russia.

MSN

www.msn.com
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Same as for the tanks, for the jets and so on...

Plus...there's starting to be the usual flood of media shit.
Sergei Markov is not a spokesperson but an academic, very close to Putin and on the same positions of Medvedev....
So....
 
Charmender said:
Same as for the tanks, for the jets and so on...

Plus...there's starting to be the usual flood of media shit.
Sergei Markov is not a spokesperson but an academic, very close to Putin and on the same positions of Medvedev....
So....
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Yes, I've made that observation in the discussion with staff. However, at some point the West is going to cross a line that will result in Russia following through on its threats. The problem is we don't really know where that line is, but we keep getting closer and closer to it.
 
Oh yeah of course...but ATACMS and French/UK versions, are more of a simbolical than a practical thing.
Despite the announcements, Ukraine and Russia know that they're available in nearly useless quantities.

Putin will not do anything weird now because he sees in Trump's election an opportunity to end the war with a win to present at home.
 
Charmender said:
Putin will not do anything weird now because he sees in Trump's election an opportunity to end the war with a win to present at home.
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You mean Trump capitulating to Putin? Call it for what it is, burying our heads in the sand...

Not saying the DEMs had much of a plan either. Still. :(
 
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DarkNoon said:
I still think this is in response to ATAMS. Is it that serious of an escalation if at all? No.
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Oh I’m sure they’re going to frame it as a response to ATACMs but western weapons have been bombing Russia for almost a year at this point, I sincerely doubt that Russia really cares that much about ATACMs being used in border regions versus the other weapons that were already being used. Now if it was something like tomahawks or we were talking about bombing Moscow with long range weapons than I think I’d be digging my bunker.
 
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