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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS 14th July - 1st October 2023

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teekay99 said:
It was more than Zelinskyy "[refusing] to simply be a border state." Russia never believed the Orange revolution was legitimate, and never believed subsequent elections to be valid. This leads me to the following interesting question:
  • If Russia never believed Zelinskyy to be legitimate, are any Russian offers of negotiation with Ukraine, either before the conflict or during the conflict, genuine offers of negotiation? After all, if you do not believe in an adversary's legitimacy to act on behalf of his or her state, do you really consider any agreement signed with the adversary to truly be binding?
Zelinskyy bending to the whim of his larger Russian neighbor would have been outright capitulation, and as I have explained before, would have been a violation of the Ukrainian presidential oath of office had Zelinskyy capitulated. And don't forget when Zelinskyy was offered evacuation by the west, he declined it by saying he did not need a ride, he needed arms. That suggests he has the courage of his convictions, a genuine desire to protect his country, and is not in it to merely put money in his pockets.

And lastly, we cannot ignore the fact that it is Russia invading Ukraine. Not the other way around. It is Russia that is killing Ukrainians. Not Zelinskyy. And if the Ukrainian people and military did not support their leader, I would think they be laying down arms and welcoming Russia in. But that is not what we are witnessing on the battlefield....

Russia can stop the fight at any time to save lives. If Russia is the nobler side in this conflict, why haven't they stopped fighting?
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Why Putin is willing to fight to the last Russian
 
mara304 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1704246217285210281
what's your point of view on this ? I feel like sometimes ukranian's info are a bit far-fetched
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Podvig is reliable; Budanov is not.

The jury is out on whether any nukes have actually been moved to Belarus. Hajun (which keeps close tabs on military traffic in Belarus) did not report any 12 GUMO convoys. Yes, Belarus has recently taken possession of some Iskanders, but nuclear warheads don't just sit inside missiles unless they're being prepped for use (this would likely be noticed and make some people in the West very nervous - we'd probably pick up on the resulting disturbance in the Force). In general, nuclear warheads require special, climate-controlled storage and maintenance arrangements, with suitable security to boot, and it's not obvious that there is any such in Belarus right now.

On the other hand we have some pretty high-ranking Western gov't officials (such as the Polish president) claiming that this deployment is underway and they're "observing it".

I'm going to say it's roughly even money on nukes currently being present in Belarus.
 
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Friendly Engineer said:
Also validates the methodology of judging Russia by their actions instead of their words. Sure, listen to what they say but don't give anywhere near as much credence to it as you would their actions. It's a good way of cutting through the bullshit.
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Hard to do when the media and the so called Twitter "experts", write whole stories and movies over the silliest sentence which comes out from one of the 2 sides mouths.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
Wow...
Just wow... I'm shocked, genuinely. Poland was the last country I'd expect to do this.
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No shock, I am sure that for most of the people from outside Europe it will be hard to understand, but you have to remember that the European Union is a union of VERY different cultures and historical interests, it's not like going from Texas to New Hampshire...it's like going from Paris to Shangai, but in 1/50th of the previous distance.

If the Poles do something (as the Hungarians and partly the Czechs) is because they expect to get something in return, it's always been in their culture and it's obviously evident when it comes to the EU policies and the kind of government they have elected in the last 20/30 years (the current one is by far the most nationalist govt in Europe, who's spent the last 3 years dealing with the EU commission due to the absurd infringement of the policies regarding the human rights and DEMOCRACY...yes...DEMOCRACY.
to make an example I'm not talking about the right to call yourself, "pansexual", I am talking about the obligation to don't enter predetermined zones if you're gay)
ec.europa.eu

Rule of Law: Commission launches infringement procedure against POLAND for violating EU law with the new law establishing a special committee

Today, the European Commission opened an infringement procedure by sending a letter of formal notice to Poland for violations of EU law.
ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu
www.euractiv.com

Commission sues Poland over court challenge to primacy of EU law | Euractiv

The European Commission will sue Poland at the European Court of Justice over challenges to the primacy of EU law made by the country's Constitutional Tribunal in two rulings in 2021.
www.euractiv.com www.euractiv.com
www.france24.com

EU takes step towards punishing Poland and Hungary

The European Commission wrote to Poland and Hungary on Friday to launch a process that could lead to them being deprived of funds over threats to the EU legal order.
www.france24.com www.france24.com
notesfrompoland.com

EU ends legal action against Poland over anti-LGBT zones

notesfrompoland.com notesfrompoland.com

It's evident that the Poles have done very good things until now, they're the country who hosted most of the Ukrainian refugees...but it's also the country which before anyone else, introduced the ban of the Ukraine's grain way before than the EU intervened with a common procedure, because their economy was getting affected.
The 2 things don't cope very well.

Besides what the media will say about the friendship and all the fairy tales which are told outside of the EU, the communitarian integration process is stuck because it's impossible to make the interests of the 2 blocks (Western and Eastern Europe) coincide.

So besides the speculations about a supposed interest by Poland of a part of Ukraine's land, which we will leave to the Russian propagandists...don't worry, no one in Poland would ever accept to fight a war triggered by the Ukrainian conflict, when they cannot even sustain a minor degradation of their own agricultural market. And the first ones who don't want this, is the Polish govt. itself, which is using this crisis to develop their military domestic industrial output.
 
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Irag8er said:
Could be a little hissy fit between the two of them over the grain export situation.
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I recall some points @Socom7 made back in July (located here) about upcoming elections in Poland, the anti-EU/anti-West proclivities of the Polish government, and sense that Poland, influenced by Russian intelligence (is that an oxymoron? :ROFLMAO: ) , thinks Germany is more of a problem than Russia. Is it possible that this decision to stop sending weapons to Ukraine is influenced by that, and the grain deal row is merely convenient cover for this shift in direction? I do not really know, which is why I am asking. It's certainly an interesting development.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
Wow...
Just wow... I'm shocked, genuinely. Poland was the last country I'd expect to do this.
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Simple mechanic at play:
  • General election due in a month
  • Polish society (or at least part of it) bored with the war and old animosities beginning to resurface
  • Ruling party (far right) struggling in the polls, and has competition in the form of even more extreme rightist forces who are clearly in Russia's pocket
  • Because of the above, ruling party has decided to co-opt the extreme right by ragging on Ukraine
  • The grain row is just a pretext
Don't expect much to change before the election, regardless of what Ukraine says or does (because, as remarked above, the grain row is a pretext and not the cause of what's going on).

Also, fair chance that Poland will explode in the aftermath of this election. The ruling party will not cede power if it loses.
 
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